Who Needs Connor Bedard the Most?

Which lottery teams will have the best odds to draft Connor Bedard?

By: Jesse Rosales

Every once in a while a player comes along who just feels different. They stand apart for their peers and from competition that should be “normal” level for their age and stage in development. We see it in all sports whether it be Lebron James, Peyton Manning, Alex Rodriguez, or Connor McDavid. The guys are scouted at a very early age and are constantly playing at a noticeably higher level than everyone else around them. Teams will literally tank their seasons for a CHANCE at drafting these kinds of prospects. Connor Bedard appears to be ready to add his name to that list of players. Is he worth that level of hype? If the recent results of the World Juniors tournament, which ended with Bedard being named MVP and his teammates raising the trophy for the second year in a row, mean anything then I think the answer is 100% yes. Oh, by the way, he is 17 years old!

NHL Draft — Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The NHL has seen many #1 overall draft picks play out very well over the 20 or so years. Check out a few of these names of #1 overall drafted players since 2004: Ovechkin, Crosby, Stamkos, MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews, Hughes. The list is impressive, and the “bust” rate is quite a bit lower than in other professional sports. This makes the #1 overall pick in hockey that much more valuable because there is less of a chance of something not working out and more of a chance of truly finding that franchise player to anchor your team around for the next 10 years.

With that in mind, let’s break down how the draft in the NHL actually works. There are quite a few rules around draft positions, but here are some of the biggies.

All teams missing the playoffs are entered into the lottery.
Teams with the least amount of points during the season, get more chances at winning the lottery (similar to NBA rules).
The 1st overall pick is awarded by drawing of ping pong balls. The lower your season points are, the more ping-pong balls you have in the mix.
Teams are only allowed to improve their positioning (if there were no lottery and it was all based on total points) twice in a 5 year period.

So as of right now, here are the top 5 teams with the highest projected chance at snagging the #1 overall seed, and Connor Bedard, according to NHL.com

Chicago Blackhawks– 25.5%
Columbus Blue Jackets – 13.5%
Anaheim Ducks – 11.5%
San Jose Sharks – 9.5 %
Arizona Coyotes – 8.5%

Now there is one other interesting note here. The Montreal Candadiens currently have a 7.5% chance at the number seed, but they also own the Florida Panther’s first-round pick. Now earlier in the season, no one paid much attention to that because the Panthers were expected to be a playoff team, and therefore their pick would not be eligible for the lottery drawing. The Panthers are currently projected to miss the playoffs (a conversation for another day), and their first-round draft pick currently holds a 5% chance of being #1 overall. So the Canadiens actually have a 12.5% chance of winning the #1 overall spot, which is absolutely fascinating to think about.

So to answer the question: Who NEEDS Connor Bedard the most?

Well, the answer isn’t so simple. Technically all the teams in the lottery need a player like Connor Bedard. Columbus would love to pair him with Johnny Hockey. Anaheim already has elite-level player potential in both Nathan Mctavish and Trevor Zegras. Adding Bedard to that mix would make them the most-watched team in the NHL from a highlight reel perspective if nothing else. The Coyotes well…… the Coyotes need a game-changer. That team is on the brink of non-existence, literally. Bedard could be the savior in Arizona and even pave the way for Auston Matthews to head to Arizona once his contract is up in Toronto since he is an Arizona native after all and has mentioned the potential for “going home” to bring them a championship someday. Talk about a lot at stake.

That all being said, the NHL is at its best when the original 6 teams are at least contending for playoff spots. As we look at it right now, the Bruins, Rangers, Maple Leafs, and Red Wings are all either playoff teams today that are legitimately competing for a Cup, or they are up and coming with a very bright future. The 2 teams missing from that list are the Chicago Blackhawks and Montreal Canadiens. Two of the biggest market teams in the league, both with prestigious histories who are desperate to return to relevancy. Chicago is looking to turn the page from the Toews and Kane era to whatever it is that is coming next. Why not Connor Bedard? He would certainly rejuvenate the fan base and would make Chicago a sought-after landing spot for upcoming free agents. Rumors are that the Blackhawks will be shopping Toews and Kane aggressively at the trade deadline. If they were successful in doing that, they could end up with more draft picks to build toward the future, and they would also more than likely increase their 25.5% odds of getting the #1 overall draft spot.

And what about Montreal? The Canadiens are further along in the rebuilding process than the Blackhawks are. You could argue they are already close to being a playoff team. They have amazing young talent with Cole Caulfield, Kirby Dach, last year’s #1 overall pick Juraj Stafkovsky, and Captain Nick Suzuki. Adding Connor Bedard to that mix would make them instantly into a Cup contender for YEARS to come. They still need a #1 goalie, but with a lineup like that, they wouldn’t have any issues recruiting a top-end free agent during the offseason. Having the Canadiens being in that competitive of a position is critically important to the league and to the fan base in Montreal, which is regarded by many as the heart of hockey.

Wherever Connor Bedard goes, it will surely change the course of history for multiple teams. There is no doubt that he is that kind of a prospect. He has the potential to be the next Crosby, McDavid, or Matthews. Teams just can’t pass that opportunity up. Half of the teams in NHL are going to technically have an opportunity at Bedard, but in my opinion, the Blackhawks, the Canadiens, and the NHL as a whole, need him the most.