NFL
By: Ryan Cooley
*All stats/grades via PFF
There are many questions swirling about the Washington Commander’s 2023 season on both sides of the ball. Outside of the wide receivers, no one knows what the offense will look like. The defense is more established but still has some unknowns. I believe two players will have a significant impact on the team’s success this season based on their performance.
Here are the X factors on offense and defense for Washington this year.
Offense: Sam Howell
I know this isn’t the most surprising answer. However, quarterback play is the most crucial factor in the success of an offense. The last time a quarterback managed a starting caliber grade (70+) in Washington was in 2018 with Alex Smith (70.2). This past season, neither Wentz (58.9) nor Heinicke (48.9) managed to even achieve a backup-level passing grade (60+).
Howell is a complete mystery heading into the season. Not many 5th-round quarterbacks with only one start under their belt get the opportunity to be QB1 heading into a season. Though, it is a testament to his development and hard work throughout the 2022 season.
In his lone start last year, Howell managed two total touchdowns, 203 total yards, and an adjusted completion percentage of 70.6. Outside of the interception in the end zone, Howell made minimal mistakes. This is an important note. Howell’s decision making will be critical for this offense in 2023. Heinicke’s poor decision making and recklessness created unnecessary pressure on the defense. His 4.4% turnover-worthy play (TWP) rate was the 4th highest in 2021 and his 6.6% rate in 2022 was the highest in the league.
At UNC, Howell was relatively safe with the football. His 2.2% TWP rate in 2021 was the 18th best in the country. No one is expecting this offense to be a top five unit. So, limiting the number of turnovers will be massive for the team’s overall success in 2023.
Honorable Mention: Logan Thomas
Defense: Chase Young
Young has been a strange story. He didn’t disappoint his rookie year after being drafted #2 overall. In 2020, he generated 42 pressures and managed 36 tackles for losses while forcing 4 fumbles. His 87.1 overall grade was the 5th highest in the league. Most expected Young to make the leap in his 2nd season and cement himself as one of the best edge rushers in the NFL. Instead, he only managed 2 sacks on 297 pass rush snaps before tearing his ACL in week 10.
Young wouldn’t return to the field until week 16 of last season. He was Washington’s highest-graded defensive player in that game at 87.4. No one knows what Young will look like this season. While many have given up on him, I still believe he can be the Commander’s best defensive player.
The defense was a dominant unit in 2022.
Some of Washington’s defensive stats in 2022:
– 1st in first downs allowed (286)
– 1st in passing first downs allowed (151)
– 1st in third down % (31.9%)
– 4th in passing yards/game (191.3)
– 7th in points/game (20.2)
– 3rd in total yards/game (304.6)
— Cooley's Takes (@Cooleystakes) July 24, 2023
If Young can get back to even his rookie form, Washington could contend as the best defense in the league.
Honorable Mention: Emmanuel Forbes
