NFL
By Keith Richards
I’ve come to call this game Bye Weeks 2 and 3 for the Kansas City Chiefs. When you’re on a 16-game losing streak to a single team, there are not many positive things you can say. On Sunday, in Week 8, Denver will try to not lose to the Chiefs for the 17th consecutive game.
Colorado Rapids fans are familiar with the term Snow Clasico. So, since this game will be played in Denver, which is expected to have five to 12” of snow, this will be NFL Snow Clasico. With hundreds of flights canceled, roads freezing, and accidents aplenty, this is great football weather! In Week 8, can the Broncos snap its 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs? Will they be able to delay the pain of fans for another week? Let’s find out!
Week 8 Game Notes
• The losing streak to the Chiefs began on November 15, 2015, a 29-13 loss
• The longest winning streak for Denver in the series is 8 games (1976-1979)
• In the all-time series, the Chiefs lead the Broncos 72-55 (including playoffs)
• Denver won the only postseason contest in 1998 (14-10)
• Since the Broncos last made the playoffs (when the streak started), the Chiefs have won two Super Bowls and seven straight division titles
Week 8 Offensive Keys to Victory
As a starter, it’s not implausible to say the Broncos could defeat the Chiefs in Week 8. Heading into Week 8, the last three games have been decided by a total of 26 points; the last meeting came on October 12th (a 19-8 Chiefs victory). So, it’s not like the Broncos haven’t had opportunities to defeat Kansas City. When looking at the streak as a whole, since the 2020 43-16 beat down, Denver has been within two scores in every game. What’s different in 2023 and Week 8? The Chiefs’ defense.
Heading into Week 8, Kansas City ranks 7th in total defense in the NFL. They allow under 300 yards per game (294.6) and have only conceded 11 touchdowns so far. Comparatively, the Broncos head into Week 8 ranking 21st in total offense. Denver averages 311 yards per game and has scored 16 touchdowns. So, on paper, the Broncos’ offense should be able to compete with the Chiefs’ defense based on averages.
However, we know the game is not played on paper and averages could mean nothing on any given Sunday. To defeat any team, you have to attack their weakness. So, what is the “weakness” of the Chiefs’ defense? The running game. Coming into Week 8, the Kansas City defense has allowed 105.7 rushing yards per game. That’s the chink in the armor that Denver must exploit.
So, the key to victory for the Broncos’ offense in Week 8 is to successfully run the ball. On the plus side, the Broncos have rushed for over 100 yards three times before Week 8. Twice in the other five games, Denver was within 10 yards of reaching the century mark. The downside? The Broncos have not had a single 100-yard rusher all season.
So, in Week 8, it has to be truly a running back by-committee approach for the Broncos. Denver will need Jaleel McLaughlin, Javonte Williams, and Samaje Perine to come with their best effort. With the possibility of nasty weather, a strong rushing attack serves two purposes. First, it keeps the slick football out of the hands of the quarterback. While the slick ball affects running backs too, it’s not as severe as quarterbacks.
Second, and most importantly, it keeps Patrick Mahomes II off the field. It doesn’t matter what the conditions are. You must keep 15 off the field for as long as you can. In addition, when he’s off the field, you have to score. When I say score, I mean touchdowns. Score touchdowns.
A 14-play, six-minute drive that ends in a field goal is barely a half-win. With the expected weather, Denver must keep the Chiefs off the field and put them in a deep ball with their passing attack (hopefully) crippled by Mother Nature. If the Broncos can do that, they have a decent chance of winning.
Week 8 Defensive Keys to Victory
As I typed “defensive keys to victory,” I had a good laugh. The Chiefs’ offense vs. the Broncos’ defense in Week 8 is a hilarious mismatch. The Chief’s offense ranks 2nd in the NFL in total offense (396.7 yards per game and 19 touchdowns). Here’s where it’s laughable. The Denver defense is dead last in total defense (424.7 yards per game and 25 touchdowns).
If you’re not fully grasping the situation this Broncos’ defense is in heading into Week 8, there’s more. The Chiefs’ offense scores (touchdowns) 57.1% of the time in the red zone, which is average in comparison with the rest of the league. What’s not average is the Broncos’ red zone defense. Denver allows a touchdown 55.2% of the time in the red zone. Not good.
The defensive key to victory in Week 8 for the Broncos is to get turnovers. Even then, getting turnovers is not enough. Denver has to get Mahomes and the Chiefs to turn the ball over in their own territory. Turning the ball over in Denver territory still leaves the chance for short field for the Chiefs. Especially if the Broncos cannot get first downs. Keeping their field short for their offense is imperative.
With the Week 8 defensive key being turnovers, there’s bad news and there’s promising news. The bad news is that the Broncos are minus four in turnover ratio heading into Week 8. The defense only has seven takeaways (five interceptions and two fumbles recovered). That ranks 24th in the NFL.
However, as I said, there is promising news. In their last three games against the Chiefs, the Broncos have turned Kansas City over six times. If the Broncos’ offense doesn’t turn the ball over, and they maintain their current three-game average of two TOs per game, Denver has a decent shot of not being blown off the field by the Kansas City offense.
The Week 8 Result
You never know what’s going to happen in these division rivalry games. The last three games between these two teams heading into Week 8 is a prime example. The consensus is that Kansas City would demolish Denver in the past three games, which has not been the case. Can the Broncos both keep the game close and defeat the Chiefs in Week 8?
No. Caesars Sportsbook has set the line at minus 7. The only victory the Broncos will have in Week 8 is a win against the spread. I’m picking Kansas City 23-17. Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid is no stranger to bad weather. He will have a game plan sufficient enough for Kansas City to overcome both the elements and Denver. After Week 8, the Broncos will have a 17-game losing streak to the Chiefs.
Team NBS has you covered in Week 8 with live updates on Twitter, a breakdown of the College Football action, and getting you ready for the NFL games. Team NBS is the place to be on Sundays. Don’t miss out!
