NFL
By Bill Carroll
“The most valuable player is the one who makes the most players valuable.” – Peyton Manning
Waiver Week 16 is here! Congratulations! If you are reading this article, the fact that you are still intensely focused on managing your fantasy football roster. In the nest round of the playoffs you are either facing a very skilled player or a very fortunate player. No matter how the arrived, any opponent is potentially dangerous.
The battlefield is a scene of constant chaos. The winner will be the one who controls that chaos, both his own and the enemies.
In Waiver Week 16, as is so often the case, injuries, have and will continue to, play a pivotal role in the outcome of the fantasy playoffs.
Waiver Week 16: Running Backs
Tykevius ‘Ty’ Chandler become the first Minnesota running back to top 100 yards for the season. In fact he became the first Vikings’ running back to hit the 100-yard mark since Dalvin James Cook rushed for 119 yards in the team’s Week 10 match-up against the Buffalo Bills
Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a career game, 101 total yards, a receiving touchdown and, perhaps most tellingly he played on 62% of the Chief’s offensives snaps. Jerick McKinnon was also very productive with his 34% snap-count. He accounted for one touchdown pass, one touchdown catch, both were excellent flex options in week 15. I am bullish on both if Pacheco misses week 16.
Another very unfortunate injury is Keaton Mitchell, the Ravens will lean heavily upon Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, Melvin Gordon and, the newly signed Jake Funk. Last Week, Edwards rushed 16 times for 58 yards and a touchdown while catching his only target for 11 yards. While Hill has more big play potential, Edwards is more used in the red-zone with 31 red-zone touches and has converted 47.% of his chances into scores.
Waiver Week 16: Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Anthony Chase, has a shoulder injury and per reporting:
“The expectation is that he is sidelined for this week’s game against the Steelers, and it could extend beyond that,” Ian Rapoport tweeted.
This makes any of the the available Bengals’ receivers must adds, Higgins is not likely available, but Tyler Boyd is a priority and as deep league dart throws, Trenton Irwin and even Andrei Iosivas should be on your radar. Iosivas only has six catches and 44 yards in 2023, but he has scored two TDs.
Michael William Thomas Jr., is a possibility to return, however it is more likely that his return will be put off for at least another week. So Rashid Shaheed remains a viable option. In week 15, his 36 receiving yards led all Saints wide receivers, but two of Derek Carr ‘s three touchdown passes went to tight ends, and Keith Kirkwood scored the team’s only touchdown by a wide receiver.
Olave (ankle) was listed as a non-participant on Monday’s practice estimate, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
If both Olave and Thomas are shelved, Shaheed is flex option and Krkwood is a very, very deep league desperation dart throw! Rashee Rice continues to blossom; Rice snagged all nine of his targets for 91 yards and a touchdown. He is a solid WR2 option in Waiver Week 16.
If Keenan Allen is sidelined again in Waiver Week 16, Joshua Palmer is only rostered in 29% of leagues and he was explosive versus the Raiders. Palmer tallied 115 yards and only needed four targets to gather those yards and a 79-yard big play. He garnered a 12.5% target share while playing 72% of the snaps. If Allen is unavailable Palmer is one my top flex options in deep leagues.
Finally, if in waiver week 16, Noah Brown is somehow available, even in 10 or 12 team leagues he is a strong flex play. In deep leagues he is a legitimate WR2. Brown caught eight of 11 targets for 82 yards and a touchdown. He had a 30.5% target share and while the Browns are formidable, I would still start him.
If you need another waiver week 16 flex/WR2-3 option, Dontayvion Jaquain Wicks just had his career best game. He racked up seven targets, six receptions, and 97 yards. Monitor the health of Jayden Reed and Christian Watson. If both are hampered, Wicks is potential deep league diamond. His average yards-per-route run is over two yards. He produces whenever he has targets.
Destiny is no matter of chance. It is a matter of choice. It is not a thing to be waited for, it is a thing to be achieved. William Jennings Bryan
Waiver Week 16: Quarterbacks
For Waiver Week 16, the Atlanta Falcons will start Taylor Heinicke at quarterback Sunday, he is a solid deep league desperation dart throw, if you have a need that is more than a super-flex/second QB, there are more promising options. I am shocked that Baker Reagan Mayfield is still available in almost 50% of leagues. He is getting hit. He just went 22-of-28 passing attempts for 381 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions for 29 fantasy points.
Case Keenum is efficient and smart, he completed 23-of-36 passes for 229 yards and one touchdown with one interception, as the Texans survived the Tennessee Titans. He is worth deep league consideration. Nick Mullens had a productive, if imperfect day, hitting on 26 of 33 for 303 yards, with two interceptions and two touchdowns. His two interceptions were poorly timed and poor decisions. However, he will now have a full set of practices with the starters.
As I have said before, Joe Flacco is still the best deep league dart throw option. Tommy DeVito is a secondary option.
Waiver Week 16: Tight Ends
Last week, Dalton Schultz returned to produce 7.8 points in 1/2 point PPR leagues from his five targets, four catches and 58 yards. Hunter Henry has had a 20.3% target share over the last two games, averaging five catches with 53 receiving yards while scoring three touchdowns But my favorite recent TE additions have been Cade Otton who caught 2-of-2 targets for 44 yards in his last game, but I am expecting a touchdown versus Jacksonville and my favorite deep league dart throws are Tucker Kraft, who caught four of six targets for 57 yards and a touchdown with a 15.3% target share.
Last but not least, Chigoziem Okonkwo, whose role has grown as 2023 continues. He has been targeted at least five times for four straight games, playing at least 48% of the snaps in three straight games. gWith no less than 45 receiving yards in each of those weeks. Okonkwo leads Tennessee in target share over those weeks at 18%.
“It’s not the will to win that matters. It’s the will to prepare to win that matters.” – Paul “Bear” Bryant
Waiver Week 16: Kickers
Waiver Week 16 kickers I am favoring are ones who have proven consistent and have solid opportunities. I have targeted: Michael Badgley, Tyler Bass, Jake Elliott, Jake Moody, [The Two Jakes?] and if they are gone, Nick Folk, Black Grupe and my deep league dart throw is Younghoe Koo, I expect him to bounce back and Heinicke is just efficient enough to provide field goal opportunities.
Waiver Week 16: Defense/Special Teams
Waiver Week 16 is a great week for defenses. The Commanders draw the inept Jets defense, the Broncos face the Moribund Patriots’ offense, outdoors, with snow a strong possibility. The Bills draw the, Easton Stick led Chargers and next week they get New England! The Eagles should be able to “get right” versus the Giants. The Giants are top five in memes, but are not a leader in any other offensive category.
My top D/ST deep league dart throws are the Chiefs facing a resurgent, but limited Las Vegas Raiders offense, the Colts versus the confused and confusing Falcons and Tampa Bay, stay with me, the Jaguars have a great deal of talent, but even against Buffalo, The Colts, Houston and the 49ers they avoided a negative showing.
I think they are in line for two to three sacks, one turnover and allow about 23 points. The Green Bay Packers have a juicy match-up in the hapless Panthers and Houston faces the Browns, all of which are good options in Waiver Week 16.
“Many will start fast, few will finish strong.” – Gary Ryan Blair
