NFL
By: Charlie Gross
The last ten quarters of football have brought us some great plays by Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, but it has also brought us some horrendous decision-making by Allen. Two terrible decisions in the second half against Green Bay were followed up by two more terrible decisions against the New York Jets. These were followed by one bad throw and one bad decision against the Minnesota Vikings. The Jets boast a top 5 defense and the Vikings are having a great year but a team that’s the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl and has the betting favorite playing Quarterback shouldn’t lose to these teams the way the Bills have.
KEYS TO THE GAME
TURNOVERS
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills currently lead the NFL in drives that end with a turnover. 19% of the Buffalo Bills offensive drives end in a turnover and yet they still find themselves 1st in yards per game and second in points per game. While the bad interceptions by Josh Allen are embarrassing, he’s not alone when it comes to turnovers. Devin Singletary, James Cook, and former Bills running back have all had fumbles lost in key moments. Take it one step further to dropped passes and dropped touchdowns and you won’t find an innocent person in any of the skill positions. In the past 3 games, Dawson Knox has dropped two touchdowns, Gabriel Davis dropped that 70 bomb from Allen against the Jets, and Stefon Diggs dropped a pass at the end of the Vikings game that would have put the Bills comfortably in field goal range at least.
Unfortunately dropped passes and touchdowns are nothing new for this iteration of the Buffalo Bills. In the game against the New England Patriots last year where the wind was really crazy, the Bills skill position player managed to drop ten passes that were either in the red zone or the end zone itself. Going further back to 2020, Gabriel Davis managed to drop 7 passes in the end zone that year, his rookie season.
Josh Allen and his teammates have to stop leaving points on the field like that.
RUN THE BALL
As my colleagues at Nuts and Bolts Sports can attest to, I’m not a big “run the ball a lot guy”. However, the Bills seem to do a fairly decent job of it in the first half, and then in the second half, they pretend that running the ball (with running backs) has suddenly become against the rules. I’m not advocating for fewer Josh Allen runs, I’m advocating for a couple more runs from Devin Singletary or James Cook. Josh Allen is the best offensive weapon the Bills have but it’s nice to give the opponent something else to think about and plan for more consistently.
BETTER TACKLING
Under Sean McDermott the Buffalo Bills have been one of the poorest tackling defenses in the league. While they have been very successful on defense the last three years, the missed tackle rate is a bit alarming. For reference, the league average Per PFF is 12.8%. Here’s a quick list of missed tackle rates for the Buffalo Bills defense. A.J. Epenesa 66.7%, Tim Settle 30%, Jordan Phillips 28.6%, Von Miller 23.1%, Dane Jackson 19%, Matt Milano 12.7%, and Tremaine Edmunds 7.4%. If the phrase “Less than ideal” pops into your head after seeing these stats, you’re not alone. The Cleveland Browns play “big boy football” in the run game and have the best running back in the league, Nick Chubb, on their roster. I would imagine that tackling better would certainly help Josh Allen and the offense as well.
PREDICTION
Everyone knows by now that Orchard Park, NY home of Highmark stadium is set to get anywhere from 3 feet to six feet of snow in the next two days. If by some miracle the weather is back to normal on Sunday and the field is clear, I think Josh Allen and the Bills will right the ship and destroy the Browns. However, if it’s really windy and there’s a foot of snow on the field, that weather becomes the ultimate equalizer, anything can happen at that point. A loss to the Browns would not be crazy under those conditions.
