NFL
By Bill Carroll
There are several favorites for NFL Rookie of the Year, Bijan Robinson, is atop most lists, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, and Jahmyr Gibbs are often bandied about with the rookie QBs: Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. are often mentioned and it is clear why they are the front-runners. It is fairly common for the known quantity to prevail.
Recent winners have been such betting favorites as New York Giants’ running back Saquon Barkley, in 2019, and Quarterback Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals in 2020. On the other hand, Los Angeles Chargers Quarterback, Justin Herbert was a bit of a surprise to some, in 2021 Ja’Marr Chase the Cincinnati Bengals Wide receiver 2022 was a popular prediction, as was wide receiver, Garrett Wilson, another player that was favored by some smart analysts.
The award has a nearly 58-year history, of being given as the Sporting News Rookie of the Year, a 56-year history, of being given as the Associated Press NFL Rookie of the Year Award, 21 year history, of voting for the Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Year, as well as, in the past, the Newspaper Enterprise Association (NEA) from (1964–1996) and the United Press International (UPI) from (1964–1996) also bestowed a Rookie of the Year Award. The Pro Football Writers of America also known as PFWA’s Rookie of the Year award was changed to an Offensive & Defensive Rookie of the Year format, that was presented in conjunction with Pro Football Weekly, from 1992-2012.
The Rookie of the Year award’s voting is held prior to the playoffs, immediately after the regular season. with the Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Year Award and other AP awards, after 2011, the winners of the AP Rookie of the Year awards have been revealed at the NFL Honors presentation the night before the Super Bowl. The AP’s Rookie of the Year Award is officially considered to be the NFL’s ‘true’ Rookie of the Year.
In all of those awards’ histories, there have been some unexpected names selected. Though he did not win, despite a furious late charge, one of the most notable surprise rookies was just last season. Brock Richard Purdy was the, lightly regarded, Mr. Irrelevant, the 262nd overall and final selection of the 2023 NFL Draft. Despite being the Gatorade Player of the Year in Arizona high school football, he was a mid-low 3-star recruit as he headed to Iowa State.
When Brock Purdy visited Alabama, Nick Saban said this to him from The Athletic:
“You’re below average in height. Your arm strength is whatever. Your accuracy is average”
With all of the questions about his talent, when he was given a chance, he excelled. His nine-game starting run included a Wild Card game playoff game victory and starting, but being injured during, the 2022-23 NFC NFC Championship Game. His statistics: 1,374 yards passing, with a 67.1 completion percentage, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He has an excellent chance to become a long-term starter.
Paul Richard Flatley, was drafted in the 1963 NFL draft. He was selected in the fourth round by the Minnesota Vikings. In his rookie season, he had fifty-one passes for 867 yards and four touchdowns. He was named National Football League Offensive Rookie of the Year in 1963.
Flatley played seven seasons with the NFL, four with the Minnesota Vikings and three with the Atlanta Falcons. He did have two other 50-catch seasons and topped 800 yards in two other seasons. He tallied more than three hundred receptions and twenty-four touchdowns during those years. He also had 495 yards in rushing and a sixteen-yard average per game.
Paul Richard Flatley was invited to play in the 1966 Pro Bowl. There were seven future Pro Football Hall of Fame members in that draft, including Bobby Bell and John Mackey, but Paul Richard Flatley was voted that year’s top rookie.
There have been other surprise winners. When Rayne Dakota “Dak” Prescott won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2016, he was a player that was projected to be a developmental backup, Tony Romo was expected to start for between two and four more seasons. Unexpectedly, a career-changing back injury to Antonio Ramiro “Tony” Romo, a compression fracture to the L1 vertebra in Romo’s back, during the Cowboys’ third preseason game against the Seattle Seahawks, resulted in Romo missing 10 games, it was soon clear that Prescott was, not only the future, but also the present.
In 1974 Donald Ray Woods, a mobile college QB at the time, was selected in 6th Round with the 134th pick of the 1974 NFL Draft by the Green Bay Packers. Woods had been a quarterback for the University of New Mexico, where he had transferred, after New New Mexico-Highlands had dropped football. Green Bay released Woods and he was added to the roster by the Chargers.
Once there, he set the rookie record for rushing yards, despite not playing in the first 2 games of the season. He was electric as a rookie, he set a then-NFL-rookie-rushing-record of 1,162 yards in only 12 games, including a then-rookie-record, seven 100-yard rushing performances (weeks 3,4,5,7,10,12 In 1975, with a total of 1,511 yards from scrimmage, second in franchise history, only to what LaDainian Tomlinson did in 2001.
In 1975, a knee injury limited Woods to five games. Additionally, Rickey Young joined the Chargers backfield in 1975. Young produced immediately with 138 rushes for 577 yards, he had five scores as a runner, with 21 catches for 166 yards and a TD, receiving. In 1977, Lydell Mitchell, the former Colt, joined the rotation, and Woods’ was soon relegated to a tertiary role. He would never again approach the numbers of his rookie season.
Last year Aidan Hutchinson was as advertised and won the Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Year. While Jets’ Cornerback Ahmad “Sauce Gardner” of the New York Jets, won the Associated Press NFL Rookie of the Year Award and PFWA Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Here are some of the rookies that I will be watching, that I see as Dark-horse Contenders For 2023 NFL Rookie of the Year. Since 2000, the Defensive Rookie of the Year award has been dominated by linebackers, who have won it 13 times, while defensive ends have won it three times (since 2000). On defense:
Buccaneers DT Calijah Kancey, Commanders CB Emmanuel Forbes, and Lions LB Jack Campbell, are all worthy of mention, but I want to focus on two other players.
When the New England Patriots traded back three spots and still drafted Christian Gonzalez, a player that was my number one corner prospect and a top 10 player in my rankings, I realized that he had a chance to have a great rookie year. Not only does he have prototypical size, length, and testing numbers, the things that truly stood out were his “oiled silk” smoothness and balance, he is poised and comfortable in both man and zone coverage and is advanced when it comes to footwork and mirroring receivers.
The main knock was his inconsistent aggressiveness and not pulling the trigger, he played a little too safe at times. I think the Patriots’ cornerbacks’ coach Mike Pellegrino and head coach/de facto defensive coordinator, Bill Belichick, will set him free. The Patriots helped enable Asante Travis Samuel Sr. to become a four-time pro bowl selection and an All-Pro.I think Gonzalez is their most talented corner since Stephon Stiles Gilmore, or Samuel.
The scheme is not easy to learn, however New England’s under front, at times, puts four pass-rushing threats on one side of the line and creates natural overloads, without blitzing. Also, they can win by using special pass-rush packages that puts three pass-rushers on the field, at once. By maximizing pressure, while still dropping seven into coverage, there will be opportunities for interceptions. I could see him topping all rookies in that category.
The Atlanta Falcons had 21 sacks in 2022, that is a fantastic number, for a player. But for a team, that is quite anemic! The Philadelphia Eagles had the most sacks by a team in 2022, with 70 sacks. There are chances for the Falcons to more than double that total in 2023.
They have added, the explosive Alvin “Bud” Dupree Jr. and the mammoth, six-time pro bowler, and former All-Pro, Calais Mark Campbell, joining the very underrated Grady Jarrett, but Dupree was slowed by injury in 2022, with four sacks in 11 games. Campbell is a physical marvel, but he turns 37 prior to the first, regular-season game.
The secondary adds Jeff Okudah to the excellent AJ Terrell, fellow CB Darren Hall with safeties Richie Grant and Jaylinn Hawkins. A new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen joins the team via their division rivals, the New Orleans Saints. If Adetokunbo Ogundeji, Arnold Ebiketie, Lorenzo Carter, and DeAngelo Malone, who collectively have 9 1/2 career sacks, don’t dramatically improve, that opens the door for a rookie third-round selection, pick number 75, Zach Harrison, to get vital pass rush snaps. At 6’ 5 1/2’’ 274 with 36 1/4’’ arms, he has an ideal
frame and was a sprinter in high school with a best 100 meters of 10.7. I think Jason Pierre-Paul is his ceiling.
On offense, WR Quentin Johnston, drafted with the 21st overall selection, in round one, of the LA Chargers whose wide receivers coach, Chris Beatty is highly respected. At Pitt, he recruited and developed a Biletnikoff Award-winner, Jordan Addison. For the LA Chargers he helped Mike Williams to his best season, career highs in catches,
(76) and receiving yards (1,146) with nine touchdowns. Chris Beatty on Johnston:
“He doesn’t know what he doesn’t know, so you tell him something, and it’s almost like, ‘Oh, you can do that?’” Beatty said of Johnston. “You’re looking at it like, man, this guy, the sky’s the limit.”
At 6’2 3/4″ 208 and with a 40 1/2″ vertical jump and 4.49 speed, he has all of the physical tools to be a deep threat and jump-ball, red-zone target, while he improves his route mastery and works on catching the ball outside of his frame. Braylon Edwards is my comparison. He may be the starting ‘Z receiver’ on day one.
Another offensive rookie with real breakout potential is running back Tyjae Spears taken in he third round, 81st overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, by The Tennessee Titans. Spears may be the beneficiary of the team trying to lighten the load on Derrick Henry. The 247 pound bruiser is now 29 and entering his eighth NFL season, it’s reasonable to expect some reduction in workload.
The 5′ 91/2″ 201 runner from Tulane showed at his pro day that he has athletic bona fides: 4.47 40, 39” vertical, 10’05” broad jump, with 18 repetitions at 225, on the bench. If Spears is able to stay healthy and is the established second back he has a chance to excel.
No matter who wins the 2023 NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year, there will be discussions of those who ‘could have’, ‘should have’ or ‘would have.’ I would urge you to consider some of those players who are not the ‘clubhouse leaders.’
