NFL
By Bill Carroll
The Colts and Falcons are meeting as each has a reached a turning point, a fork in the road, Atlanta is smarting from an eye-opening loss to Panthers nine to seven, while the Colts were able to split with fellow wildcard contenders the Bengals and Steelers, in back to back games.
Atlanta is four and three at home, and the Colts are four and two on the road. The Falcons are four and three as a favorite, three-and three as a home favorite, and the Colts are three and six as an underdog, two and two as road underdog.
These teams share quite a few things in common, obviously they are both in playoff contention, they are starting backups at quarterback, both of whom have been steady, both have had injuries that interfered with the development of young stars. miss multiple weeks and Jonathon Taylor has returned.
“I love the way that Coach [Gus] Bradley, just in the different places that we’ve had a chance to play against him, you love the way that he gets his guys to play at a fast, violent level, …” Falcons offensive coordinator Dave Ragone said. “They do a great job of playing with vision in the backend. That’s why the turnovers are occurring. They do a great job of attacking the football in the ball-carrier’s hands.”
Via Falcons.com
Perhaps the greatest point of distinction between the two teams is the recent performances of their rushing attacks and defenses versus the running game. The Falcons would seem to have the clear edge, they have rushed for 126.4 yards per game and allowed only 3.91 yards per carry, in 20230. In contrast the Indianapolis Colts have allowed opponents 4.1 rushing yards per opponent rush attempt this season.
The Colts: By The Numbers
The Colts on offense score an average of 24.6 points per game and and allow 24.5 points per game, the Falcons are a bit less nearly perfectly balanced. On offense the Atlanta Falcons score 18.4 points per game and are allowing 19.9 points per game. This game will most likely be decided at the line of scrimmage.
Atlanta has rushed for 1,770 yards, but have slumped on the ground, as of late, with only 79.3 and a mere 52 in their last game. The Colts will, very likely, try to win with the blend of running plays, intermediate passes to their talented receiving group, with a few deep shots to Alec Piece and hitting one their four effective tight ends in the deep red-zone.
The Colts average 114.7 yards rushing per game, which is 13th in the NFL. The will need more in this game. They rush the ball on 42.59% of their offense plays, but I think they will need to be over 50% running attempts and control the clock. But the biggest number will be turnovers. The Colts average turning the ball over 1.4 times per game while forcing 1.7 turnovers.
Rather infamously, the Falcons have spent picks very early in the first round on Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robison and if you want to be overwhelmed with negativity, search for those two names in any combination with Arthur Smith’s name. For the Falcons to win and be a playoffs team they need to get efficient quarterback play from, well, somebody and dominant performances from Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robison.
The Colts: Game Plan Points of Emphasis
The Colts pass rush is very good The fact that the team target leader, at 143, Michael Pittman Jr. is out of this game means that Josh Downs 84 targets, Alec Pierce 53 targets and with Isaiah McKenzie suspended, perhaps D.J. Montgomery continue to produce.
The first meeting between the two teams was in 1966, the Atlanta Falcons’ maiden season. In short order, the Colts strung together 10 straight wins. Finally, in the Falcons finally broke through lead by a red-hot Chris Chandler who was superior to a, then rookie, rookie Peyton Manning.
Clearly Arthur Smith does not care about anyone’s fantasy team, but if he cares about the real Falcons of he NFL, he will need to let his stars and studs standout. Whether Taylor Heinicke or Desmond Ridder is under center, they will need more help than they have received from the play-calling and their teammates.
The Colts: This Is The Way
As the season heads towards it’s conclusion. the Colts are a team that is maturing as we watch and if they continue to build, when Anthony Richardson returns they become a threat to take the AFC South. If theey are able to improve the offensive line in the draft or free agency, add a top-tier tight end and one more elite level cover corner, this is a team to watch on 2024.
