NFL
Russell Westbrook officially joined the Los Angeles Lakers this week, marking the homecoming for one of the NBA’s most electric players in the league. It’s a gamble for LeBron James and Co. however, as Westbrook comes with his own set of rules and flaws. A complex player, Russ has multiple paths that could play out during his time with the Lakers, and Los Angeles needs the best version of him in order to win another title.
By: Jordan Vitkauskas – @jordan_v24
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Arguably one of the most polarizing players in the NBA, Russell Westbrook is once again in the major spotlight after being traded to the Los Angeles Lakers a week ago. The package from Los Angeles sent Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell, Kyle Kuzma, a 2021 first-round pick (ended up being Isaiah Jackson), and a 2022 second-round pick to the Wizards (some of which was re-routed in the 5-team deal). The return was a few second-round picks and of course, Westbrook, the 9x All-NBA guard who’s having a homecoming over 13 years after being drafted fourth overall out of UCLA.
He’s set to join LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony and a bevy of other (aging) role players in pursuit of the first NBA championship of his career. But just how well will the known “gunner” fit in with this revamped Lakers’ squad as they chase banner no. 18 will be the biggest question throughout the 2021-22 season.
There’s little doubt that Westbrook will be selected on the first ballot for the Hall of Fame when he is eligible five years after his retirement (the best guess is he will be eligible sometime between 2028-2031). His resume is loaded – a 9x All-Star, 9x All-NBA selection (2x First Team), 2x All-Star MVP, 2x scoring champ, 3x assists leader and of course, the 2016-17 Most Valuable Player. Not to mention he also broke Oscar Robertson’s record for career triple-doubles last season, solidifying himself among the 10-best point guards of all time (as of this writing I would have him somewhere between 7-9). In short, he’s one of the most athletic and high-flying players this league has ever seen, but his resume lacks that elusive championship.
Westbrook has one Finals appearance in 2012 against the vaunted Miami Heat led by LeBron James. He was good-but-not-great in that Finals (27/6/6 on 43% FG in a 4-1 series loss), but was also just 23 years of age, which is younger than Suns’ guard Devin Booker, who made his first appearance in the “Big One” this past July. However, the now 32-year-old has not been back since, coming close in 2014 and 2016 with losses to the Spurs and Warriors in the conference finals.
Now, Russ is on his fourth team in four seasons (unprecedented for someone still near their prime) and his fit on the Lakers is… tough to say the least. His brash style of play, questionable and inconsistent shot selection/making, and gambling defense leaves something to be desired around a team that has two ball-dominant guys in James/Davis. Can Westbrook adjust his game after all of these years to fit in more seamlessly? Or will he be too much of a clog that ends up doing more harm than good come playoff time? Let’s run through the three possible scenarios for his time in Purple and Gold…
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Scenario 1: Westbrook is his usual self and the Lakers compete for a title
This is the most likely scenario, so we’ll begin with Westbrook going about his business just like he has for the past decade and the Lakers competing for a top-4 seed in a tough Western Conference. He averages around 17-20 points a night, to go along with eight rebounds and eight assists while his shooting splits remain fairly similar around the 43/30/73 mark. It’ll be hard for Westbrook to replicate the triple-double line from the past few seasons as James/Davis are fillers for those categories, as well as handle the main scoring load. But Russ is able to run the offense in spurts while the Lakers’ dynamic duo rests or *gulps* misses time with injuries.
The former Bruin can carry Los Angeles to victories by himself against lesser teams and come playoff time, begins the delicate balancing act of him, James, and Davis leading the group in pursuit of a title. The Lakers push through the first two rounds, and could win the title, but could also fall in the Conference Finals/Finals to the Clippers, Warriors, Nets or Bucks due to the lane being clogged. Westbrook and Davis don’t stretch the floor well enough and James isn’t quite athletic enough to dominate like the days of old as Los Angeles sees its’ season end in disappointment.
Chances of this scenario happening: 55%
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Scenario 2: Westbrook tries too hard to fit in, and ends up doing more harm than good
This is by far the least fun scenario for Lakers’ fans, but nonetheless, it has to be explored. In this hypothetical, Westbrook really struggles to adjust to being the third option on a team, something he hasn’t done since his rookie year when he was behind Kevin Durant and Jeff Green in shot attempts. He does more harm than good, forcing ill-advised jumpers, tough passes, and congested drives in the lane as Los Angeles struggles out of the gate much like the 2012-13 “super team did). With Davis’s health constantly changing and James losing another step athletically, Russ tries to absorb some of the responsibilities, but reverts to the old Russ puts the Lakers out of balance.
Heading into the last few days of the trade deadline, Los Angeles is just barely above the Play-In tournament in the standings and rumors circulate that general manager Rob Pelinka is looking to trade the point guard for better shooting and defense. Team chemistry is the worst it has been since the 2019 season and some moves were remade at the deadline to try and shake things up. With or without Westbrook, the Lakers limp into the playoffs much like last season and fall in the first round. The roster is subsequently blown up in the offseason (sans LeBron and Davis), and Pelinka is left trying to pick up the pieces and maximize the precious years he has left with James.
Chances of this scenario happening: 30%
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Scenario 3: Westbrook finally figures it all out and hones his efficiency to career-best levels as the Lakers win their 18th NBA Championship
Ah yes, we’ve arrived at my favorite scenario – the one that does not seem super likely but I think can still happen, and would be awesome to witness. In this setup, Westbrook is willing to do whatever it takes to help Los Angeles win a title. He spends the rest of the summer working with James and Davis on his mid-range/three-point shooting, focusing just on taking catch-and-shoot looks when he is truly open (reportedly he has been working on this specifically over the past two weeks).
Westbrook averages around 16-18 points a game but does so with the best efficiency of his career, converting around 47% from the field and 35% from 3 (doesn’t sound like much but keep in mind Dennis Schroder’s splits were 44/34/85 last season). When he’s not taking open looks, Russ is picking his spots to attack the rim and either finish or dish to an open big man. He averages around 6-8 assists a night, but most importantly, he averages a close to career-low in turnovers (anything under 4.0 per game qualifies as a win here). Lastly, Westbrook commits to playing smart team defense and helps start devastating fastbreaks, which the Lakers lead the league in once again.
Come playoff time, Russ keeps that efficiency and plays within himself, exploiting matchups in each round before submitting what is essentially a super-charged 2020 Rajon Rondo performance (Rondo was LAL’s third-best player in two of the Finals wins against Miami, and shot 40% from three-point range in the playoffs overall). With his help, the Lakers recapture NBA glory and win their second title in three seasons. Westbrook shakes the label of a guy that could never win the big one and climbs several spots in the all-time rankings. This is by far the outcome all Lakers’ fans want to see, but also the one that will require the most work and sacrifice. Time will tell if the guy they call “Brodie” can show he is as serious about winning as he says.
Chances of this scenario happening: 15%
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– All stats/info courtesy Basketball-Reference.com or ESPN.com
– Follow Jordan on Twitter @jordan_V24
