NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The Buffalo Bills have been rocky this season, but so has the entire AFC. Which team from the AFC conference will head to the Super Bowl will be determined by who gets hot at the end of the season and sustains it throughout the playoffs. The top four odds to win the Super Bowl are all NFC teams, followed by four AFC teams.
Joe Burrow is back early from injury, and this is a pivotal matchup for both teams. Somehow, the AFC North has turned into a dumpster fire, and the Bengals could win the division if they win out and other divisional teams lose. Lamar Jackson is not himself with injuries, and hobbled Aaron Rodgers and the aging Steelers defense are plummeting.
The Buffalo Bills are sitting in 7th in the AFC playoff race, with the Texans biting at their ankles right behind them to get into the playoff picture. Let’s take a look at what Buffalo needs to do against the Bengals to keep their playoff spot, and hopefully move up for a cushion of relaxation:
Joe Brady needs to be less predictable.
Joe Brady is under heavy scrutiny because the Buffalo Bills’ offense is becoming so predictable that fans on the couch are calling the plays. An offense can be predictable in nature because you can overpower an opponent if you are good at what you do. The issue is that Joe Brady is calling the same play too many times in a row.
Against the Steelers, Buffalo ran the duo-run an unreasonable amount of times, but it clearly worked because Pittsburgh could not stop it at all. When Pittsburgh was able to stop it, it was typically on the third straight duo run. Buffalo would run on 1st down and 2nd down and acquire another 1st down. Then Joe Brady would call another duo run on 1st down, leading to a tackle for loss and a 2nd and 12, an obvious passing situation. All Joe Brady needs to do is mix up the play calling when it is most obvious.
Don’t change the game plan, adjust it a little.
The Buffalo Bills ran the ball 51 times against Pittsburgh and gained the 2nd-most yards in Steelers history on their turf. Both teams played closer to the line of scrimmage, as expected, and it worked. Joe Brady should keep the Pittsburgh Steelers’ idea and combine it with the Carolina Panthers’ game plan.
The Bengals’ defense is below average, and their flaws are Buffalo’s strengths. Their run defense is at the bottom of the league, and their linebackers are liabilities in coverage. Let’s take a look at some of the recent running backs the Bengals have faced and their success:
Derrick Henry – 6 Yards per Carry (60 Yards Total)
Jaylen Warren – 6.2 YPC (62 Yards)
Kyle Monangai – 6.8 YPC (176 Yards)
Breece Hall – 7.4 YPC (133 Yards)
The success of these running backs came from all the gaps created by their offensive line, and Buffalo will be able to pick and choose which runs work and rotate them to make the Bengals defense guess. James Cook is a far better runner this year than the four mentioned above. Ray Davis had a great game against Pittsburgh as well, and Buffalo needs to start utilizing him more.
Now, against the Steelers, Josh Allen’s average depth of target is 1.7 yards. That is astronomically low for a Football game, but it did work in this one case. Like the Panthers, the Bengals linebackers are bad in coverage. Barratt Carter is a full-on liability, and Demetrius Knight is a rookie still trying to figure out NFL coverage and speed.
This works perfectly for Buffalo and their intermediate passing. Dalton Kincaid should be suiting up for this game, and the hope is that Josh Palmer will be back as well. If Josh Palmer is not ready to go, Brandin Cooks will have more time in Buffalo under his belt and can fill that role.
Joe Brady will need to ditch the screens this game (no way he does it entirely) and trade them for under-center play-action passing to get the ball into the intermediate, and even take a shot deep! Geno Stone, Dax Hill, and Jordan Battle are below-average defensive backs, and Josh Allen could have a day with high passing yards.
Limit Joe Burrow’s Possessions.
The Buffalo Bills’ defense is average at best, and the Bengals’ offense can run on all cylinders. Tee Higgins is in concussion protocol, but the connection between Burrow and Chase is always a lethal one. Joe Burrow uses his running backs in the passing game as well, which leads to explosive plays.
Against the Steelers, Buffalo flipped their defense on their head and played sound defense in the box. They only missed four tackles the whole game, and limited Jaylen Warren to only 35 rushing yards. Buffalo will need to limit explosive plays and play 2-high safety to keep everything in front of them. Tre White had a good game against the Steelers, and his boundary play, matched with his ability to defend the run, will be critical in this game.
Combine the Buffalo defense with their ability to run the ball, and time of possession should favor Buffalo’s side, and it is a big key to victory.
Compress the pocket
Joe Burrow is not much of a mobile quarterback, and he is less mobile after a significant toe injury. What Joe Burrow likes to do is step into the pocket and deliver a ball or go through the pocket to scramble for a couple of yards.
The interior defensive line has been a rotating mess with injuries piling up, but this could very well be a get-right game for the defensive line. Deone Walker, DaQuan Jones, TJ Sanders, and Jordan Phillips can take over the Bengals’ offensive line and create pressure on the interior to disrupt Joe Burrow’s lanes.
If Joe Burrow cannot step into his pocket to deliver a ball, AJ Epenesa and Greg Rousseau do a great job of managing the sides of the pocket and create clean-up sacks when Joe Burrow panics. Joey Bosa will more than likely not play this week, so AJ Epenesa will need to bring his top-tier game this Sunday.
The Buffalo Bills face off against the Cincinnati Bengals this Sunday at 1:00 EST/12:00 CST in Orchard Park, NY. Vegas favors Buffalo by 5.5 points and an over/under of 51.5. Buffalo is much better at home, and Buffalo can get it done this Sunday. As always, Go Bills!
