NFL
By: Greg Rector
No matter which NFL team you cheer for there’s a disconnect for so many fans when it comes to the moves made during the off-season. Just like any fan, I look at the next season and the prospects for success, especially in my case for the Dallas Cowboys. I get it and understand that it’s natural for all of us to focus on what is in the immediate future. NFL teams, however, have a much longer game plan and that’s what fans so often don’t consider. Things are never as cut and dried as many of us would like.
Trades
All kinds of factors go into making a trade. We don’t often see a player-for-player trade. Most often if a player is dealt there are draft picks involved. teams must decide if using that draft capital is worth the potential contribution the player being acquired can make. Then factor in the contract for that player most notably when the new player is getting an extension. That extension may necessitate further moves to remain under the salary cap. It’s very complex and NFL teams then have to plan out the salary ramifications for the length of that contract. Certainly, in many cases, a trade may indeed be for that player teams feel can put them in contention to play next February, but most often the new player is going to be around for more than one season.
Free Agency
As the negotiating window opens today there’s a similar impact involved in signing a free agent. This applies more to the players who are considered prime free agents. For the guys who get signed to the cheaper one-year deals generally, the hope is they simply contribute. Signing a player for three or four seasons and teams once again have to look long-term not just at the contribution factor but that nasty old salary ap has to be taken into account. I get that the cap rises and generally teams can massage the numbers, but it’s something that has to be taken into account. Some teams avoid signing bigger names in free agency because they hate giving up compensatory picks to anyone. See the Dallas Cowboys as the easiest example of that. They love getting the comp picks but despise giving them to anyone. The NFL loves today and Wednesday (signing day) because it gives fans hope for 2023. The teams meanwhile also are looking at 2024 2025 and so on already.
New Regimes
When teams change general managers and coaches there’s generally even more movement. The new regimes want to have “their guys” and really have no loyalty to current players. You’ll see Houston sign the guy’s new head coach DeMeco Ryans is familiar with from his time in San Francisco. This is for a couple of reasons. One is they know his system and can help explain a new scheme or concept to others. Secondly, they are going to contribute. This also works with players. Zadarius Smith wanting out of Minnesota is likely because new defensive coordinator Brian Flores made it clear he wants a hybrid defense between a 4-3 and 3-4 look. Smith is not a good fit in a 3-4 scheme so he wants to go where the system will suit him better. A lot of fans simply don’t pay attention to factors such as scheme fits.
Another team with a newer regime is the Las Vegas Raiders. We just saw them move on from Derek Carr. Are they going to sign a veteran quarterback? Will they run with Jason Stidham and draft someone? If they plan on drafting a quarterback like Will Levis or Anthony Richardson the two QBs with the “high ceilings” they may only sign a veteran on a one-year deal to be a bridge so they don’t have to necessarily throw the draft pick to the lions immediately. If they are looking at a quarterback even later on in the draft then you might see them signing a veteran option for a longer time. Again there are just so many options. Just remember as a fan your “want” for the immediate doesn’t jive with the reality often that NFL teams operate in. They are again looking not just at 2023 but seasons beyond. As I finish that thought, Stidham signed with Denver and Las Vegas has just signed Jimmy Garropolo to a three-year 67.5 million dollar deal with 34 million being guaranteed.
The Draft
Here’s the one that is really going to heat up after the free-agent frenzy this week. Every fanbase is planning on their team’s first-round pick especially to be an All-Pro for seasons and eventually wear a gold jacket. It simply is an unrealistic expectation. NFL teams would love 8 to 10 seasons of high-level play from their first-round picks. Let’s remember for every Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson there were 30 other picks that didn’t win the Rookie of the Year. Then the rest of the rounds are dedicated to finding players you hope will contribute for the length of their rookie deal (4 years) and possibly longer. That’s the key to a draft class. You can’t judge a draft class until it reached that 4-year mark fairly. Some teams already may be locked into players at a certain position due to either a trade or losing players to free agency. It all interconnects folks.
Bottom Line
Just keep in mind that every decision made by the team you cheer for has more than just the 2023 season in mind. Before you overreact to a decision look at what it means not just in 2023 but in the seasons beyond as well. That’s how your NFL team’s front office operates. Absolutely they are trying to be as good as possible in 2023, but they are trying to build beyond and in this era, it’s a necessary exercise that fans need to pay attention to as well.
As always you can find me on Twitter @GregsCowboys
