NFL
By: Jesse Rosales
There are a few things that seem very “fall-ish”. Pumpkins of course. The changing color of the leaves. The crisp morning air….. warm cider perhaps. Or….. THE DROP OF THE PUCK. Let’s go, baby! It is that time for the boys to lace them up, hit the ice, and let the fun begin. The beginning of any season is filled with excitement for the fan base, but in hockey, it’s just, well different. If you’re a hockey fan, you know exactly what I’m talking about. With the NHL week 1 kicking off tonight at 7:30 pm EST, let’s break down some of the best matchups on the slate, and also peak at some early betting lines that may provide some value.
Top 5 Most Intriguing Games of the Week:
In a rematch of the Eastern Conference Finals, we get 2 teams that are fully capable of both getting back there this season. The Lightning may have lost a core asset in Ondrej Palat, but maintained many other core pieces including forward Nick Paul. That all being said at the end of the day, they have Andrei Vasilevskiy in net. The 2019 Vezina Trophy winner is still rated as the #1 goalie in my rankings and will be until someone takes that title from him the old fashion way. Oddly enough, that someone might just be the goaltender on the other side of the side in Igor Shesterkin, who is the second highest-rated goalie in my rankings and last year’s Vezina Trophy winner. As the first game of the season, could you ask for a better battle between the pipes? I think not.
4. 10/12 Blue Jackets @ Hurricanes 
I’m not gonna lie, I really want to see if Johnny Hockey made the right decision. After shocking the hockey world by signing a massive 7-year deal with the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets, Gaudreau will have his opportunity to show if he can solely carry a team to greatness. On the other side, the Hurricanes are a proven powerhouse in the East and have one of my favorite players in the league, Sebastian Aho. The Canes will be a true test for the Blue Jackets and may tell us a lot about how the near future is going to go for the surprise winners of summer free agency.
If only Gary Bettman could manually change the schedule to make this the season opener for the league. This has everything you want in a game. The storyline with Nazem Kadri leaving the Avs with the now infamous “I don’t give discounts” team breakup text message. The #1 and #3 teams in the final Western Conference standings. The Flames with a completely new core set of offensive weapons, while the Avs are returning the majority of their key players, aside from new goaltender Alexandar Georgiev, who was acquired from the Rangers after playing backup to….. yep, Shesterkin. See, you are paying attention.
As an Avalanche fan, I’m not really allowed to say anything nice about the Red Wings. Period. So please excuse me while I remove my Avalanche fan hat for a few sentences. These two teams have two of the most exciting young rosters in the League. On the Red Wings side of things, you have GM and Red Wing Hall of Famer Steve Yzerman adding key pieces such as D Ben Chiarot, C Andrew Copp, G Ville Husso, F Dominik Kubalik, F David Perron, D Olli Maatta during the offseason. Those players on their own would make any core on any team a formidable one, but pairing them with the likes of Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi, now you are cooking with some heat. The Devils have a similar story in lots of young all-star level talent like Jack Hughes with Hall of Fame level talent like previously mentioned Ondrej Palat. They added a solid goaltender in Vitek Vanecek. The future looks bright for both of these teams and this game is week 1 and should be a fun one to watch for sure! Ok, now to put back on my Avs hat.
It’s another playoff rematch as we revisit the Battle for Alberta. The Oilers won the series 4 games to 1 during the playoffs but this Flames team looks far from the same team that played in those games. You know Nazem Kardi wants to come out and make a statement early this season as does the Flames’ other newly acquired weapon in Jonathan Huberdeau. Meanwhile, Conner Mcdavid still ranks as the number overall player in my rankings (followed by a pair of Avalanche players I might add) and will most likely be for the foreseeable future. The Oilers also addressed the number #1 hole they had in the offseason which was their goaltender. With Mike Smith likely to retire, the Oilers made a great pickup during the offseason by signing Jack Campbell. Campbell will be an upgrade over the veteran Mike Smith, who played admirably in the postseason, but Campbell could be the missing piece in the Oilers making a legit run at Lord Stanely’s Cup. In what could be a potential late-round playoff preview, this game has everything you want and more to close out week 1 of the NHL regular season.
Top 5 Betting Lines
Quick notes on betting on hockey games. You have the “puck line”, which is similar to the run line in MLB betting. The favored team with getting -1.5 goals as a line and therefore have to win by 2. On the flip side, the underdog will usually get +1.5 goals. The biggest variable that impacts this line is the empty net. Almost 100% of the time when a team is down by 1 goal with less than 3 minutes to go, they will pull their goalie at some point to get the extra skater. This greatly impacts the puck line. If you like the underdog, the +1.5 puck line is very intriguing but can be a trap in some cases, because if that team is down by 1 goal, that ticket would normally cash, but if they pull the goalie and the other team scores an empty net goal, that ticket is now a loser and there is no chicken dinner being served. As a general rule I try and live by this; if I like the dog, I’ll take them on the money line. If I like the favorite, I’ll play the puck line. In sports, betting the “right bet” is not always the one that wins, it’s the one that returns the best value and minimizes the losses. The other thing to point out is the total. The most common total for NHL games is 5.5 total goals. This typically includes overtime. If you see a 6.5 total, all you really need is a 3-3 game, and with overtime, you are guaranteed to cash. With that in mind, here are my top 5 plays for the week.
5. 10/11 Lightning/Rangers under 5.5 goals
You have the clear-cut two best goalies in the league squaring off in this one…. Nuff said. Gimme the under.
4. 10/13 Avalanche/Flames Over
This line hasn’t been released yet, but I imagine the total will be 6.5 goals. I expect this game to be high scoring as emotions will be high on both sides. I can’t wait for this one!
3. 10/12 Maple Leafs -1.5 over Canadians
Admittedly, the confidence level on this one is not super high, but it should work out. My concern is the goaltending for Toronto. There is no doubt in my mind the Maple Leafs will score goals in this game but with the loss of Jack Campbell, I’m a little concerned about their ability to keep pucks out of their net. You could also look at the over here, but I think the -1.5 puck line is the right play here.
2. 10/12 Avalanche -2.5 over Blackhawks
Avs are going to be hyped, and Ball Arena is going to be insane with it being a banner-raising night. Not to mention that the Blackhawks traded away most of their talent in the offseason and are in pure rebuilding mode. I’ll take the Avs even with the extra goal on the puck line. Most places have the puck line at plus money as well, which is an extra bonus in my eyes.
1. 10/12 Golden Knights/LA Kings over 6
This game should have a lot of offense. Goaltending on both sides are suspect. This would be a no-brainer at 5.5 but honestly, it’s not a huge difference here at 6. If somehow you get 6 goals without overtime, you will at least get a push.
If you like these picks, or heck even if you don’t, go check out these special offers from our sponsors and start cashing those tickets tonight! Follow me on Twitter @5280Jesse. Enjoy the games!
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