NFL
By: Greg Rector
Hi there NFL Mock Draft junkies. The real kick-off for mock drafting has begun and since many teams have made a splash in the free agency market along with trades, it’s time for a new first-round mock draft. We have a new team with the first overall pick and “needs” are being addressed so what many of us were thinking would happen has changed and there’s a bit more clarity overall. Let’s see how round one could shape up now. I will be doing a predictive draft so not it’s not what I would do draft but instead going with what teams have done in the past the value of players and the like.
Carolina Panthers
After trading away draft capital and DJ Moore to move up from the 9th pick to the 1st pick. I believe the Panthers will select:
CJ Stroud QB – Ohio State
Hear me out. Bryce Young is the QB1 for almost everyone. However, in his coaching career, new Panthers head coach Frank Reich has never worked with a quarterback who wasn’t at least 6’2″ and we know that’s nowhere near Young’s size. The Panthers must have a home run with this pick and I believe they will take a slightly less risky option and select Stroud.
Houston Texans
The Texans will select:
Bryce Young QB – Alabama
Unlike the Panthers, the Texans have a quarterback in Davis Mills. Many will criticize Mills I get it. The Texans though can protect Young somewhat and have Mills start the season. The reason is to allow Young time but more importantly, with an improved roster Mills can be showcased for a trade down the road as well. I am not as worried about Young’s size as most are. He’s got those intangibles that football junkies love. Leadership, character, poise, and will be fine. Just be ready for him to possibly not be the day one starter.
Las Vegas Raiders
I believe the Raiders will move up from the 7th pick with the Cardinals who need as much draft capital as possible. Yes they signed Jimmy G but with two “high ceiling” quarterbacks still available on the draft board the temptation for a quarterback of the future wins out and the Raiders select:
Will Levis QB – Kentucky
The big arm and other positive traits scouts love can learn from Garoppolo and the Raiders may benefit for years to come. Seeing a trend? YOU DO NOT NEED TO RUSH A FIRST-ROUND QB onto the field. Levis can learn and understand how to progress through reads and make better decisions than he did at Kentucky.
Indianapolis Colts
The team most thought likely to move up for the 1st overall pick did not. So the Colts end up with the highest risk but possibly the guy with the highest reward opportunity and select:
Anthony Richardson QB – Florida
Richardson had draft combine numbers never before seen as we all know. Like Levis though there’s a lot of work ahead to be able to improve as needed for the NFL game. The Colts don’t have much choice but to put his feet to the fire early. They have tried the veteran QB route since Andrew Luck retired and that’s failed miserably. Hopefully, Colts fans will be patient, though I have my doubts. The new Colts coaching staff will have to be very good teachers.
Seattle Seahawks
GM John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll have not shied away from players with “character” issues in the past, therefore with the 5th pick I believe the Seahawks select:
Jalen Carter DT – Georgia
Carter has misdemeanor charges to deal with as we all know. Seattle would be a good place for someone under scrutiny to land with. There’s no denying his ability to completely mess up an offense from the defensive interior and that’s missing in Seattle right now.
Detroit Lions
Dan Campbell and the Lions’ front office will be jumping for joy seeing the four QBs go off the board first. NFC North opponents will hate this as the Lions select:
Will Anderson Jr Edge – Alabama
With Aidan Hutchinson on one side and Anderson Jr on the other side of the defensive line opposing quarterbacks will need to speed up their release times. Many earlier on felt that a corner would be the pick here. Not when the draft falls like this and the Lions added corner Cam Sutton in free agency. The NFL sack leaderboard might be seeing a pair of Lions near the top for a few years to come.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals’ trade earlier with Las Vegas means they may not get Will Anderson Jr as almost every earlier mock draft had been going with. Instead, with the 7th pick, I believe they will select:
Tyree Wilson Edge – Texas Tech
Wilson is an excellent consolation prize for the Cardinals who are far away from contending in the NFC West and the extra draft capital will be needed. Tyree has an awesome physique and has those traits so sought after also. As he physically matures and learns the nuances of pass rushing he will be a great selection. I’ve also been told that the Cardinals were very impressed with Wilson at the draft combine.
Atlanta Falcons
There are always “runs” on certain positions in every draft. We already saw the first one in the 4 QBs and this pick will end a run on the edge position. I believe the Falcons will select:
Myles Murphy Edge Clemson
This had been the spot for Tyree Wilson in many mocks. So since he goes to Arizona the weak Falcons pass rush gets help in selecting Murphy. Like many prospects, he has areas that need to develop but should be a key piece of the Atlanta pass rush for years to come.
Chicago Bears
As I wrote back in January the Bears have dominated the off-season moves this trade-back is the prime example of that along with all the free-agent signings. Chicago can go many ways here now. I think with the 9th pick the Bears select:
Paris Johnson Jr OT – Ohio State
The trend of keeping a young quarterback happy by reuniting them with a college teammate will continue here. The Bears will make Justin Fields happy and improve the protection in front of him. With the new wide receiver in town, it is vital they make life easier on Fields. Now they might and I mean might look at Bijan Robinson here since David Montgomery is likely not returning. I think GM Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus avoid the whole drafting of a running back early fight though.
Philadelphia Eagles
This pick has been all over the map so far, to me I think it has been narrowed down thanks to the free agents leaving Philadelphia. The edge rushers and the one defensive tackle everyone loves are gone so the next deepest position becomes the cornerbacks. The Eagles will have their choice of the top three or four prospects but I think they select:
Devon Witherspoon Corner – Illinois
Witherspoon’s physical style and coverage ability to match just scream Eagles for me. They might like Joey Porter Jr here as well, but in a coin toss, I went with Witherspoon who will excel at the NFL level.
Tennessee Titans
Rumors are out there that the Titans may also try moving up to the 3rd pick, I just don’t see Arizona wanting to move down eight picks. Therefore with the 11th pick, I think the Titans select:
Peter Skoronski OL Northwestern
Notice I didn’t say tackle or guard with Skoronski? Mike Vrabel will love Skoronski’s versatility to operate anywhere on the offensive line. I don’t think they will be able to trade Derrick Henry either, so taking a good run blocker is a must for Tennessee.
Houston Texans
Since they drafted a quarterback and have signed some of the new head coach Demeco Ryan’s guys on defense, with the 12th pick, I believe the Texans select:
Quentin Johnson WR TCU
Some will question Johnson’s hands and other factors have come to light but overall Johnson is game breaker type of receiver that Houston needs to pair up with Young whenever they decide to have him start.
New York Jets
Many are thinking the Jets will lose this pick in the potential Aaron Rodgers deal. I disagree and it has everything to do with the dead cap hit the Packers face this season. if there is a first-round pick involved (Not sure) I believe it would be for the 2024 draft. With that said I believe the Jets with the 13th pick, will select:
Broderick Jones OT Georgia
If you have Aaron Rodgers, protecting the 39-year-old QB will be absolutely vital. With concerns about Mechi Becton’s injury history and his ability to get to a playing weight the Jets want him to be at, Jones is an excellent fit for the Jets.
New England Patriots
Always a hard task to figure out what is going on in Bill Belichick’s mind come the draft this could be anyone from anywhere at any position. So here goes the wild guess, with the 14th pick, the Patriots select:
Christian Gonzalez Corner – Oregon
Bill loves defense and adding one of the top corners in this draft class could be the way they go. Won’t be shocked by any pick Bill makes though.
Green Bay Packers
If Aaron Rodgers is gone new Packers quarterback Jordan Love will need help. This may mean selecting a wide receiver or tight end. The trouble is the history of the Packers shows they won’t like all the smaller receivers in this draft and with a deep TE class, they may opt to wait to give Love another weapon. For that reason with the 15th pick. the Packers select:
Lukas Van Ness Edge – Iowa
Van Ness just fits the Packers’ mold so much. A big physical edge who could also be moved inside sometimes. He may not have the deepest resume in terms of college snaps as he wasn’t even a starter for the Hawkeyes, but is one of this year’s prospects like Levis and Richardson who meet that “high ceiling” based on traits some teams love.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders appear to be ready for the Sam Howell era at quarterback to begin. There are no QBs left for the first round, they have receivers and backs in place as well. They also signed a couple of offensive linemen in free agency. With the 16th pick, the Commanders select:
Dalton Kincaid TE – Utah
Logan Thomas is no spring chicken and we all know the trend towards decent blocking tight ends but good to very good as a receiving threat. Kincaid fits that to a tee.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers took local product Kenny Pickett last year and that trend continues in this draft. With the 17th pick, the Steelers select:
Joey Porter Jr Corner – Penn State
The western Pennsylvanian football-crazed crowd will be ecstatic to get Porter Jr whose father played for the Steelers as well. More importantly, Porter Jr will fit in magnificently with the Steelers’ defensive scheme.
Detroit Lions
Since they helped the defense earlier and the top three corners are gone there are two options I think the Lions look at here. With the 18th pick, the Detroit Lions select :
Bijan Robinson RB – Texas
With the concerns over De’Andre Swift’s injuries and having Javon Williams not getting any younger, the Lions’ offense gets better with the player many have as the best running back prospect they have ever scouted in Robinson.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No Tom Brady and no quarterback worth a first-round selection. The Bucs also just traded Shaq Barrett. This pick could be any number of choices. With the 19th pick, Tampa selects:
Nolan Smith Edge – Georgia
Smith just has so much going for him outside of being considered small for the edge position. Like Bryce Young everything screams character is fantastic and as evidenced at Georgia he can make impact plays despite his size,
Seattle Seahawks
The defense got a major boost earlier so it’s time for some help for Geno Smith. With the 20th pick, the Seahawks select:
Jaxson Smith-Njigba WR – Ohio State
Opponents will need to account for Njigba which means the Seahawks duo of Lockett and Metcalf will be double-teamed less often. That’s the goal these days for offenses to create as many mismatches as possible and this pick does that for Seattle.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers letting Austin Ekler’s agent look at trade possibilities is a business more than a football decision. With the 21st pick, the Chargers select:
Zay Flowers WR – Boston College
The same scenario as Seattle. The Chargers’ veteran receiver duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams get someone who will open up the field for them. As an added bonus some guy named Justin Herbert will also have another option.
Baltimore Ravens
Yes, the saga over Lamar Jackson’s contract is still ongoing. I don’t see the Ravens losing him though. With the 22nd pick, the Ravens select:
Jordan Addison WR – USC
Ravens fans have screamed about a lack of good receivers so why not see the guy who has two impressive seasons in college come to town and give Ravens fans hope that Jackson with a true receiving threat can take them further in their playoff quest?
Minnesota Vikings
Plenty of changes have happened for the Skol brigade. Most of them have been on defense and with the 23rd pick, the Vikings will select:
Deonte Banks Corner- Maryland
Patrick Peterson is gone and the Vikings need to address the corner position. Banks might be one of the biggest upward movers in this draft class since the college football season ended. The Terrapins corner has all the qualities teams want in a corner and he was tested often in his time at Maryland. Had a great draft combine as well.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Here’s a rare sight. The Jaguars aren’t picking in the top ten as they so often have been. With the 24th pick, the Jaguars select:
O’Cyrus Torrence OG – Florida
Anytime you can improve the guys in front of Trevor Lawrence and help Travis Ettienne have bigger holes to run through you do it.
New York Giants
Well, some of the top wide receivers are gone now. The Giants have been mocked for selecting a receiver here for a long time. If they did take a receiver were in the land of “reaching.” Instead with the 25th pick, the New York Giants select:
Jack Campbell Linebacker – Iowa
Some might think this is a reach. I don’t Campbell is excellent against the run and covers well also. The Giants need to improve the linebacking room and Jack Campbell is the safest pick in this draft class. Read below…lol
They drafted TE Daniel Bellinger last year I know. However in the NFL these days multiple tight end sets are in vogue and since Saquon Barkley also is back getting as many good blockers as possible in front of him will be key. Mayer also will make an excellent safety valve for Daniel Jones. As I write this the Giants just traded for TE Darren Waller so I had the right idea. So I had to switch my pick.
Things have changed for the team I cheer and write about. Bijan Robinson Dalton Kincaid Nolan Smith and even O’Cyrus Torrence were generally available here. if I was in the Cowboys’ war room the temptation to trade down would be quite high the way the picks in front of Dallas have gone. With the 26th pick, the Cowboys select:
Jalin Hyatt WR – Tennessee
This will be considered a “reach” but with the acquisition of Stephon Gilmore and the re-singing of Donovan Wilson and Leighton Vander Esche, the Cowboys can afford to reach and get themselves a wide receiver with speed. They need to stretch the field and add that element that only Tony Pollard gives them currently.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bill’s safety room appears to be losing both starters and this safety group is not very deep. With the 27th pick, the Bills select:
Antonio Johnson Safety – Texas A&M
Johnson is graded by many as a second-round player, but we’ve reached the point in the draft where that really no longer applies.
Cincinnati Bengals
Plenty of positions on offense that can be addressed and like Buffalo the Bengals’ safety room took a hit. Protecting Joe Burrow though has to be the priority. With the 28th pick, the Bengals select:
Darnell Wright OT – Tennessee
Wright has played both left and right tackle. That versatility puts him just ahead of the in-state option Anton Harrison.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints have their quarterback in Derek Carr now. Where they could use the most help is the defensive line. With the 29th pick, the saints select:
Calijah Kancey DT – Pitt
Kancey may not fit the usual parameters for a defensive tackle but I am one of those who can’t stand putting positions needing to check off certain measurables. His ability and production mean more to me than fitting a body type. I think he does for the saints as well.
Philadelphia Eagles
Plenty of options this late in the first round for the Eagles. With the 30th pick, the Eagles select:
Felix Anudike- Uzomah Edge – Kansas State
We all know Howie Roseman loves drafting the trenches. The choices are slim on the offensive line and defensive interior. Instead, the eagles land another very good defender off the edge. Uzomah was good against the run and proved to be a very good pass rusher as well.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Super Bowl champions still had an excellent 2022 draft class. With the 31st and last pick of the 2023 NFL draft, the Chiefs select:
Adetomiwa Adebawore Edge – Northwestern
Frank Clark is no longer on the defensive line so taking Adebawore is simply the best player available at a position of need. Funny how draft boards fall so often for teams like Kansas City and Baltimore on an annual basis.
There you go a full first-round mock draft folks.
As always find me on Twitter @GregsCowboys
