NFL Draft 2023 - The Mock Simulators

By: Greg Rector

NFL Draft 2023 fanatics like myself will often start posting our mock drafts and we use mock simulators also to have various scenarios become a possibility, namely the draft weekend trades. Most of us create during the CFB season our own “Big Board” where we rank the prospects primarily based on the tried and true formula of the best player available, while still keeping in mind that in the draft process, there will also be players who get drafted early on because teams see them as having traits and tools that might not equal what we actually see on Saturday’s. Examples of that are easy to find and look no further than last year’s first overall selection Travon Walker by the Jaguars.

Most of us in scouting and mock drafting did not have Walker as our first player last year. Most of us had Aidan Hutchinson instead. However, Walker exploded during the draft combine process. He turned out pretty well for the Jaguars, but I would say Hutchinson had the better rookie season overall. That’s the subjectivity coming into play.

These factors all come into play when you see me or anyone posting their mock drafts. That’s where the simulators come into play. All of these factors can be added to the algorithms each site uses for mock drafts. The other factor that most people don’t get is the number of draft picks needed to move up or what value you get by trading back for extra picks. Let’s start with that, for years there was the “Jimmy Johnson” trade value chart. It’s now a bit different but the principle remains the same. Here is the current trade value chart used by NFL teams.

Round 1		Round 2		Round 3		Round 4		Round 5		Round 6		Round 7
1	3,000	33	580	65	265	97	112	129	43	161	27	193	14.2
2	2,600	34	560	66	260	98	108	130	42	162	26.6	194	13.8
3	2,200	35	550	67	255	99	104	131	41	163	26.2	195	13.4
4	1,800	36	540	68	250	100	100	132	40	164	25.8	196	13
5	1,700	37	530	69	245	101	96	133	39.5	165	25.4	197	12.6
6	1,600	38	520	70	240	102	92	134	39	166	25	198	12.2
7	1,500	39	510	71	235	103	88	135	38.5	167	24.6	199	11.8
8	1,400	40	500	72	230	104	86	136	38	168	24.2	200	11.4
9	1,350	41	490	73	225	105	84	137	37.5	169	23.8	201	11
10	1,300	42	480	74	220	106	82	138	37	170	23.4	202	10.6
11	1,250	43	470	75	215	107	80	139	36.5	171	23	203	10.2
12	1,200	44	460	76	210	108	78	140	36	172	22.6	204	9.8
13	1,150	45	450	77	205	109	76	141	35.5	173	22.2	205	9.4
14	1,100	46	440	78	200	110	74	142	35	174	21.8	206	9
15	1,050	47	430	79	195	111	72	143	34.5	175	21.4	207	8.6
16	1,000	48	420	80	190	112	70	144	34	176	21	208	8.2
17	950	49	410	81	185	113	68	145	33.5	177	20.6	209	7.8
18	900	50	400	82	180	114	66	146	33	178	20.2	210	7.4
19	875	51	390	83	175	115	64	147	32.6	179	19.8	211	7
20	850	52	380	84	170	116	62	148	32.2	180	19.4	212	6.6
21	800	53	370	85	165	117	60	149	31.8	181	19	213	6.2
22	780	54	360	86	160	118	58	150	31.4	182	18.6	214	5.8
23	760	55	350	87	155	119	56	151	31	183	18.2	215	5.4
24	740	56	340	88	150	120	54	152	30.6	184	17.8	216	5
25	720	57	330	89	145	121	52	153	30.2	185	17.4	217	4.6
26	700	58	320	90	140	122	50	154	29.8	186	17	218	4.2
27	680	59	310	91	136	123	49	155	29.4	187	16.6	219	3.8
28	660	60	300	92	132	124	48	156	29	188	16.2	220	3.4
29	640	61	292	93	128	125	47	157	28.6	189	15.8	221	3
30	620	62	284	94	124	126	46	158	28.2	190	15.4	222	2.6
31	600	63	276	95	120	127	45	159	27.8	191	15	223	2.3
32	590	64	270	96	116	128	44	160	27.4	192	14.6	224	2

As you can see every pick’s value is there. So if you want to trade up for the first overall pick, the picks needed to have the Bears agree to trade down this year will need to reach 3000 and because it’s likely the trade will be for the football’s most prized commodity a quarterback the value chart will be exceeded. Go back two drafts when the Niners, Jets, and Bears all made moves up it cost them plenty of draft capital to be able to select Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields. Again all simulators factor that in. If you need a visual go watch Draft Day with Kevin Costner. Once you understand these factors it is easier for you to also start mock drafting.

Since most folks are “fans” of a certain college team or a conference in addition to their favorite NFL team, rule number one is “DON’T SCOUT THE HELMET” of the college teams and understand how your favorite NFL team operates at the draft. The second one is not easy if your team has a new GM, so good luck with that. I would simply use the best player available until the new GM shows otherwise. Pay attention to your team’s scouting staff, they will give away traits and other factors they want to select. Okay then let’s look at some options out there for you to run your own simulations.

Pro Football Network

profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

The reason I chose this first is IT”S FREE. By that I mean you don’t need to pay to see the site scouting reports on players or to make trades as some other sites will later on that we look at. The reason is simple PFN doesn’t have scouting reports so you’ll need to have a separate site for that and there are a ton of free sites for that as well. You can select to do just the first round or all seven rounds. If you select all teams the simulator’s computers will run an automatic draft for you. You can also select your team and the computer will pick the rest while every time your team is up you get to select the player yourself. You can make trades (Use the chart above as a guide) or watch the simulation do it. If you run a “select all” the results for every franchise will come up at the end, if you are drafting for your team only your picks come up at the end. It allows you to see what the other teams have done and you also can use filters to find players by the position that is available when it’s your turn.

Don’t worry too much about their numerical order, that is their rankings and best guess as to where NFL teams will rank these players as well. Let’s say you opt to draft for the Cowboys with the 26th pick currently. When the draft begins the first time you might see Chicago select anyone from Jalen Carter, Will Anderson Jr or Myles Murphy first overall depending on how often you run the simulator.

That means much like the real draft a player you might be hoping to get is selected before you select or a player you didn’t think would ever be available is falling just like the draft weekend. This is a great option for beginners. While some get annoyed by the trade pop up the simulator will have other teams making you offers for your pick generally, more in the early rounds, you can accept reject or even counter the offers. So that part is also fun. If you counter an offer make sure you are within real parameters or it will be rejected. Always select fast as your speed option as well.

NFL Mock Draft Database

nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-draft-simulator

Another free site and the biggest difference for me is their trade value system is not really good. Not sure why they have such weak offers. Offset though by giving you the option still to make trades, but you’ll need to have a good understanding of the value chart. Once you select the parameters on the home page again choose the fast option especially if you are doing a full 7-round mock. The neat thing about this site? You can go back and do a “Redraft” from as far back as the 2017 draft year. Basically, a do-over based on the real performances of current NFL players from their draft season. You are an Eagles fan? Break the hearts of Minnesota Vikings fans and take Justin Jefferson instead of Jalen Reagor.

Pro Football Focus

pff.com

Yes, kids now it’s time for one of the big boys, the folks from PFF. You know them, you either love them or hate them. The other sites are fairly close to each other in their rankings. The folks at PFF as everyone knows use their own grading system and this is where the confusion begins for most people. I will give PFF credit in years past you had to pay for every feature imaginable including being able to make trades. Now the PFF “Big Board” is available. For their first 50 players, they offer snippets about the players. If you want further information on the rest of the prospects, you guessed it, you gotta pay for that. The grading system at PFF is like trigonometry, calculus, and algebra all coming at you at once. Good luck. Personally, I ignore their rankings and use my own. The feature I do like is the trade option.

You select the team you want to trade with, the draft picks and as you do so you can see the likelihood of the offer being accepted or rejected, you can also force the trade to go through. How different are the rankings? Well, the PFF Big Board as one example has Georgia cornerback Kelee Ringo at 46, go loom up 2023 draft big boards anywhere and I’ll be shocked if the current top-ranked corner for this draft isn’t in almost everyone’s top 15 players on the big boards. Ignoring their rankings though will also cost you when you see the results because everything at PFF is graded including your draft picks. Don’t get offended by seeing C- D- and F- when the results come up.

So with just those tools, I mentioned before you too can play NFL general manager and build your non-playoff team into a powerhouse in very short order. That’s what makes mock drafting fun. Just remember the rankings will again change after the Senior Bowl, and the draft combine. One thing none of these sites are good at? Ranking players from small schools the division two or division three players, or HBCU schools.

Mock away, folks!!!

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