NFL
By Steve Rogers
What: NFL NFC North matchup
Who: MN Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
When: 12:00 pm CT
Where: US BANK Stadium
How to tune in: Fox Network
Week five is here, and the Vikings are returning home from a hard-fought victory over the Saints in London. Next up for the Vikings is another divisional home game, this time against the Chicago Bears. The Bears are surprising me as they are 2-2 so far this year. I had them winning two to four games all year! However, since they have already equaled my low-end expectations, I have no choice but to reevaluate what they are doing.
The Bears are coming to town this Sunday. The palace of purple is going to be ready to rumble. Skol chants shall rain down and echo throughout the stadium. The atmosphere will be loud and oppressive. Justin Fields has been shouldering most of the load for the Bears on and off the field. As the starting QB, you become the face of the franchise. Even when the franchise is making moves that are unpopular or don’t seem to make a lot of sense. The Bears are very much still a team in flux and transition: a new GM, a new head coach, and new schemes to learn and execute.
Along with the dramatic personnel changes, most notably on the defensive side of the ball. They aren’t a bad team. They have good players; I just think there are too many changing moving parts to establish any consistency or chemistry and continuity. Every top organization has those in place up and down the franchise, from the front office to the players and coaches. I still think this team is heading towards a top ten draft pick next year rather than the playoffs this year. I think Fields will eventually be alright as the starter once he has a better knowledge of the system and more experience running it, along with surrounding him with more weapons on offense. Not to mention retooling the defense, but with near $100 million in cap space next year they will have plenty of bags to give out.
Shifting to the purple side of things,, I strongly feel the Vikings will rule their home turf and remain on top of the division. The Vikings are still looking to get consistent understanding and execution of the play calling. However, outside of the debacle (again) in Philidelphia, the Vikings continue to fight and find ways to win. Which is kind of the opposite of how last year felt. It seemed like we kept finding ways to lose, so I’m happy to see the narrative changing overall. Teams get tested in all kinds of ways throughout very year, so being resilient and overcoming adversity in all the ways the Vikings have will help prepare them for the long grind ahead. Hopefully, this week, they can put together a complete start-to-finish victory over a team they should be able to put away as they did in week one against the Packers. The latter keep getting pumped up in the power rankings over the deserving 2-0 in the division Vikings. How bout this? The Bears just lost to the Giants, who are a good team but not as good as the Vikings are.
Here are my keys to the Vikings coming away victorious. Aside from the obvious Justin Jefferson needs to ball out… Now Kirk Cousins needs to be confident and in command. When he makes good reads he makes great throws. He unlike most of the QB’s around the league who only have one or two legit pass catchers, Cousins has a plethera of sure handed catchers. Spreading the ball around is key to this offense getting rolling in this game. My next key is a piggyback off the first one the Vikings need to get Dalvin Cook the ball in more space to work his magic. He is a solid pass catching back and not just on screens. It’s time to line up Cook out wide or in the slot let him work on a line backer or safety in space or how bout some hb angle routes. My third offensive key is defining Adam Thielen’s role he needs to be the security blanket, safety valve, third down chain mover gotta have a reception either red zone or to get in field goal range. Speaking of field goals shout out to Greg Joseph hitting five of five last week, I can’t remember the last time a Vikings kicker that went five for five! He has been named NFC special teams player of the week. Special teams is not a key for me this week but it is nice to have confidence when the kicker is called on especially here in Mn where just saying the word “kicker” causes paranoid panic
My defensive keys this week are a little more basic. First the coverage in the passing game has to tighten up. They are currently ranked in the bottom of the statistics when it comes to coverage giving nearly three plus yards of separation per route is not good at all. The coverage has to improve sooner than later. Tighter coverage willlead to contested catches fewer yards after catch pass break ups incompletions and best of all interceptions. Yes, the Bears don’t have the same weapons as say the Eagles have so I think the coverage should be better this week. Which leads me to my next key turnovers. The Vikings don’t have enough fumbles or interceptions. My third key is getting not just pressure on Fields but getting sacks, which we also don’t have enough of. It’s time for Danielle Hunter to really get going, time for his signature door kick down sack celebration to be seen on a regular basis. Between the designed rush and Fields attempting to escape using his mobility the Vikings should have four to six sacks this week. Those are my defensive keys for victory against the Bears yes they do go hand in hand. If you get better coverage the windows are smaller for the QB to throw to making him scan longer hesitate, which allows more time for the pass rush to get home and cause sacks, fumbles and tipped passes. Which then leads to bad throws wobblers early late on timing routes and then you get interceptions. Thats my defensive formula for winning coverage+ pass rush+ turnovers= victory.
Here’s what the experts are saying on the betting side. Matchup Predictor has Vikings at 82% chance to win. The spread is currently at -7 for the Vikings. The Vikings are 3-0 against the spread. The Bears are 2-1 against the spread. The money line has the Vikings -335 and the Bears are+260. The over under is at 44. Last week the Bears only managed 12 points, the Vikings needed 28 to get a win that’s only 40 combined points. It feels like the Vikings offense should be leading the league in points but that hasn’t been the case so far. They could be putting up 35 per half but they’re only averaging just over 21. The safe play here is the under but I’m gonna go on the line and say the Vikings offense wakes up at home and puts up 34 the Bears will get 17 to 20. Vikings will win again at home and look good doing so too. As always Skol Vikings!
