NFL
By: Ryan Cooley
*All stats/grades are via PFF
Dan Quinn has officially hired Kliff Kingsbury and Joe Whitt Jr as his coordinators. Now Washington can turn their attention to building the roster.
The biggest question will be what Washington does with the #2 overall pick. There is speculation that the addition of Kingsbury means they will attempt to trade up for the 1st pick to select USC’s Caleb Williams. However, that is an article for another day. This one will focus on the Commanders staying put at two.
There are two quarterbacks currently on the table for the 2nd pick. North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. This article will look at both prospects and who I believe is more worthy of the 2nd overall pick.
Drake Maye
Stats in 2023:
- 90.6 overall grade
- 75.1% adjusted completion percentage
- 3,608 passing yards (8.5 yds/att)
- Average depth of target: 11 yards
- Average time to throw: 2.79 seconds
- 29 sacks (19.6% pressure to sack rate)
- 92 rushes for 582 yards (6.3 yds/carry)
- 21 missed tackles forced
Pros
Standing at 6’4 and 230 lbs, Maye has more than ideal size to play QB at the next level. Even at 230 lbs, he looks like he could easily put on an extra 5-10 lbs. What makes Maye special is his arm. In today’s game, top QBs like Mahomes, Allen, and Herbert can make any throw. It doesn’t matter if pressure is in their face or if they are throwing off their back foot. Maye has shown this same ability over and over again at UNC.
Drake Maye Back foot pic.twitter.com/RJRi2GFqxh
— Savage (@SavageSports_) February 5, 2024
Maye’s ability to attack the middle of the field is what separates him from other QBs in this class. According to PFF, when throwing deep center, Maye has the highest passing grade in the entire class at 97.7.
While he isn’t on the level of Jayden Daniels in the rushing department, Maye is still an underrated athlete. In the past two seasons, he has run for 1,481 yards on 245 attempts (6 yards/carry) and 16 TDs.
The rushing savvy in the open field from Drake Maye is excellent. Evades tacklers without taking a major hit pic.twitter.com/SeCModCDeq
— Tyler Forness (@TheRealForno) May 10, 2023
Cons
The biggest issue with Maye is his inconsistent accuracy. One play, he will thread the needle between two defenders 30 yards downfield. The next play, he will sail the ball over a receiver’s head on a five-yard out route. Pro Football Focus’ Nick Akridge mentioned how Maye’s footwork can get sloppy, leading to his accuracy issues.
i really, really like drake maye, but he does have some weird lapses of inaccuracy.
this is the worst ive seen but it pops up. not even close lol. pic.twitter.com/X6VvaQMIgj
— Mike Faltas (@chi_faltas) January 24, 2024
Maye’s decision-making can also be up and down. At times, he’ll pass up his first read when it’s open or he will force throws that aren’t there. The forcing tends to come when he breaks out of the pocket and tries to play hero ball.
Maye also has a bad habit of drifting toward his reads. This puts more stress on his offensive line and leads to unnecessary pressures and sacks. I would also like to see him learn to throw with more touch. Just about every throw he made at UNC was a fastball.
Jayden Daniels
Stats in 2023:
- 94.7 overall grade
- 79.6% adjusted completion percentage
- 3,811 passing yards (11.5 yds/attempt)
- Average depth of target: 10.5 yards
- Average time to throw: 2.91 seconds
- 21 sacks (20.2% pressure to sack rate)
- 4 rushing grade
- 120 rushes for 1,250 yards (10.5 yards/carry)
- 47 missed tackles forced
Pros
No one in this class is close to Daniels when it comes to running the ball. His 10.5 yards per carry is the highest among every prospect by a wide margin. He is projected to run a 4.4 forty-yard dash. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is under a 4.4. In the past two seasons, he has forced 101 missed tackles.
NFL Defensive Coordinators will lose many nights of sleep trying to figure out how to contain Jayden Daniels for a play let alone 60 minutes.
pic.twitter.com/sE6oISb781
— Jeremy (@PopesFFH) February 6, 2024
Daniels was an elite deep passer in 2023. His 99.2 passing grade on deep passes (20+ yards) ranked first in all of college football. On vertical routes, he would consistently hit receivers perfectly in stride. You tend to see a lot of deep balls in college be underthrown where the receiver has to slow down to make the catch. This allows the defender to catch up and tackle them right after making the catch. This was not the case with Daniels.
Despite throwing downfield often, Daniels isn’t reckless with the ball. His 1.6% turnover-worthy play rate ranked 4th lowest. In 2022, that rate was even lower at just .6%, which ranked lowest in the country.
Cons
Over the past two seasons, Daniels has had a pressure to sack rate of 26%. This is right on track with Howell who had a career P2S% of 26.7%. This statistic is one that consistently translates to the NFL.
He also has a tendency to throw slightly behind receivers on horizontal routes. It wasn’t an issue at the college level, but in the NFL, there will be far less separation between defenders and receivers. This can lead to more incompletions and potential interceptions.
At 6’4 and only 215 lbs, Daniels has a very thin frame. There are concerns about how he will handle hits in the NFL. Being a QB who runs at the volume Daniels does, he won’t be able to avoid every hit. To make matters worse, he rarely slides. With the number of hits he took in 2023, I am surprised he made it through the entire season.
i saw @Nate_Tice say Jayden Daniels has some Johnny Knoxville to his game. incredible comp pic.twitter.com/AjbQLJAvIq
— Danny Kelly (@DannyBKelly) February 8, 2024
Final Verdict: Draft Drake Maye
When you look around the league, many of the QBs who are successful have a skill set/traits similar to Maye. He won’t be perfect right out of the gate, but the payoff is worth the risk. Between his arm and underrated athleticism, there is a reason his most common comps are Justin Herbert and Josh Allen.
While Daniels wouldn’t be a bad pick, I do believe he is near his ceiling. I am always cautious when it comes to QBs that have started five years in college and didn’t “break out” until their 5th season. While Daniels is a vastly better athlete, you can’t expect him to be the same threat as a runner at the next level.
From a passing standpoint, Daniels has a good but not great arm. Sure, he is a more refined/polished passer than Maye is right now. However, I believe that stems from starting for five years vs two years. Maye has a lot to work on before he can be successful at the next level, but I believe his ceiling is vastly higher than Daniels.
When you hold the #2 overall pick, I would rather take a chance on a prospect like Maye instead of playing it safe with a QB like Daniels.
