NFL
By: Stephen Garner
Entering play Thursday the Chicago Bulls reside atop the Eastern Conference at 32-18, and have the NBAs sixth best record.
They are, for all intents and purposes, right where they want to be.
Amazingly, they’ve stayed afloat amidst all the adversity that’s come their way.
When full and intact, they have a very solid roster on paper and said pieces mesh together at a high-functioning level.
Even optically, their roster fits for the system they deploy on the offensive end.
However, when you zoom in, you see room for improvement on the fringes.
Tweaks to bolster the latter end of their rotation and improve their top eight-to-ten players (Billy Donovan’s deemed playoff rotation) is where they leave more to be desired, mainly in the frontcourt.
Through 50 games played, having injuries along with Health and Safety Protocols cycled through, taken into consideration, they have a few glaring weaknesses in my estimation:
- Rebounding – Size in the frontcourt amongst players that’ll play playoff minutes
- Pick and roll defense/versatility – playing drop coverage all series long in the playoffs is counterintuitive and far from conducive to winning past mid-April, no matter how much point of attack pressure you can apply
- Perimeter defense – specifically pertaining to matchups with bigger wings
- Toughness and grit from their frontcourt
How does Paul Millsap help?
He brings a tough and gritty dynamic to the fold, one that’s no-nonsense and very business-like, which the Bulls lack in the frontcourt and is a dynamic that would be embraced by the fanbase (& would at times be eerily similar to and reminiscent of the workhorse nature of play, engaging the crowd as Taj Gibson did for years). That would be a perfect compliment with the intangibles Caruso, Ball, Green, and Dosunmu already bring.
Versatility in the frontcourt, as he can alleviate stress from Donovan and the Bulls defense, allowing them to deploy multiple pick and roll coverages, which is an area that’s plagued them greatly this season. Millsap can tag or blitz in a double-teams, play at the level of the screen, play in a semi-drop that won’t be exploited, or switch when need be and close air space on dribblers outside the 3-point line
He gives them a viable small ball option and back up 5:
Lineups with Millsap at the 5 in Denver by efficiency differential:
- 104 possessions in 2019-20: +18.1 (95th percentile)
- 419 possessions in 2020-21: +10.7 (95th percentile)
In both the 19-20 and 20-21 renditions, the Nuggets defense ascended to its peak abilities with Millsap functioning as the 5, while remaining well-functioning offensively.
These lineups aren’t deployed for quarter-long stints, rather 3-5 minute spans while the dynamic starting centers rest, but it’s his IQ in anchoring, especially with the bodies the Bulls have in comparison to what those Nuggets teams had, that suggest this is a great match.
For context there, the center in Denver was of course Nikola Jokic. The center with the Bulls is Nikola Vucevic. Think of those twos style of play, where they operate, and their strengths/weaknesses.
In terms of comparisons, the closest player in similarity for skillset as an overall talent to Jokic, is Vucevic.
The deficiencies Vuc has are similar to those that Jokic has as well, so Millsap has numerous seasons of repetition functioning well both alongside and stepping up in place of a center with holes in his ability on defense.
With his skill set, he’ll also excel being used the way the Bulls centers function on offense: setting screens, executing dribble handoffs, playmaking from the middle of the floor via the short roll, excelling from the dunkers spot area of the floor, and still providing floor spacing in all of that.
Viability in Vucevic’s off minutes.
When he’s on the floor, the Bulls are scoring at 113.6 points per 100 possessions (73rd percentile), and they allow 111.5 per (44th percentile), good for a +2.0 in differential (62nd percentile).
When Vucevic sits, they’re a middling +0.9 in differential with the defense plummeting to 34th percentile (112.6 points allowed per 100 possessions). In those possessions with him resting they also struggle to both defend without fouling, and grab defensive rebounds.
He’d allow the Bulls to play their same style of offense for 48 minutes (excluding his brief stint with the Nets, he’s shot 37.1% from 3 for the combined four seasons prior) which would greatly benefit their pace and level of play over the course of 48 minutes.
Even more, lineups with him featuring any two of Ball/Caruso/Dosunmu/Green around two of LaVine/DeRozan/Vucevic, or him plus any three of those guys secondary guys with just one of LaVine/DeRozan/Vucevic is sure to cause an uptick in deflections, garner stops and pace, then most importantly, secure rebounds to end possessions which in turn unlocks the Bulls potent and explosive transition offense.
He’s also been able to flourish in his role as a help defender again, causing havoc from the weakside when sharing the floor with Vucevic.
In all, Millsap is the perfect placement to play both next to, and in place of Vucevic in his off minutes. He brings the appropriate intangibles, especially in the frontcourt, that a team as offensively inclined as the Bulls are, needs to bring balance, does so while adding to the overall versatility of their frontcourt, and has the prerequisites in repetitions as well as a skillset to play with a roster as top-heavy as the Bulls roster is.
The Bulls would then have a workhorse at each position, inching them closer and closer to their peak.
They’d also relinquish themselves from being solely dependent upon the hopeful return and subsequent rapid reintegration period that’s ensuing for Patrick Williams.
Its likely they will wait it out in terms of Millsap and his ties to the Nets.
My @NBAonTNT report on Paul Millsap who is in Atlanta training while Brooklyn Nets search for a trade. In a phone conversation with the veteran, he spoke about the matter for the first time. pic.twitter.com/gnWDJUKgwq
— Chris Haynes (@ChrisBHaynes) February 2, 2022
He’s currently under contract, but it’s more than likely that he’ll hit free agency via a buyout should there be no trade surface for him (and all reports claim there is no market via trade for the veteran forward).
The best case scenario for the Bulls to attain his talents would be via said buyout, as they wouldn’t need to part ways with any roster pieces or picks, and could add him on a veteran minimum contract for the rest of the season.
He still has plenty juice to be effective in 15-20 minute role a night, and can be a factor on the floor both in help, on the ball, and at the rim defensively:
As evident by plays like these from the early portion of the season. He is also, still, effective as a screener, playmaker in the middle of the floor, and spotting up.
Paul Millsap and his mature motor + leadership would grow to become a key cog for this high-powered Chicago Bulls team, fortifying them with leadership and a brand of basketball that’s important come playoffs.
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