NFL
By Keith Richards
The date is November 17, 2024, at 5:51 PM MST. After smashing the Atlanta Falcons to move to 6-5 on the season, the Denver Broncos are in a good place. I’d take it further and say the Denver Broncos are in an unexpected place. Anyone who expected to be 6-5 at this point in the season is either delusional or lying.
Right now, the Broncos are in a place where, if they keep playing at their current level and get help from other teams in the conference, they could make the playoffs as a wildcard. At this time last season, the Broncos were, at least record-wise, not far from this season. After 11 weeks, Denver was 5-5, with their bye week being in Week 9. However, it’s not quite the same as last season.
Today, we look at the 2024-25 Denver Broncos’ good offensive improvements and hindrances. After the slow start to the 2023-24 season, the Denver defense remains stellar. The early turnaround has been on the offensive side of the ball. What makes this team different from the 2023-24 squad on offense?
The Broncos Offense Improvements
Since the season is not over, it’s hard to compare the offense as a whole season over season, but let’s compare the two seasons up to this point. Through 11 weeks this season, here’s where the Broncos offense stands:
- 197.5 passing yards per game
- 116 rushing yards per game
- 313.5 total yards per game
Now, through 11 weeks, here’s where the 2023-24 Broncos offense stood:
- 173.6 passing yards per game
- 100.2 rushing yards per game
- 273.8 total yards per game
So, with a year-over-year comparison through Week 11, the Denver Broncos are gaining 23.9 more YPG in passing, 15.8 more YPG rushing the ball, and 39.7 more total YPG. There’s no other way to say it. That’s a win, and it’s in large part due to Bo Nix.
Sean Payton has found the quarterback he believes can lead the Broncos back to the Promise Land: a Super Bowl. It’s no secret that Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos marriage ended in a nasty divorce. Well, at least it’s bad for the Broncos and their fans. After June 1st of this year, Denver released Wilson, which shows just how bad the relationship was.
By cutting Wilson, Denver guaranteed they would take cap hits of $53 million and $32 million in 2024 and 2025, respectively. I’m one of the few who believes this, but I don’t think that the failure of the Russell Wilson Project was solely on the former Super Bowl-winning quarterback. Season One was the Nathaniel Hackett season. Nothing else needs to be said there.
Season Two saw the arrival of Sean Payton. There was a strong belief that including Payton would equate to a good offense that could support a great defense. That was not the case. Wilson was not the quarterback Payton wanted. It showed in the play calling, the lack of unity, and the morale of the entire offense. However, that period of history in Denver is over. For now, it appears the Broncos are well on their way to kicking off the Bo Nix era.
Nix has played as well as you can expect a rookie to play. For sure, Nix is one of the more capable rookies so far this season, which one would hope so after spending five years in college. Much of that was as a starter as well. Thus far, Sean Payton is using that maturity to the team’s advantage.
Though the numbers are not quite where I imagine Payton would want them to be, the offense continues to improve as the season progresses. Bo Nix processes the field well and maneuvers the pocket better than many of the league’s veterans. As he was praised for coming out of college, you’re starting to see the accuracy many believed to be, by far, the best of any QB in the draft. Much of that can be attributed to Garett Bolles.
The 2024-25 season is a contract year for Bolles and the Denver Broncos. Currently, Garett has a base salary of $16 million and carries a cap hit of $20 million. Moving on from Bolles would be a bonus for a team with many holes to fill. However, Garett Bolles wants to stay in Denver, and he’s not giving them any reason to move on.
Through 11 weeks, Bolles has only allowed one sack over the 600-plus snaps on the field. Kristopher Knox of Bleacher Report has Bolles as the 16th-best available free agent in the 2025 market. With many teams needing love at the offensive tackle position, Garett will likely receive lucrative offers outside of Denver.
There is only one knock on Bolles, but it’s big. So far, number 72 has been called for ten penalties, many holding penalties. Given the prowess of many of the edge rushers in the NFL, some may be sympathetic to Bolles and overlook his history of penalties. With not many good-to-elite tackles available, I imagine Bolles will propose a significant contract to Bolles. It’s a matter of if someone offers more and how much Bolles wants to be in Denver.
Another bright spot for the Denver Broncos offense has been Courtland Sutton, another player in their contract’s final year. Sutton has been a steady presence for the Broncos rookie quarterback. He’s on pace to surpass his season totals of total yards, receptions, yards per reception, and first downs from last season.
The Broncos’ contract for Courtland Sutton is more tricky. Though Sutton will not command the contract of a player like Justin Jefferson, some high-quality receivers will be available in the 2025 free-agent market. Players like Tee Higgins, Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, and DeAndre Hopkins could be more desirable options.
Humphrey, Reynolds, Vele, Franklin, and Mims Jr. could all compete for complementary WR2 and WR3 spots to support a stellar WR1. Again, it will depend on how the Broncos want to spend their money. Should they keep as much of the team together as possible or continue to bring in fresh blood? We shall see.
The Broncos Offense Hindrances
The most enormous hole in the Broncos’ offense is their lack of explosiveness. Players like Franklin and Mims Jr. have explosive tendencies, but they don’t translate on the field. Coming into their win this week, Bo Nix was 25th in the league in both completed air yards per completion (4.8) and completed air yards per attempt (3.1).
There are a couple of reasons for these numbers. First, the Broncos’ receivers do not get much separation. They excel in the short-to-mid passing game. Where they excel most is yards after the catch. Nix is 15th in the league with 972 yards after the catch. So, they do well when the receiver gets the ball into space per schemed play. The issue is creating space for themselves on deep routes.
Second, Denver has had many dropped passes. Through ten weeks, Broncos receivers had dropped 15 passes. That’s the fault of both the receivers and Bo Nix. While the Broncos receivers have dropped some beautiful passes thrown by Nix, the rookie is third in the league in bad passes.
Bo ranks third in the league with 60 bad passes, which accounts for 19.2% of his plays. So, like many scouts feared, the deep ball is a concern for Nix. A player pressured on only 18.2% of his dropbacks should have fewer bad passes, and his receivers should be able to catch more passes. It’s an issue they’ll need to address in the offseason, and we could see improvements over the last seven games of the season as well.
The Denver Broncos’ offense has improved dramatically, but much remains to be done. A lot will depend on what they do in free agency. The team will have over $70 million in cap space available for 2025. As mentioned above, though, they have many holes to fill with that many and have at least two players on whom they need to make significant decisions.
The rest will depend on Bo Nix’s development. Too often in the past decade, a rookie comes in and plays well but then regresses quickly. Ironically, what the team does in free agency and the development of Nix go hand in hand. If the team plays their free agency cards right, they can find/keep players that will support the growth of Nix. If they don’t, Nix could be another promising player that goes to waste.
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