NFL
By: Ryan Cooley
*All statistics/grades are via Pro Football Focus
The Washington Commanders are currently one of the hottest teams in the league. After starting the season at 1-4, they have the best record in the NFL in the last seven weeks at 6-1.
One difference from the start of the season is the quarterback. While most would attribute the quarterback change as a big factor in the team’s turnaround, that may not be the case. In fact, in many areas, Heinicke has been worse than Wentz. This article is not about who should be starting. Heinicke will be the starting quarterback for the rest of the season.
Instead, I wanted to look at ways Heinicke can improve and help this team’s chances at making the playoffs.
Heinicke Currently
Before I discuss what Heinicke can do to help, let’s look at what he has done through six games and where some of those stats/grades rank.
The biggest concern is how reckless Heinicke has been with the football. While he only has 5 interceptions, he currently has 12 Turnover Worthy Plays (a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling – PFF). His 6.1% TWP rate ranks the highest among qualifying quarterbacks. For comparison, Wentz only had a 3.5% TWP rate. To put this in simpler terms, Taylor puts the ball in harm’s way more than any other quarterback.
Heinicke’s adjusted completion percentage (completion % that excludes drops, spikes, throwaways, etc.) ranks 32nd of 38 quarterbacks at 70%. His average time to throw (TTT) is 2.95 seconds, ranking the 6th slowest. This statistic was fairly surprising as Wentz’s TTT was 2.65 seconds, ranking 14th fastest. For a player that has been in this system for years, you would expect him to get rid of the ball quicker.
The one area Heinicke has excelled in through six games is avoiding sacks. Wentz’s lack of mobility killed countless drives. One statistic that tells how well a quarterback can escape pressure is pressure-to-sack percentage. Wentz was sacked 25.3% of the time he was pressured. This, paired with Washington’s offensive line currently ranking 27th in pass block win rate, was a recipe for disaster.
However, Taylor Heinicke’s pressure-to-sack percentage sits at 11.7%. This is currently the 4th best in the league. While Taylor has several issues that limit the offense, not being stuck in 2nd or 3rd and long has helped them tremendously.
Other Heinicke statistics/rankings:
- Average depth of target: 8.3 yards – 16th of 38
- Passing grade: 49.5 – 37th of 38
- Passing grade when under pressure: 27.7 – 33rd of 37
How Heinicke Can Improve
While Heinicke won’t turn into a top-10 quarterback for the next five games, he can clean some things up to help this team reach the postseason.
The first is simply being less aggressive. Heinicke throws the ball 10 yards or further on nearly 35% of his attempts. For comparison, Patrick Mahomes, one of the best deep passers in the game has thrown the ball 10 yards or further on only 30% of his attempts. Heinicke’s 8.3 average depth of target ranks higher than Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, and Burrow. I am not saying Washington should never throw the ball downfield, but I would like to see more attempts in the 0-9 yard range.
Heinicke’s mobility has helped mask the offensive line’s pass-blocking issues. However, for a mobile quarterback, he hasn’t run all that much. He only has 10 scrambles on the year (5.2% of dropbacks). Mac Jones who is far less mobile and dealing with similar offensive line struggles, has scrambled more frequently.
Heinicke also needs to get the ball out of his hands quicker. He has too many plays where he tries to make something out of nothing. There have been plays where he should have hit his checkdown for 5-6 yards. Instead, he holds onto the ball and throws it into double coverage. Throwing it away or even taking a sack is better than throwing an interception.
Despite having arguably the weakest arm in the league, Heinicke possesses a gun-slinger mentality. Those two traits do not mesh well. Being less aggressive, making quick/smart decisions, and relying more on his legs would help this offense greatly.
Since week six, the defense has given up under 15 points per game. You can make the argument they are the best unit in the NFL. Due to this, Washington doesn’t need an offense that scores 30+ a game. Pairing this defense with an offense that can sustain drives and limit turnovers will likely lead to a playoff appearance.
With the Giants and Seahawks beginning to struggle, all three wildcard spots are open. If Heinicke can play smarter and more conservatively, I believe Washington will find itself in the postseason.
