NFL
By: Stephen PridGeon-Garner
This series between the Sky and Sun will be one of the absolute best defensive matchups we will see in these playoffs.
Versatility galore – in lineups, scheme, and personnel, will ring loud and ever-present as Curt Miller and James Wade do battle in the semifinals for the second season in a row.
Their regular season series went 4-0 in favor of the reigning champions.
It saw plenty of back and forth play, especially in crunch time, and the average margin of victory was a mere 4.5 points.
In fact, including a period of overtime in the third of their four matchups, a camp day eight-point win at the end of June proved to be the widest margin of their season-series.
This is a star-studded matchup with numerous all-stars and all-WNBA performers everywhere.
Familiarity breeds great competition, and no two teams know each other as well as these two over the last two seasons. Get your popcorn ready because, for the duration of this one, it’ll be chippy, physical, competitive, and (very) engaging.
Defense, Defense, and, you Guessed It, More Defense
Defense is at the forefront of everything these two teams do, and is synonymous with their identities.
This will serve as much of a mirror series in level of aggression, scheme, physicality, and functionality, as both love to dictate tempo and just where shots are taken from most frequently. They’re master manipulators in that regard.
These are the second (Connecticut – 96.3) and fourth (Chicago – 99.7) ranked teams in defensive rating on the season.
The Sun, specifically, had the best defensive rating since the All-Star break with a 95.6 mark. A torrid pace of sorts.
Add to that, in the same window post All-Star break, they amassed a 20.5 forced turnover percentage that was second to only the Los Angeles Sparks but by-far the best of the four teams left in the playoffs, and you get a glimpse via numbers at how consistently disruptive they are.
They’re a team that, though they fared well in the regular season marathon, is specifically structured to see successes at this specific juncture of the season, in the playoffs.
I wrote about their defense early this season and just how frequently and consistently they sent sets and actions off-script in the halfcourt. For me, it is what makes this matchup with the Sky most intriguing.
They have a ton of size and length independent of their front court pieces, from the likes of Bonner and Carrington who exponentially add value to their defensive schemes around Alyssa Thomas.
You can begin to see the picture painted for the type of team they have amassed, and the philosophy they put forth.
Connecticut is (beyond) solid, active, and versatile defensively, take away the three-point line with attention to detail in running opponents off the line, and collectively rebound the basketball with malicious intentions (1st in rebounds per game, rebound rate, offensive rebounds per, offensive rebound rate, and were 2nd in defensive rebound rate).
Both of these teams feast on giving opposing offenses trouble. Oftentimes, sending primary and secondary actions off-script (if not outright taking the ball away), providing proverbial speed bumps and dragging them into the mud via taking specific functions away with consistency.
Length and activity galore, it will be a treat to see the schemes and efforts of these collectives in action, and, in-turn, watching for how these two teams function offensively to adjust, counter, or react to what the defense is presenting.
For both teams, the activity at the level of the screen will be the consistent dynamic at the forefront. On top of ball pressure, both teams love to dictate pace and action defensively. You’re not going to be comfortable, if able at all, to run your offense on a consistent basis against these teams. There will be a demand placed upon you to play basketball in read and react in a manner that is not stagnant. Therefore, whichever is able to sustain rhythm and flow within their halfcourt actions is sure to have the edge in this one.
These are the demands of postseason hoops that separates these tier of teams from the middle of the pack.
Prolific Paint Pressure
Behind play at the level of screens and at the point of attack, play underneath that in the paint and how shots are manufactured for each team will be a point to watch as well.
The Sky lead these playoffs with 52 paint points per game, while the Sun trail in second at 46. These were also the regular seasons best there as well, with the Sky leading at 42.1 per, and the Sun at 39.6.
The Sun have paint dwellers that command attention from more than just one player on the catch. Sometimes, that attention will be garnered even before the catch with tactics like early and heavy post fronting.
In that, the matchups between reigning MVP Jonquel Jones, all league performer Alyssa Thomas, and likely sixth player of the year Brionna Jones, versus the trio of Candace Parker, Emma Meesseman, and Azurá Stevens, may be the most important to watch for.
Jonquel Jones is one of the most versatile scorers in the game of basketball, enabling her to be a pressure point from a variety of spots all over the floor. Whether it’s isolation mid-post touches or on the wing, traditional post touches via flex/cross/slice screens, and even at the top of the key in trailing, she’s able to navigate to advantageous spots all over the floor via self creation, and knock down an assortment of what for most players would be deemed tough shots.
At 6’6 with dexterity and lateral mobility coupled with foot speed, she’s a unicorn and a cheat code in herself.
She also has great processing speed.
2 plays encapsulating how collectively smart, & even with 2 new starters just how already connected the Sun are
Playing off of JJ's post ups & gravity with disciplined spacing, second-side movement, & intelligent cuts creating advantageous looks + the Courtney Williams dynamic pic.twitter.com/IMOtZyl3Si
— Stephen PridGeon
(@StayTrueSDot3) June 16, 2022
Her ability to deliver, and natural ability to have advantageous angles in passing out of doubles regardless of when and where they come from is often taken advantage of is almost scheme-proof. Almost.
No assist here this was my first time seeing Jonquel Jones live, & the timing & awareness playing off of her gravity in the post was as impressive as seeing it on TV
She generates a whole lot of offense off presence alone
Creates this entire look pic.twitter.com/Uq6SuMrsTC
— Stephen PridGeon
The Sky are sure to send doubles at her, and experiment with doing so in ways to keep her guessing. Whether that’s from the baseline, from the passer, or from the weak side, Wade and company won’t give her a steady diet of the same coverage.
These touches for Jones and the subsequent attention garnered by defenses renders rotations inevitable, it’ll be a game within the game to consistently see just how on time and on schedule the Sky are in these scenarios, as if they can continue to wreck havoc with discipline and execution while rotating, it’ll help them tilt the scale and play against unbalanced and unset defense in transition or in their flow, avoiding the speed bump that is the Sun and their halfcourt defense.
Independent of Jonquel, they also have Brionna Jones, who is an absolute post technician, maybe THE post technician this season (averaged 9.3 points in the paint, ranking 5th in the W), and has a multitude of soft touch finishes in finesse that balance and supplement her power attacks with counters. She also averaged the second most field goal attempts in the restricted area this season, with 6.0 attempts on 66.8% which is a very high clip and volume. She’s able to be a pressure point from the paint in a different manner than Jonquel.
Breezy is also a menace on the offensive glass, grabbing the second most per game at 2.6, and also the second most in total at 95 on the season.
Rounding out their trio of frontcourt pieces is Alyssa Thomas, aka “The Engine.” She is THE swiss army knife of the W, and has an all-encompassing impact on the game to match. She lives in the paint and was third at 5.9 attempts per game in the restricted area.
If Thomas had an NBA comp in terms of how she maneuvers offensively in the paint to get off shots, Shawn Marion would come to mind. She has every soft touch shot, orthodox or not, in her bag and can also playmake as well as anyone after generating paint touches.
The inside-out play they pose is taxing in physicality to defend.
I look forward to seeing the many ways they flow into touches for those three vs the Skys ever-active frontcourt.
Of note: the Sky love to contest the catch for opposing post players especially, and also push them off their initial spots, doing so consistently without fouling will be imperative as they’ll be directly involved in actions guarding the ball with more frequency than last series.
Guard play
Important here will also be the play of the likes of Heideman, Williams, Simms, and Carrington against the Skys glut of guards.
The Sun see consistent variance in productivity and activity from their guard group. They’ve gotten by sans leader Jasmine Thomas, but her absence specifically in this series will ring more loudly than at any point this season. That goes for her setting the table offensively, but even more-so on the defensive end.
The Sun guard group had a rough time containing the Skys group attack of perpetual motion. It’s partly a concept and philosophy contrast, as the Sky space the floor very well and the Sun like to play up the line with pressure in passing lanes, while the Sky never fight pressure. Add to that, the Sky having multiple players able to connect passes to moving targets on the cut, you see how that can become a compromising matchup for the Sun on the perimeter.
Also, independent of cutting, was the Kahleah Copper pressure puzzle. She was 21-30 (70%) at the rim against the Sun this season, and remained a riddle for them to solve.
The Sun threw different matchups at her and even pre-rotated at times, showing early help just to give her bodies to see on the catch.
Coach Wade spoke to her growing feel for the game with me shortly after the break:
To his points, and as i’ve mentioned all season, the fact that her drives have grown more nuanced with hesitations, speed changes, and change of direction all intertwined, it’s made her even harder to defend than before, and she consistently even beats the pre-help because of this evolution.
Courtney Vandersloot vs “unders” in pick-and-roll
I asked her about going against these “unders” earlier this season, and I could feel her energy change in regards to that specific coverage being deployed versus her.
First time seeing the broadcast perspective..
I am absolutely HERE for the ongoing battle of Sloot vs teams using unders on her
As I mentioned last week she takes exception to em, hunts em out in meaningful moments, & always has an appropriate response after she exploits em pic.twitter.com/iyk1vzvMEm
— Stephen PridGeon
Teams use it to try to keep her from the elbows and out of the paint, where she wrecks complete havoc. The Sky have become more detailed with the angling of their screens to give her daylight to attack opposing front court pieces that are in drop, or deep drop coverage, with her midrange pull up or with paint touches.
They have also used their rescreen action, which almost always forces the guard to navigate over on the second-side of the screen, which is what the Sky want as the guard then is forced to trail.
The Liberty, as they did in the regular season, did so in round one before also mixing in some late switches, but the deeper the series got the more Vandersloot’s feel grew and the frequency at which she generated and exploited advantages also grew.
Prediction
I have the Chicago Sky winning this one in four, not unlike last postseason’s clash between these two teams.
The Sky seemingly have Miller and companys number, and the upgrades to last seasons form via both Meesseman and Gardner only add extreme value to consider even more-so on this stage.
I also feel that the lack of spacing from the Sun offensively around their post and paint presences, combined with the lack of comfort/nuance/sustainability from their halfcourt offense will be adverse to them, specifically in this matchup as the Sky take on many forms, on both ends of the floor, and always have the “out execute you” spade in their back pocket as they have experience as a group winning in a multitude of ways in the waning moments.
These games will be hotly contested and testy even, but the all-encompassing play, versatility, and unpredictability of the Sky will be too much for the Sun to overthrow.
@StayTrueSdot3 
