NFL
By: Stephen PridGeon-Garner
It’s the reigning champion Chicago Sky squaring off with the New York Liberty in the first round of the 2022 WNBA Playoffs.
The headline names of course are Candace Parker and Sabrina Ionescu.
These two – two of the most versatile, dynamic, and skilled offensive talents to ever grace the hardwood – will garner most of the attention as the driving forces behind their respective teams.
The regular season series went 3-1 in favor of the Chicago Sky, however, excluding their early season match-up where the Sky won 83-50, the latter and most recent three games were decided on average by a mere 4.3 PPG.
New York Liberty
This team has endured a litany of injuries to what was presumed to be their main rotation, which is largely why they A.) Started the season 1-7, B.) Have a statistical profile that in many cases isn’t accurate or truly indicative of their true ranking across the league, and C.) Are a 7th seed.
Somewhat to their advantage, the Sky have yet to play this team fully healthy, which means there isn’t any film specific against them that they can gameplan off of.
The Liberty pack a punch when they find their flow. They have the names, in Ionescu, Howard, Johannès, Laney, to give themselves more than a puncher’s chance against any team in the W.
Offensively
99.0 offensive rating (ninth in the W)
They have a dynamic shot profile, one ranking second in regards to rim or three point frequency, and that matches as they compile the requisite talents to do so in an effective manner.
They’re first in attempts from deep per game (27.6), as well as in three-point rate (accounting for 37.6% of their general scoring), while converting at a 35.1% clip, ranking just outside of the top third, at fifth. So the return on investment in attempts from deep on volume has seen its positives, and has been warranted.
They compile eight players in their main rotation taking at or near two attempts or more a game. Of that group (Ionescu, Johannès, Whitcomb, Allen, *Laney, Howard, Dangerfield, Dolson), each is shooting 31% or better.
There is variance to that, but it’s a risk-reward proposition that suits them.
Independent of the shooting from deep, they are one of the more pick-and-roll heavy teams in the W.
They have dynamic handlers in Ionescu and Johannès who can make both any read and every pass in the profile to initiate advantage basketball, and can shoot off he dribble and with range. They couple all of that with an elite handle and elusivity.
They also have a steady-handed Crystal Dangerfield who, upon addition to the team, added instant value in enabling Ionescue to viably spend more on-court time off-ball, making their halfcourt offense more dynamic.
In tandem with those guards, they couple a trio of dynamic frontcourt pieces: Natasha Howard, Han Xu, and a (very) familiar Stefanie Dolson.
Each of those three has the ability to be a dynamic roller, popper, or playmake out of the short-roll either for themselves or as a connector, playing vital to their third ranked assists percentage, of 71.9%.
Pick-and-roll aside, each of these players serves as a hub for the Liberty in their halfcourt offense as well, oftentimes handling at the slot, dome, or elbows in initiating flow into their variance of dynamic pistol actions, springboarding their guards downhill with her and DHO actions, but also enabling said guards to tap into their off-ball dynamics as cutters.
They play an entertaining and free-flowing style of offense, one that is sometimes *too* free-flowing, teetering recklessness that renders them into some self sabotage via turnovers (15.5), especially of the live ball variety (7.8) subsequently putting their defense in compromising disadvantages.
Of note: They allow 11.7 fastbreak points per game, ranking 10th in the W and grading out as the worst of the playoff realm teams.
Under the coaching of Sandy Brondello, who will be looking for some get back against the team that put her Mercury squad out in the 2021 WNBA Finals a little over a year ago, they’ll be looking to reel that part of their offense in as they look to see what the potential of this group is this season.
They have avenues to generate advantages via their multiple pressure points. How they flow into doing so and how sustained that becomes for them I’d always the looming question, oftentimes seeing high variance this season.
Defense
102.0 defensive rating (seventh in the W)
Defensively, the Liberty are no pushovers, but they do struggle to sustain on that end of the floor. The large part of their issues stemming from a consistent inability to
They send teams to the line at the second highest rate, allowing 20.8 attempts to opponents per game there, as well as shooting ranking in the bottom half of the league in fouls per game with 18.2.
They have decent-to-good screen navigators and helpers, including the likes of Rebecca Allen (who’s been solid on Quigley in this matchup) and Betnijah Laney, along with their other guards never falling short in competing at the bare minimum.
However, on-ball, especially at the point of attack, they struggle to contain.
That, in-turn, renders them spending a lot of time in rotation, where a trickle-down effective in disorganization ensues.
Teams that have paint touch pressure points as well as an ability to pass and function off-script in that way can easily exploit just that.
For the Sky
This is a favorable matchup but will only remain that if they play Sky ball, especially defensively.
I’ve been on the soap box all season speaking to the Skys aggressive and versatile defense.
Candace Parker (as well as Emma Meesseman) will be at the forefront of a lot of what they do and how they deploy their defensive and scheme versatility to ward off the paint and force the ball out of Ionesches hands, sending the Liberty offense off script.
Stagnating both their flow and their ball movement will be a tall task, but they have the requisite defensive talents to do so.
What will be key is how active the defense is with the two-on schemes. Whether it’s a hedge or all out blitz, active hands will need to be as consistent as they’ve been all season here because she’s the most skilled guard in the W with passing out of doubles, and she’s compiled as many reps in doing so as anyone since her days in college.
Behind the point of the screen action will be key as, inevitably, she’s going to find her frontcourt pieces on the short-roll or to outright connect.
At times this season, the Skys rotations out of this scenario have been sharp with the backline frontcourt piece scramming players out the mismatches or even kicking out the big that was involved in the screen action.
Evident below, both here:
The way Candace operates in PnR defense is one of the most fun "games within the game" to watch in the W
She's the best, & it enables her to plays chess with ball handlers all game in disguising her coverages
Here, she terminates Bec Allens dribble flying up out of a short drop pic.twitter.com/4TrXzAmyFV
— Stephen PridGeon
(@StayTrueSDot3) July 26, 2022
As well as here:
There were a FEW instances from today but it was the defense here, ATO, that stood out most to me most
Notice Candace out in space redirecting, then also notice Azurá's backline activity in kicking Candace out two times
Candace then finishes the sequence with a corner pocket 3 https://t.co/3rF89Lu1pj pic.twitter.com/ulxlswvaCU
— Stephen PridGeon
At other times, it’s been a bit slow in connecting and rotations, rendering themselves vulnerable from the middle of the floor in a 4v3 disadvantage.
(See their final matchup vs Seattle, and at times vs Las Vegas all season)
They’ll need to keep their rotations behind the two-on scenarios sharp and have the hand activity on-ball and in passing lanes ever-present.
A steady diet of variety to keep Ionescu as well as Johannès guessing is also equally imperative to inducing turnover scenario’s within the flow of the game.
Defending Sabrina
As said earlier, she’s one of the most dynamic and elusive ball handlers in the game and that’s no secret.
In the regular season series, specifically the latter three matchups, she averaged 20.0 points per game on 47.0/33.3 shooting with 9.0 assists and 3.7 turnovers per
Having a Rebekah Gardner as well as Kahleah Copper to deploy for 40 minutes a night on her is a spade in coach James Wade’s pocket.
They’ve done stellar tandem defensive jobs on a multitude of the best scorers all season, and they’ll be called to action again here. Independent of any schemes, simply containing her in single coverage is important as any other tactic.
It’ll be more heavy denial in positioning up the line when she’s off-ball, as well as plenty of top-locking in her off-ball movement actions.
Also, a point of emphasis will be for those two to keep contact (to the legal limit) with her as they navigate the wide ranging variety of off-ball screens she’ll see.
Pin-downs, pin-ins, staggereds, doubles, exits, flare’s.. you name it, Brondello’s drawn it up and the Liberty frontcourt pieces understand how to feel her for touches.
The ability for Copper to do so initially, then hand the baton off to Gardner to take away the entire side of the floor Ionescu is on at times will need to be as relevant as any impact to properly set the tone their defense will aim to uphold.
She’s going to score, period. Making her work hard to get hers, then limiting her efficiency both as a scorer and passer from the point of attack or on the wing is what’ll enable the Sky to put their true stamp on this series.
If they can do so in a sustained manner, the benefits will overflow in terms of their defensive flow and transitioning into their flow for offense that oftentimes is second-to-one.
Other matchups to watch for:
Aside from the Ionescu assignment, containing Johannès, as she operates in a lot of the same manners as Ionescu, will be imperative.
I’m expecting more on-court time spent between Copper and Gardner, which’ll allow for both to take on the Liberty’s best guards as frequently as possible.
The likes of Quigley and Vandersloot on the Liberty “others” from the guard position will be important as they all function well in catch-and-shoots or driving closeouts.
Staying on time and out of rotation, in all that the Sky decide to do with their defensive scheme versatility, will be imperative. The more they can mitigate not having to scram out of mismatches after the initial kick-out switch from their frontcourt pieces is imperative.
They had issues with this team specifically, having their guards caught on Dolson, Howard, or Xu a few times in the last three games vs NYL, to which they quickly sniffed out for duck ins, deep posts, or lobs over the top for paint touches if not buckets on top of that.
The ball will be moved and done so with pace, how deterrent their activity is in creating moments and havoc will be the barometer for just how locked in they are.
The frontcourt matchups will prove vital too from the starters as well as with Stevens and Xu coming into the fold. It’ll be a ton of versatility in 5-out and 4-out 1-in sets where the pieces there will have their hands full, from both teams.
Also of note:
Vandersloot and Copper were driving forces post all star break, literally driving and generating paint touches at or near career best levels in terms of volume in the paint and at the rim (small sample size post all star break).
Thinking about what it does to a defense when it’s Vandersloot in the paint, bending the defense opens up a lot as she oftentimes drags two in pick-and-roll, or can find the generated advantage off of over-helping, will be key.
Also, looking at Copper, I’ve spoken at nauseum about her two way play, to which Coach Wade has always been sure to mention:
Yesterday I asked Coach Wade about Kahleah Copper's consistency & viability defensively:
“She’s the ultimate professional man. Defensively she's locked in, there's nobody really better… especially from that guard position."
"… she's the ultimate two-way player." pic.twitter.com/gD7PStdKzm
— Stephen PridGeon
Specifically on offense, she’s perfectly positioned oftentimes in that area second-side that’s at the top of the corner right where the break of the three-point line begins.
When she’s attacking either middle or baseline, operating as a ever-present pressure point in slashing, the ability for the other four players to play off of the attention she garners has been a lynchpin offensively.
She’s been finishing with touch and elusivity, and generating a ton of free throw attempts too (5.0 per since ASG – 7th).
That rim pressure and the subsequent spacing enabled when she has the ball enables plenty for them to stress the defense in a different manner.
Lastly, the play of Meesseman and Parker keeping pressure on their frontcourt pieces, as well as Stevens doing so with versatility off the bench, will be vital as their guards are sure to engage them forcing help off the dribble.
Play off of that in read and react whether they catch, flow into get or DHO action, or shoot, will need to be consistently efficient.
Prediction: Sky in 2
The Sky, though they didn’t head into the playoffs playing their best ball, are battle-tested, have the most unpredictable attack offensive due to the all-around skill of their roster, and couple some of the most offensive versatility with some of the most defensive versatility.
The x-factors for me will be Copper and Gardner in initial containment as well as off-ball activity pertaining to Ionescu, and generally. Then coupling their efforts on that end with play as slashers on the other end.
They’ve won pretty, won “ugly” (an oxymoron of sorts), and have done so either way, in a multitude of ways. They have the IT factor in terms of just figuring IT out and coming away victorious, regardless of what demands the IT of any given game presents them with.
That bodes extremely well in a series setting where the stakes are raised. Also, having three former F-MVPs as well as the best point guard in the WNBA at the controls is one helluva dynamic to pose to an opponent.
@StayTrueSdot3 
