NFL
By: Randall Slifer
Joe Brady was named the head coach of the Buffalo Bills this week. This was a bit of a surprise to the Buffalo Bills community, as all signs pointed to an outside hire. Terry Pegula said he needed a new voice at the head coaching spot. However, the offensive coordinator seems a little too close. Nevertheless, Joe Brady signed a five-year contract. Now, he is Buffalo’s head coach for the rest of Josh Allen’s prime.
Joe Brady helped Josh Allen add an MVP to his resume and led the Bills to high offensive metrics. There are plenty of questions surrounding Joe Brady’s hiring. Let’s try to answer some questions while the news is fresh.
Does the offense have a ceiling?
The big question with choosing Joe Brady is that there were glimpses of Brady looking predictable. He often uses minimal style plays throughout his offense. This is partially true, as at the beginning of last year, there were a ton of manufactured touches involving the short passing game and behind the line of scrimmage. Josh Allen’s average depth of target did plummet when under Joe Brady. Yet it helped Josh see the field more clearly and limit his turnovers.
The issue is that when you look at the top teams in the league, a vertical passing game is needed. Especially when you reach the postseason. Have we seen Joe Brady dial up consistent vertical passing games since he arrived in Buffalo? Very minimally, but there has been an issue with our pass-catching rooms since he has been the offensive coordinator.
The only time Joe Brady had a big-time wide receiver in the Bills locker room was a disgruntled Stefon Diggs. He was on his way out, though. Stefon Diggs was not reporting to camp in the summer. In addition, he was very laissez-faire in his attitude while having outbursts on the sideline.
Joe Brady in Carolina helped DJ Moore have back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Before that, he led the most dynamic offense at LSU. Joe Brady can make wide receivers work, but the issue may lie with roster construction. I have not seen major evidence that Joe Brady can make wide receivers work when the talent is below average.
Brady limits his playbook and cannot play design plays outside his box, forcing players to work on plays that do not fit his scheme. You can tell when Buffalo didn’t have any true separating wide receivers; he ran a lot of mesh to gain yards and get them open. That sounds great, but after 7 or 8 mesh concepts, defenses start to realize it and switch to zone coverage, and mesh concepts stop working.
I do have my optimism hat on as I type this, but Brandon Beane and Joe Brady are in lockstep on how the offense should look from a roster-construction standpoint. With Josh Allen getting older and his rushing ability falling year by year, Joe Brady can construct a wide receiver to let Josh operate in the pocket more, and give him easy buttons as he had with Cole Beasley early in his career. Add that with a vertical passing game with a big star acquisition, and now this offense is scoring 30 points per game, done the sexy way everyone loves: explosive plays.
Is Joe Brady going to look different than McDermott?
This is probably the biggest question that won’t be answered for a long time. A lot of people believe moving Joe Brady to the head coaching spot means status quo and not much change. There is some truth to that.
The expectations of success certainly have not changed. If McDermott was fired for his inept defense, then Joe Brady still can carry this team with an offense, right? There is some right and wrong to the situation.
It will take a while for Buffalo to figure out how strict and controlling McDermott was with the whole team. A lot of folks believe the lackluster style of offense was all Joe Brady and his scheme. Still, Sean McDermott spent countless press conferences talking about controlling the time of possession, running the ball, and protecting Josh Allen.
The offense will certainly be the first sign of the difference between Brady and McDermott. What is the roster is construction, what personnel he uses, and what Josh Allen’s depth statistics look like throughout the season.
The most important way Joe Brady will look far different than McDermott is in the defense and who he hires on the defensive side. McDermott’s defense was so rigid that there was an archetype and system for every position. McDermott’s defense did numbers in the regular season, until Buffalo couldn’t rush the passer in the postseason.
The first name to pop up for Defensive Coordinator is Jim Leonhard. Jim Leonhard is a player-turned-coach who played safety for the Buffalo Bills. He did well in the Big Ten as Wisconsin’s defensive coordinator and later served as the Denver Broncos’ defensive passing game coordinator/assistant head coach. This is a big clue on how they are going to change their defensive scheme.
Leonard has a diverse defensive menu, including coverage and the defensive line. Simulated Pressures and coverages will still be the name of the game, which Buffalo is very familiar with under McDermott. The Denver Broncos were top 3 in sacks this year while playing odd fronts.
McDermott consistently runs a 4-3 or 4-2-5 with his archetypes of 300-pound defensive tackles, leaving little to desire in the pass rush game. Jim Leonhard brings the ability to switch to a 3-4 or 3-3-5 defensive scheme, which can transition our defense nicely without losing many players. It can help up the defensive line production, while Leonard is a defensive back specialist. So, how will Joe Brady look different? A brand new defensive scheme away from a head coach who allowed 30 points per game in almost every playoff loss.
It is fair that this hire is nerve-wracking. This is the final coach of Josh Allen’s prime, and Buffalo needs a Super Bowl before he is out of the league. Buffalo Bill’s fans have put too much time and effort since the four Super Bowl losses, to see the greatest player to put on a Bill’s uniform not get one. I do believe this hire can work with a top defensive coordinator. With Joe Brady at the helm, I think the offense will look better than in 2024 and 2025, and now Buffalo has a chance to change the defense away from McDermott’s scheme.
Will Buffalo get it done by the end of the 2027 season? Brady and the Buffalo Bills will get it done by then. As always, Go Bills.
