NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The Buffalo Bills secured their first away playoff victory in 33 years last Sunday. Another Buffalo milestone checked off by Sean McDermott, Josh Allen, and the rest of the team. Josh Allen put on a different kind of cape last Sunday, or scrubs if you will, because he was surgical against Jacksonville. Josh Allen’s adjusted completion percentage was 88%, and he played turnover-free ball for all four quarters.
The Buffalo Bills will have to run the table on the road, away from Buffalo, NY, due to the Chargers’ loss to New England. If the Buffalo Bills want to get to the Super Bowl, they’re going to have to take each game singularly, not looking in the past or the future.
The Denver Broncos have the 1-seed, which means they have been resting and prepping since January 5th. The Bills, on the other hand, are on a short week playing from Sunday to Saturday, and injuries have been piling up. Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis tore their ACL’s against the Jaguars, and Buffalo will need to fill a safety position with Jordan Poyer week-to-week with a hamstring injury. Nevertheless, all you need to do is win the next game, and you are off to the AFC championship in back-to-back years.
Let’s take a look at how the Buffalo Bills need to adjust from Jacksonville and win in Denver:
Is Bo Nix prepared to wear the moniker of the 1-seed?
Bo Nix has had an up-and-down year, throwing for only 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He only has 7 games without a turnover and 4 games with 2+ turnovers. Bo Nix can play mistake-free ball for 7 games without putting the ball in danger, in terms of turnover-worthy throws or placing the ball on the turf. So, how does Buffalo make Saturday the 5th game with 2+ turnovers?
Sean McDermott has done a great job in disguising blitzes and coverages, and did a great job confusing Trevor Lawrence into throwing 2 interceptions. Bo Nix is similar to Trevor Lawrence, and you can confuse him into throwing picks even when he is kept clean and not pressured.
Bo Nix is a quarterback with flaws, and the biggest is his ability to throw intermediate passes. As you can see, 2/3rds of Bo Nix’s passes come from behind the line of scrimmage or from short passing areas. In passes with air yards from 10-19, Bo Nix is throwing at a 50% completion, and has thrown 6 interceptions to only 4 touchdowns. Denver will have a goal of playing mistake-free ball, and I bet they try to avoid intermediate throws to avoid a potential 7- to 10-point swing.
The Buffalo Bills do not play much man coverage, but zone is the best way to defend the Broncos. On all of Denver’s short passes, Buffalo will need to have a clean tackling game. Buffalo only had 3 missed tackles against Jacksonville, and that will need to repeat this Saturday. A lot of the zone beaters come from intermediate throws in the seam route, or the sidelines on sail routes and quick outs. Buffalo’s secondary has been one of the best in the league, and they can play the ball that they are comfortable with on Saturday.
Sean McDermott has used fire-zone blitzes throughout the back half of the year, and it has paid dividends against quarterbacks who struggle to identify pre-snap and post-snap defenses. One fire-zone McDermott loves running is to pull his edge defenders into coverage and send his linebackers on a blitz. This can bait Bo Nix into an interception, looking at a quick slant, only for Joey Bosa or Greg Rousseau to be sitting in that pocket waiting for the ball. He will also stack up cornerback and safety blitzes against Bo Nix, hopefully leaving him rattled in the 2nd half for Josh Allen to take over the game.
Buffalo’s Wide Receivers are banged up. Can they overcome it?
Buffalo’s wide receivers are a revolving door of 7-8 guys while they are trying to find the perfect combination for Josh Allen and the offense. The Buffalo Bills will need to rely on Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Mecole Hardman to take over the roles of Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers.
The Buffalo Bills did have a trick up their sleeve when it came to Curtis Samuel. Curtis Samuel has dealt with injuries and has been consistently sidelined. Once Gabe Davis was ready to play, they stashed him on the Injury Reserve and kept him prepared for any injuries that might arise during the playoffs. Turns out, this is exactly what happened, and now we have a healthy Curtis Samuel ready to enter the divisional round.
Against Denver, this shouldn’t be a heavy stat wide receiver game like it was against Jacksonville. Jacksonville primarily plays zone coverage, while Denver plays man coverage. Having a shaky wide receiver room only makes it more difficult to succeed on elite man coverage defenses. So, how does Buffalo solve that? The Buffalo Bills using the running game and the tight ends in the passing game.
James Cook had a gauntlet of a day against the number 1 rush defense in the league last week. They proved they were the top rush defense in the league, but Buffalo won in the air. Buffalo and James Cook will look to bounce back and play a playoff legacy game.
When taking Buffalo’s offensive line versus Denver’s defensive line, Buffalo has a 229-pound advantage. Now, that should not stand out as a pass-protection advantage, but as a rushing advantage. Denver’s weakest spots on their defensive line when it comes to defending the run are offenses rushing through the A gap, and on the right side of the offensive line. That is where Buffalo rushes at their best.
Spencer Brown and O’Cyrus Torrence have a 113-pound advantage on the right side, while they are the best run-blocking duo on Buffalo’s line. James Cook has an opportunity to have a field day in rushing the ball and receiving as well. This would take pressure off Josh and open up passing lanes when Denver needs to flood the box to stop the run. Denver only allows 18 points per game, but 21+ points is easily manageable if you can get 2 touchdowns on the ground.
Buffalo faces Denver at Empower Field at Mile High this Saturday at 4:30 EST/3:30 CST. Everyone wants to clamor about the air at that type of altitude, but remember, Josh Allen played at high elevation in Wyoming! Vegas opened the week with Buffalo favored by -1.5 points, but has since flipped to Denver being favored by -1. In actuality, Vegas has this as a toss-up, and the line is moving due to which side the money is flowing on.
The over/under is 46.5, which is far higher than what the defenses allow in total, but just under what the offenses score. Both teams will look to keep it close till the 4th quarter, because the Broncos have won 11 one-score wins this season, and Buffalo and the whole world believe Josh Allen can put Buffalo over the top in any 4th quarter game. This game will be close, but the Buffalo Bills can get it done this Saturday. As always, Go Bills.
