Brock's Pre-Season College Football Top 25

By: Brock Vierra

As we approach the dawn of a new college football season, it is time to engage in the endless, sometimes useless but always entertaining debate of ranking the top twenty-five FBS teams in the country. Putting aside the bias and blinders associated with conference alignment, I take an honest look at the upcoming season and the teams that should get an early push into the College Football Playoff.

Georgia. How could you not rank the back-to-back National Champs at number 1? After finally overcoming the hurdle that is Nick Saban, Kirby Smart cruised to another title in 2022 with a 63-7 drubbing of the TCU Horned Frogs. With another easy schedule in 2023 and the return of Brock Bowers, there realistically shouldn’t be a reason that Georgia shouldn’t be in the CFP. Georgia did lose massive star power including starting QB Stetson Bennett and DL Jalen Carter but lost even more talent after their first national championship and still dominated—the consensus number one.
Alabama. Nick Saban is coming for vengeance. After wasting the last year of the best quarterback Bama has had in the Nick Saban era, he’s getting back to basics with a strong run game and dominating defense. Bringing in Tommy Rees as OC does give me some concern but longtime defensive guru Kevin Steele joins Saban in reworking the defense to stop the spread passing attacks that gave Bama their two losses in 2022. With standout pass rusher, Dallas Turner and DB Kool-Aid McKinstry ready to become the next first-round defenders from Tuscaloosa, this defense is ready to roll. The combined point differential in their two losses was four so with the number one recruiting class in the country, expect another Alabama-Georgia matchup in the SECCG.
Michigan. Hosting the best running back duo in the nation, the Michigan Wolverines are ready to dominate their opponents again. Blake Corum looks even better despite his injury and Donovan Edwards made Corum’s absence seem small. J.J. McCarthy is ready to expand as a passer, establishing himself as a true duel-threat QB. Michigan returns three players to their award-winning offensive line, Mason Graham looks to establish himself even more as the anchor of the Wolverines’ defensive line while their DB room looks deep and dangerous. Once again, Michigan looks to win the Big 10 but a five-game stretch to end the season at Michigan State, Purdue, at Penn State, at Maryland before finishing at home against arch-rival Ohio State could derail their championship dreams. However, Jim Harbaugh won’t be out for any conference game so Ann Arbor should be rocking again.
Ohio State. Ryan Day is the victim of blinders and shadows. Everyone remembers Urban Meyer’s 7-0 record against Michigan, his three Big 10 championships, and his National Title. What people don’t remember or conveniently forget is his random losses to inferior opponents that always sunk the Buckeyes National Title hopes, losing 31-0 to Clemson in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl, losing 40-35 to Clemson in the 2014 Orange Bowl and the multiple off field issues associated with his tenure. Day runs a clean, transparent program. He has two Big 10 titles and three CFP appearances in four years. Ohio State brings back a powerful offense led by Marvin Harrison Jr, a defense anchored by a very talented defensive line and expect Denzel Burke to be a difference maker. OSU isn’t going anyway.
Tennessee. Grossly disrespected by the rest of the country, the Volunteers are back baby. Josh Heupel and his offense will continue to dominate under QB Joe Milton and WR Bru McCoy. The third best team in the SEC has an easy schedule before they play Bama in Tuscaloosa and an easy schedule after them outside of Georgia. There’s a major possibility that the Volunteers will be in the SECCG and Neyland rocking on Saturday nights is just what CFB needs. Expect Tennessee to be pressing the top four for a playoff spot.
USC. Having the best offensive mind in football as your head coach, a returning Heisman winner at QB and a top roster in college football should give USC the Pac-12 title in their final year as a member of the conference. What we don’t know is how the defense will hold up but from all accounts, the Trojans should be massively improved with new transfers. They have too much firepower, USC at 5.
LSU. There’s a lot of hype behind the Tigers and for good reason. Coming off of a bowl win and SEC West title, Brian Kelly has cemented himself in Baton Rouge. With QB Jayden Daniels and EDGE Harold Perkins coming back and an early matchup against Florida State gives them an opportunity to bank away a signature win early in the season. An easier schedule for the Tigers in 2023, they avoid Tennessee, Georgia and they play Texas A&M at home. The three SEC teams they lost to last year. If they beat the Seminoles, that would mean the only game for which they might be an underdog is at Alabama. An 11-1 record might be enough for the CFP but don’t be shocked if the Tigers once again reach the SECCG.
Florida State. The best FSU squad since the first year of the College Football Playoffs, the taste of success is back in the mouths of the Seminoles. A pre-season favorite for the ACC title, Florida State and Mike Norvell have ballers on both sides of the ball. However they do have a difficult schedule with a in-state neutral site game against LSU to open the season. They also have to travel to Clemson, Pitt and Florida so it’s not all sunshine in the sunshine state. The Seminoles did prove that they’re no longer an average team last year so an NY6 Bowl Game should be on the horizon but FSU needs something short of a miracle to make the CFP.
Penn State. Fresh off of a Rose Bowl win, James Franklin and Penn State are back. Outside of the COVID year, James Franklin has had a winning season every year that he’s been in Happy Valley. Drew Aller might be the best QB that Penn State has ever had, he’s supplemented by a 1-2 punch in running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Alen and Penn State always produces top TEs and WRs that come out of nowhere. They’re solid on defense with Manny Diaz coming back, the Nittany Lions kept opposing offenses under 22 points in ten different games last year. They do play at Ohio State and against Michigan, the two teams they lost to last year. They’re a little too young to compete for National Titles but do not sleep on them because a loss here and an injury there, Penn State might be in the CFP conversation.
Clemson. If an 11-3 season with an ACC title and an NY6 bowl appearance is the hallmark of a poor season, then you’ve built a dynasty. That’s what Dabo Swinney has done and Clemson is ready to compete. Expect big performances from Cade Klubnik and Will Shipley as they’re chess pieces in the dynamic Air Raid offense that Garrett Riley brings with him from National Runner-Up TCU. A stout defensive line will carry this underrated defense and an easy early non-conference schedule should have Clemson competing for the ACC. However overcoming Notre Dame and South Carolina will decide if the Tigers return to the CFP in 2023.
Notre Dame. The Marcus Freeman era is in full swing after a rocky start and ND fans are all in. An offensive change with new OC Gerad Parker and new QB Sam Hartman should see the Irish pass the ball more than in years past. Difficult matchups against USC, Clemson and Ohio State might be too much for the Fighting Irish to overcome in terms of the playoff but this is the year that Freeman lays down the foundation for the Irish to contend for National Titles again. For more in-depth analysis of Notre Dame in 2023, watch this week’s episode of The Hot Seat where I break down the pride of South Bend with Greg Rector and Nate Atkins.
Oregon. Dan Lanning heard the term growing pains and limited his to one game. After a blowout loss to Georgia, Oregon won 8 straight games including home wins against #12 BYU and #9 UCLA. They also beat the eventual Pac-12 champ #10 Utah. Their three losses in 2022 came to ranked opponents and if Bo Nix doesn’t get hurt, the Washington game goes the way of the Ducks. With a new year to implement his defense, the Ducks are a dark-horse CFP pick.
Washington. The Huskies are here. A favorable schedule has some predicting a return to the CFP by Washington and it makes sense. Two top WRs, a stud at QB in Michael Penix Jr and a massive home-field advantage should see them hit double-digit wins again. They play Oregon at home and USC on the road so getting one win should have Washington finish with an 11-1 record and a ticket to the Pac-12 title game. A potential proper exit before they venture to the Big 10.
Texas. Unfortunately Texas is once again ranked higher than they should be due to the star power they put on the field. Xavier Worthy, Jordan Whittington, Quinn Ewers and incoming freshman Anthony Hill Jr outline a roster that is good on paper but the play calling and late game performances of the Longhorns always seem to sink their lofty yearly expectations. No Bijan Robinson or Roschon Johnson means questions in terms of their RB room and this is a defense that is average at best. With games at Alabama, at TCU and against Kansas State, things don’t look promising but if Texas can escape their conference opponents, a Big 12 title win could send them into the playoff. Unlikely and I would be surprised if the rest of the Big 12 lets them leave for the SEC with a conference championship.
Ole Miss. We won’t know how good Ole Miss is until they settle on a quarterback but whomever Lane Kiffin chooses between Spencer Sanders and Jaxson Dart will have the best running back in the SEC if not the country helping him out in Quinshon Judkins. They acquired UTSA standout Zahkari Franklin in the portal and the hiring of former Alabama DC Pete Golding has stoked the flames on the rumor that Kiffin is gunning for the Crimson Tide job once Nick Saban retires. The team’s celling is 9-10 wins which is enough for Kiffen to take Ole Miss back to an NY6 Bowl Game but not enough for the Rebels to make the CFP.
Oklahoma. Norman and Brent Venables got a wake up call in 2022 and addressed it in recruiting. A Top 10 class should make the Sooners much more competitive in 2023 and ease their way into the SEC but a National Title is out of the question at this time. They have an easy schedule to start the season but once they play Texas, OU has to play teams with powerful passing attacks. The nice part is that outside of Texas who they play at the Cotton Bowl, OU either doesn’t play or has home games against the seven teams they lost to in 2022. With no scheduled meeting against Kansas State, their schedule is filled with teams that the Sooners have been successful against in recent years.
Utah. The Two-time Pac-12 defending champions are back and so is Cam Rising. Rising and the Utes continue to be disrespected despite having a veteran roster (14 returning starters) and one of the best and consistent coaching staffs in all of college football. Kyle Whittingham is back for his 19th season as Utah’s head coach, having spent over a quarter of a century at the program. He’s joined by OC Andy Ludwig who enters his 9th season overall in the role and DC Morgan Scalley who is in his 8th year in the position and has been at Utah in a variety of roles since 2001. I expect another positive season but with road games at Oregon State, at USC, at Washington and at Arizona, a three-peat is far from likely for the Utes.
Texas Tech. A sleeper favorite in the Big 12, Joey McGuire is making waves in Lubbock. An excellent recruiting class, four straight wins to end the season including blowing out Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl and an 8-5 record in 2022 which could’ve been improved on if Tech didn’t suffer so many injuries should have Red Raiders fans excited for a promising future. A somewhat difficult schedule lays ahead for them but if they can beat Oregon in week two, Texas Tech could be gearing themselves up for a CFP run. Remember Tyler Shough came from Oregon and must be chomping at the bit to get back at his old team in this modern version of the Air Raid offense. For more insight into the Texas Tech program, check out the College Football Forecast where Bill Carroll and I sit down with Albie Shore of the Tortillas and Takes Podcast.
Kansas State. Before the 2022 season, I predicted that the wildcats would win double-digit games and make it to the NY6. My prediction this year. Nine wins and the Outback Bowl. I love what Chris Klieman is doing but they lost too many players to be as good as they were last year. I expect Will Howard to become much more confident as a passer and Klieman to get a new job in the spring. However if they get past Missouri, don’t be shocked if they go on a run and win another conference championship.
Tulane. The Green Wave isn’t coming. They’re here. Tulane has a refurbished field, an 12-2 record in 2022 and the most underrated QB in the country in Michael Pratt. They upset USC in the Cotton Bowl and beat UCF by 17 points in the AAC Championship Game. They did lose Dorian Williams and Tyjae Spears but they do play their two hardest games (Ole Miss and UTSA) at home so keep an eye out. Expect Tulane to match what they did last year and for Willie Fritz to be on the lookout for a promotion.
Wisconsin. Don’t let a poor season distract from the massive improvements Wisconsin made in the offseason. Luke Fickell, Tanner Mordecai and Phil Longo are ready to let the ball fly inside Camp Randall. However Wisconsin is still a running team first and they have the second best 1-2 RB duo in the Big 10 in Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi (Sorry, not sorry Penn State). Outside of playing Ohio State at home, they have a cupcake schedule so the bare minimum for the Badgers is a a Big 10 West title.
UCLA. Dante Moore, Carson Steele and J. Michael Studivant might be the triple-headed monster that Bruins fans have been hoping for. UCLA’s performance since the COVID year has Westwood rocking and with an impending move to the Big 10, UCLA is a sleeper team if they can put it together. I do have some questions about their defense but Chip Kelly is starting to find his stride.
TCU. The National Runner-Up should be ranked higher, especially when you consider they beat four teams ranked higher then them in 2022. The Horned Frogs suffered too many losses in the offseason to be confident in them again. They sent eight players to the NFL including QB and Heisman finalist Max Duggan, RB Kendre Miller and WR Quentin Johnston. They also lost OC Garrett Riley to Clemson and even though Kendal Briles is a perfect replacement, it will take time to recover. They do have a relaxed and winnable schedule so lighting might strike twice but keep in mind that the last team to return to the National Championship Game after losing in it the year before was in 2018. It was Alabama after their loss to Deshaun Watson and Clemson. The good news for TCU fans is that Bama won that game so anything is possible.
Oregon State. Oregon State played 1 bad game in 2022. A blowout loss to Utah in Salt Lake is the only blemish they have. A 10-3 record in 2022 gave the Beavers their best season since Dennis Erickson was there and in their two other losses to USC and Washington, they lost by a combined six points. They have one of the best defenses in all of college football and with the addition of D.J. Uiagalelei, they might have a competitive offense. A conference title might be out of their reach and I expect them to regress a little bit but if there was any moment for Oregon State to go to the CFP, it’s this year. For my Pac-12 predictions, check out my latest article.
North Carolina. Drake Maye is a Top 2 QB in the country and for some, he’s not number two. Since Mack Brown returned to Chapel Hill, he has turned the Tar Heels into an NFL factory. The issue for North Carolina is that outside of Maye, there really isn’t a standout player outside of the projected future of Kent State transfer Devontez “Tez” Walker. The loss of Tony Grimes continues to cause concern for a DB room that was already subpar. Despite their early season successes, North Carolina fell victim to a late season meltdown in 2022. At one point, they were 9-1 and ranked #13 in the county. If North Carolina gets past South Carolina in their opener, they don’t really have an awfully tough game until they play at Clemson in November. Don’t be shocked if this is the year Brown, Maye and North Carolina finally win an ACC Championship Game, a game the Tar Heels are 0-2 in.