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Home Sports NFL

Bijan Robinson – Generational Talent or Overhyped?

by Greg Rector
January 20, 2023
in NFL
1
Bijan Robinson

Runningback Bijan Robinson celebates a long kick return during Texas's game against Louisiana at Darrell K. Royal Stadium on Sept. 4, 2021. AARON E. MARTINEZ / AMERICAN-STATESMAN

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By: Greg Rector

Bijan Robinson is going to be one of the most scrutinized players in the 2023 NFL Draft. The University of Texas running back is undoubtedly a tremendous talent. So much so that on more than one podcast and a few articles I have read many NFL teams already have him graded as their only true “ELITE” player in this draft class. one podcast put that number at 7 NFL teams who have Robinson as their only “ELITE” prospect. Don’t get your panties in a bunch all of you positional value folks. It simply means that when scouts do their work studying Robinson he scores very high in every category. That means he has the size and skills teams love along with his production on the field. “Trust the Tape” means putting his games and focusing on what he does on the field over his measurables. It means too though that those measurables are already at the high end.

The Production

2020

Bijan first played in the 2020 season. That year he had 86 carries for 703 yards an astounding 8.2 yards per carry. see why NFL scouts started drooling? His longest run was for 75 yards. He scored 4 TDs. Oh but we love guys like McCaffrey and Barkley that also help in the passing game right? Robinson had 15 receptions for 196 yards that’s 13.1 yards per catch with 2 TD catches. His longest reception was 35 yards. He did that damage in just nine games.
2021
Robinson was featured more in the Longhorns’ offense and in 10 games carried the ball 195 times for 1,127 yards an average of 5.8 yards per carry with 11 touchdown runs. Here’s where the NFL scouts really got excited, his receptions went up to 26 for 295 yards and an 11.3 per reception average with 4 TDs. The comparisons to Barkley were going full force by that point.
2022
This season Robinson was simply awesome. he played in all 12 games getting 258 carries for 1,580 yards a 6.1 per carry average. In the NFL a 4-yard average is the norm, Nick Chubb over 5 seasons is considered one of the best in the NFL, the reason being he is the first ever to average 5 yards per carry for 5  consecutive years in NFL history. Bijan was above that in all three seasons. Another stat that many now look at for running backs is broken tackles it hasn’t been around very long but Robinson shattered the number with 104 missed/broken tackles in 2022.

The Measurables

Robinson is 6′ tall and weighs around 215 to 220 lbs. Good size for the position. We won’t truly know the exact size unless Robinson goes to the NFL combine. Simple truth folks, colleges lie a lot when it comes to the exact size and other measurables. Robinson may forgo the draft combine as many players now do. Therefore his pro day will be the chance to get his height and weight. One thing that is happening as well with so many players is they announce for the draft and are then in a training regimen for the combine or pro days.

Don’t be shocked if he weighs less because that means he is trying to be as fast as possible for the drills like the 40-yard sprint. Speaking of that his reported time is 4.49 seconds again until everyone sees him do that don’t believe that number either. No one doubts his explosiveness so if he does the other drills like standing vertical jump and broad jump expect those numbers to be excellent along with his dash. We won’t see Robinson either at the showcase event of the process, he is not going to the Senior Bowl.

 

The Draft

Sorry, to all of you draft “experts” out there. Teams that won this past wild-card weekend all had over 100 yards rushing in their wins except the Bengals. The Niners’ offense begins and ends with the running game as do the Cowboys Eagles and many others. You can scream all you want that quarterbacks matter more or that corner and left tackles are more valuable all valid points. The potential to be this versatile of a contributor along with all the other factors teams look at means Bijan Robinson will be a first-round draft pick. Imagine you are the Cowboys for a moment. what if they decide to cut Ezekiel Elliott and also lose Tony Pollard in free agency?

It’s the first round and with the 26th pick, this type of talent is there for the taking? Go ahead and scream Zeke sucks, but remember he was also a two-time NFL rushing leader in 2016 and 2018 and if the league had not suspended him for 6 games his per-carry average would have projected he would have been ahead of Kareem Hunt in 2017 as well.

Someone will draft Bijan Robinson in round one, get over it. To the franchise that does so, good on you for ignoring what “experts” and the media believe. The NFL draft is for value and Robinson like any other player given that one ugly factor for every player, that being healthy could be in line to be a huge factor in a team’s success. Even if he is a first-round pick, the value of a dual-threat running back on a Super Bowl winner trumps traditional thinking.

 

As always find me on Twitter @GregsCowboys

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Tags: 2023 NFL DraftBijan RobinsonPositional valueRunning Backs
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Greg Rector

Greg Rector

Hello: I have been a Dallas Cowboys fan for 55 years and counting. I also write about the Toronto Raptors, Blue Jays, and other topics as well on occasion. I have also started a podcast called "Greg's Gripes," where I discuss current issues in sports, especially those that I disagree with. You can e-mail me rectorgreg08@gmail.com as well,

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