NFL
By Keith Richards
Following their loss to the Vancouver Whitecaps, we are now ten matches into the Matt Wells Era. Ten matches under their new gaffer, the consensus is that the Rapids are one of the most exciting teams to watch in MLS. Furthermore, it seems that Colorado has made big strides this season. However, how much better is Colorado now versus their first ten matches last season?
In some ways, it’s unfair to compare the Rapids at this point now to last season. At this point last season, Chris Armas was in his second season coaching the team. Wells, on the other hand, is just barely getting started. Yet, it feels like a good measuring stick in the end. If the Rapids, under Matt Wells, can show drastic improvement in just ten matches under the new coach, it’s a fantastic sign for the team.
So, let’s investigate it. Have the Colorado Rapids truly improved as much as we think they have? If they have, is it fool’s gold or has the magic returned to Dick’s Sporting Goods Park? We’ll answer those questions in the end!
The First Ten Matches – 2025 vs 2026
In the 2025 season, in Chris Armas’ second season, here’s where the Rapids stood after ten matches:
- 4-2-4 (2-1-2 at home, 2-1-2 on the road)
- 16 points
- 14 goals for, 14 goals against (even GD)
- 45.1% possession per match
- 16.43 xG
In 2026, this is where Colorado stands after ten:
- 4-5-1 (3-1-0 at home, 1-4-1 on the road)
- 13 points
- 22 goals for, 18 goals against (plus 4 CD)
- 55.9% possession per match
- 16.3 xG
In many ways, on paper, this 2026 team is very similar to the 2025 one. Both teams have four wins through ten games. However, the 2025 team had three more draws than this 2026 one. The 2025 Rapids were better on the road as well. Their two road wins are one better than the 2026 team. Consequently, with more draws, the 2025 team had 16 points after ten matches, compared to the 13 points the 2026 Rapids have.
The one stat that stands out is xG. In many respects, the 2025 Rapids were extremely boring to watch. Their 14 goals showed they were underperforming relative to their xG. However, it’s a different story with the 2026 Rapids. Their 21 goals show they are overperforming relative to their xG, which is 0.13 expected goals lower than in 2025 at this point in the season. One thing is certain. The Matt Wells Rapids are a more ball-dominant team.
If there’s one word we know that Matt Wells loves, it’s dominate. Wells’ system calls for complete domination of the pitch and of the opposition. In their first match against Seattle, many questioned if it was possible. In the first half, the Sounders were the dominant team. Immediately, everyone questioned the system on such a small sample size. However, it was much better against Portland and the LA Galaxy. You could see the vision. Against NYCFC, it was not so great again. Their match in Toronto was an anomaly. It’s difficult to use that for any measure of success.
However, Wells and Colorado then go on a four-match stretch where you feel they are the dominant team Matt wants them to be. Though they lost to Miami at Mile High, Colorado earned its first point ever at BMO against LAFC. In those two matches, against two great opponents, it’s arguably the most dominant the Rapids have been in three seasons.
Just look at the possession stats over that four-match stretch for Colorado:
- 51% possession – 2.72 xG
- 66% possession – Open Cup match
- 62% possession – 1.69 xG
- 73% possession – 0.23 xG
So, the question remains: Are the Rapids performing better through ten matches this season than last season? For me, the answer is yes.
While it must be said that the Vancouver Whitecaps did give Colorado a little taste of reality last night, the team is still in a great place. In their gauntlet of matches against Miami, LAFC, and Vancouver, they only came away with one point. However, it’s not crazy to say the Rapids should have had six points from that stretch. Through ten matches, the Rapids’ schedule has been harsh, especially with a new coach and several new players. Still, it feels like Colorado weathered the storm, and calmer seas are ahead.
Over the next five matches, the Rapids face Houston (Away), St. Louis (Home), Minnesota (Away), RSL (Away), and Dallas (Home). While there are some tough opponents there, it’s nothing in comparison to the three-match stretch they just completed. With 15 points possible, it’s not off base to say Colorado should aim for at least 11 points. Houston, Dallas, and St. Louis should be expected wins. Minnesota and Salt Lake will be tougher, but they are winnable matches. At the very least, two draws from those matches are not out of the question.
If there is one area the team has excelled the most under Wells, it’s the total roster contribution. In 10 matches, the Rapids have goal contributions from 14 players, 10 of whom scored. For the entire 2025 season, only 15 players contributed to goals. In 2025, it felt like the team was heavily dependent on Mihailovic and Navarro for chance creation and scoring. It does not feel that way so far in 2026.
Players like Wayne Frederick (five goal contributions (1G, 4A) and Dante Sealy (3A) have taken the pressure from Rafael Navarro. He doesn’t have to do it all now. While Paxten Aaronson did start slow, he’s starting to take off with five goal contributions of his own (3G,2A). Darren Yapi is off to another great start with five goal contributions as well (3G,2A). However, Matt Wells has done something I did not believe was possible. He’s made Rafael Navarro BETTER!
After a slow start, the Brazilian Striker has become one of the best strikers in MLS. Navarro’s 11 goal contributions (7G,4A) lead the MLS. He’s not going to be in many people’s MVP conversations, but he should be. We’re all familiar with his pressing prowess and what he can do in front of goal. In Wells Ball, though, we also see a lot of Rafa the distributor.
Matt Wells has Navarro drop back into the 10 spot a lot more often. Instead of waiting for the attack to come to him, he initiates the attack. While that has helped with his four assists, it also allows him to make late runs into the box. Combining that with his striker’s instinct has been deadly. When you throw on top of that the threats that exist on the wing with Yapi, Sealy, Minoungou, and Manyoma, Rafa Navarro has had more space to breathe this season. The numbers speak for themselves on how effective Navarro has been in the Matt Wells system.
Yes, the Colorado Rapids are a better team through ten matches than they were last season. The players have bought into the system and will continue to grow. Of course, they will still have matches like they had last night against Vancouver. Why? Because they’re not yet championship contenders. However, I don’t feel that they are far off. With a summer transfer window coming, the Colorado Rapids, led by Matt Wells, could be a team no one wants to face at the end of the season.
