NFL
By: Stephen Garner
The Atlanta Hawks are bound to finish with home-court advantage.
Just 2 months ago, however, this seemed rather unlikely as they were amidst friction involving their then coach, players were hit by the injury bug, and the team lacked the overall energy that gave any belief that they were capable of such upward mobility.
Amongst the likes of Phoenix and Memphis, the Atlanta Hawks entered the 2020-2021 season as one of the leagues budding young teams.
Franchise player, Trae Young, was coming off an impressive 2019-2020 all-star campaign where he averaged 29.3 PPG on 36% from deep with 9.3 assists per game.
They had added both complementary and supplementary pieces around him in Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari, Rajon Rondo (traded in exchange for Lou Williams), and Kris Dunn.
They also bolstered their coaching staff in adding Nate McMillan as an Assistant.
Sluggish Start
They would, however, come out the gates to an abysmal 14-20 start. They even entered the all-star break outside of the Play-In Tournament range, in 11th place.
There were issues in health and chemistry that certainly played a factor in their start, but the overall energy and connectivity was still lacking.
In that, the rumblings of a year ago would also resurface as Trae Young (and others’) lack of a relationship with Lloyd Pierce had seemingly run its course.
Though Pierce and McMillan had a pre-existing relationship, which was spun to be the driving force behind Atlanta’s signing the former Pacers coach, to the masses it seemed as if the hire was for McMillan to eventually supplant Pierce on the sideline.
That moment would come at the start of March.
A Spark through Change
Atlanta has dismissed Lloyd Pierce as coach, sources tell ESPN.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) March 1, 2021
From this exact moment, the Hawks have seemed like a brand new team.
Before March, the Hawks both scored and gave up 113.1 PPG. Since, with McMillan manning the sidelines, they’ve averaged 112.3 PPG while allowing 109.6.
The switch sparked an immediate 8-game winning streak, which helped garner McMillan March coach of the month honors, and would catapult them to a 22-10 record since he took over.
Better Health
They have enjoyed slightly more fortune in the health department, mainly from their prized off-season signing in Bogdanovic who was sidelined for 25 games with an avulsion fracture in his knee.
His return coincides with McMillan’s promotion, and, since then, has made a world of a difference as he’s averaging 17.2 PPG with a 47.1/43.5/89.3 shooting slash in the return. He’s also served as their lead guard in Trae Youngs minutes off the floor, as his combo-guard abilities in play initiating and playmaking, his most enticing dynamics outside of scoring, have unlocked a new dimension in this McMillan-led rendition of the Hawks.
Capela’s Impressive Season
Their most important piece, all season-long, has been Clint Capela. They’re nearly 10 points worse defensively when he rests, and he is an overall +11.2 when he is on the court.
Capela is leading the league on the glass at 14.4 RPG and is 4th in blocks at 2.1 a night.
His versatility defensively allows for him to make up for their shortcomings out in space with his activity in rim protection. They don’t have to deploy drop coverage, conceding midrange pull-ups to the offense, much with him as he’s moving very well in switch scenarios.
He also remains 1A or 1B in the NBA in rum-running from the center position. At least 2-3 times a game you see him outrunning his matchup down the floor. That scenario alone leads to either uncontested points at the rim for him or his gravity opening up the floor for someone else to score.
Speaking of Capela on the offensive end, the Hawks have run a seemingly more pick and roll-oriented offense since McMillan took over.
This taps more into both the full dynamic of himself, Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and now Lou Williams and has their offense playing more consistent ball.
More Help on the Way?
Kris Dunn made his Hawks debut 3 games ago in a loss at Detroit. As he integrated himself, expect for their defense to take a potential big step forward. He’s just a season removed from an All-NBA worthy showing defensively and has a gritty approach that is a needed contrast to how Atlanta has been this season. He was also the runner-up in steals per game last season and led the league in steal frequency.
Cam Reddish has been out since February 21st with an Achilles injury. Though they’ve fared well in his absence, they’ll need the former Duke Blue Devil’s size, activity, and ability to defend come playoffs when the games slow down. They’re said to be exercising precaution with their 2019 pick at number 10, as he’s working his way back to returning soon.
De’Andre Hunter has been out since the beginning of February as he’s nursed a meniscus injury. Though the Hawks decision to not have him undergo surgery was debated, his return is now imminent as he works himself back into condition.
Overall
The Hawks have had delayed starts from a few different players in the seasons, but it seems as if they’ll have a full roster to deploy in the not too distant future.
On the season they’re 9th in offense, and 19th defensively. They crowd the 3-point line well collectively as they’re 3rd in 3P% allowed (35.1%).
As it stands they’re 5th in the East, and have one of the 10 easiest schedules remaining according to Tankathon, with a game vs Phoenix tonight, @ Indiana, vs Washington twice, vs Orlando, and vs Houston left on the docket.
Trae is healthy and producing, in his age-22 season, similarly to that of last season, at 25.5 PPG on 43.3/35.6/87.9, and 9.4 APG.
John Collins has seen a drop-off in production but is still playing well, averaging 17.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG, and 1 BPG.
Danilo Gallinari has been the leading veteran presence and is averaging 13.5 PPG on 41.6% from 3.
Lou Williams hasn’t had much of an impact in his return, though his best could be ahead as the playoffs loom and this team will need his presence and play, not unlike Gallinari.
Prediction
The Hawks will finish with a top 4 record in the East, both ducking the Play-In Tournament and garnering home-court advantage in their first-round series.
They certainly have the potential to win a first-round matchup depending on the opponent, however, they won’t make it much further than the second round.
The fun has returned to one of the best basketball environments in the NBA, and after a disappointing start, the Hawks will finish the season on par with expectations and take a great step toward true ascension.
*All stats are accurate entering play on 5.5.21 and come directly from basketball-reference or cleaningtheglass unless stated otherwise*
