NFL
By: Stephen Garner
Aces vs Mercury ⭐️
A new champion will be crowned as the Phoenix Mercury, who garnered wins over the New York Liberty and defending champion Seattle Storm, now have a crack at the high-powered Las Vegas Aces.
The Aces won this season series 2-1, however, it’s of note that most of the starters did not play much when these two heavyweights faced off after the regular season.
It’s also noteworthy to mention that the Mercury were without the services of Diana Taurasi for any of 2021’s prior outings.
There likely won’t be much to draw from their direct matchups of the regular season, making the “feeling out process” of these two early in the series to be a major entity to follow.
For the Mercury:
Coming back from the Olympic break, I wrote about the Mercury being my “team under the most pressure.”
Though fourth in the west at the time, they were 9-10 and playing very inconsistent ball.
DT had only played in seven games before the league-wide hiatus and they just weren’t seeming like the team they were expected to be: which was a contender.
They’d promptly respond and run off 10 straight wins, taking full advantage of the “soft spot” in their schedule to establish their brand of basketball.
In said stretch, Skylar Diggins-Smith piggybacked off of the momentum she picked up from her Gold medal Olympic run.
This' her first player of the week honor of 2021. As the Mercury are now on a timely 6 game win-streak, she's quietly crept into the top 5 for scoring at 19.2 PPG. She's also right behind teammate Brittney Griner in offensive winshares, placing 2nd with 3.4
— Stephen PridGeon ☯️🏁 (@StayTrueSDot3) August 30, 2021
She spearheaded what turned into a very strong finish to the season in Phoenix as she scored 17+ points in seven of their 13 games after the Olympics. She also added nine games at 5+ assists, and grab a steal in seven as well.
She emerged as an MVP candidate amidst this torrid pace.
Brittney Griner would also get it going as she showed off her full array of skills with solid consistency as she finished the season with a dominant 20.5 PPG (2nd), career-high 9.5 RPG (6th), and had a career-high eFG% of 58.0.
She’d also lead the league in BPG, PER, offensive win shares, and was the only other player to receive an MVP vote that wasn’t named Jonquel Jones.
She’s been dominant on both sides of the ball, and a dynamic that took on an even more consistent showing upon returning from the Olympics was her great patience and growth as a decision-maker with the many double-teams thrown her way on a near possession basis.
BG is such a consistent playmaker from the post. She makes the correct pass almost every time she's 2-teamed down there https://t.co/7m44cVKtz0
— Stephen PridGeon ☯️🏁 (@StayTrueSDot3) September 1, 2021
She’s gotten so great at accepting and assessing the defense past the defenders in her face, that her post touches have essentially triggered the Mercury into secondary offensive sets where, depending on whose defender leaves for the double, each Mercury player has an instinctive spot on the court they float to.
Their offense has a rhythm to it off of her post-touch gravity, regardless of the lineup they have on the floor, and they typically avoid stagnation while punishing the defense.
The Aces, though, have a player who in stature can match Griner so the doubles will likely come less frequently in Coach Laimbeer’s trust in his all-star Cambage to defend Griner one-on-one in the post.
Kia Nurse, who averaged just 9.5 PPG this season returned from the Olympics with a different energy.
She had made three in 10 of their 13 post-Olympic matchups and, even more, had six games where she made 2+ from deep, including two with three made threes point field goals and three with three of that same nature.
One of their x-factors will be the elephant in the room, being just how healthy and capable Taurasi will be.
She labored through 32 logged minutes in their overtime victory over the Storm, seen noticeably grimacing though she did show up in overtime with six timely points.
They’ll need Taurasi’s presence as she is still their best playmaker and her presence alone has the calming effect needed to function in these high stakes/high leverage moments.
The Mercury played at the second-slowest pace this season, a contrast to their opponent’s league-best pace. For them to give themselves their best chance in what’s sure to be a long series, they’ll need to sustain success on the defensive end.
They’ll also need to take advantage of their rhythm and flow having played two games in a four-day span while the Aces have been home with their two-round bye.
Aside from just how compromised Taurasi’s left ankle is, their x-factor will be a defense; especially in the frontcourt.
It’s no secret what the all-world frontcourt pairing the Aces employ is capable of.
Griner (all defensive 2nd team) and Turner (all defensive 1st team), one of the league’s best defensive frontcourt tandems, will need to have their best showing yet.
They’ll be challenged like never before seeing that the Aces have two of a kind dominant post scorers, versus the typical singular post player most teams have.
In their 752 minutes logged together, teams shot just 39.3% against the Turner-Griner tandem on the season.
Add to that the underrated defensive efforts of Diggins-Smith and Nurse, and you piece together the picture for the Mercury.
Their offense will come, but they’ll need to lock in defensively, especially when combating the Aces second unit.
For the Aces:
After coming up short in the Finals last season, in a series that wasn’t even close after their semi-finals comeback, it was without question that the Aces would be back with a vengeance.
They retooled adding all-world point guard Chelsea Gray, then got the likes of Liz Cambage (who sat for Covid related issues last season) and presumptive sixth woman of the year Kelsey Plum (who was out due to a torn Achilles).
That threesome alone added to any team coming off a Finals appearance is a headache for any opposing team.
I wrote about how dominant they proved to be a post-Olympic break.
It’s well-known how ridiculously stacked their starting lineup is, sporting Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, Riquna Williams, A’ja Wilson, and Liz Cambage.
Their frontcourt pairing alone is daunting enough to win games alone, especially with Wilson following an MVP campaign with another that was as deserving as anyone on this side of Jonquel Jones.
A'ja, Jonquel, BG, Stewie, Skylar.. crazy ppl really don't have the residing MVP in the top 5 lol https://t.co/jDMyfpwkOz
— Stephen PridGeon ☯️🏁 (@StayTrueSDot3) September 2, 2021
Where they truly take games over, though, is when the likes of Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby log minutes.
Two starting caliber talents spending any portion of the game against second units while their starters are staggered with them in the rotation is a lineup that most teams simply just cannot keep up with.
In Plum, they see their second-leading scorer who comes in and up’s their already high tempo another notch.
22pt game off the bench for Kelsey. Sixth Woman of the yr so far imo
— Stephen PridGeon ☯️🏁 (@StayTrueSDot3) August 18, 2021
She’s been a menace all season long, and this level of play garnered her second place in the Most Improved category.
Not to be discouraged from league recognition, her sixth woman of the year should arrive any day now.
Her timely scoring onslaughts put this team over the top on most nights, and she does so in a hurry.
https://twitter.com/staytruesdot3/status/1437522622703710208?s=21
She is truly one of a kind and one of Phoenix’s guards will have to take on the task of guarding her after the pressure the Gray-Young tandem already applies.
Plum closes games with Gray as well, so there is no break when it comes to guarding these Aces.
Hamby on the other hand, the team’s Swiss army knife and (as I write this) the resident owner of back-to-back top reserve honors, had herself an all-defensive team caliber season.
Her efforts in spelling either Wilson or Cambage supplement this team greatly and allow for their dominant frontcourt to play freely.
The x-factor for the Aces will be controlling pace at a sustainable level. At times they can have ups and downs offensively and against a fellow veteran team, leaving the door open for them to take advantage often proves to be detrimental.
This proves true even more so when the Aces go on their quick-hitting 8-0 or 10-0 runs and increase a lead. They can’t let their feet off the gas with the Mercury because they have no quit and can go on game-altering runs as well, especially late in contests.
Should they put a stranglehold on the pace of games early, and not relinquish that position, it’ll be hard-pressed for the Mercury to come away with this series. They’re simply outnumbered in high-caliber capable talents when going player for player, even more so considering Taurasi’s looming injury.
Prediction:
The Mercury certainly have more than a puncher’s chance in this matchup in my estimation. It will, however, take near-flawless execution from them from a tactical standpoint to offset the waves that the Aces hit their opposition with. If recent memory serves as an indication of the frequency the Mercury are humming at, with close games played vs the Liberty and Storm, I just don’t think they’ll have enough juice late in this series to overcome the Aces and their spirited efforts. Should the Taurasi we all love resurface, their chances would significantly increase. But as it stands…
Aces in four
*All stats and information used come directly from basketball-reference.com or WNBA.com/stats unless stated otherwise and are accurate entering play on 9.28.21*
