NFL
By Keith Richards
The wait is almost over! The MLS Playoffs don’t begin until November 18th, but this Saturday is Decision Day. In the Eastern Conference, the slate is complete, and all nine spots are filled. That is not the case in the Western Conference. Seeds seven, eight, and nine are all up for grabs. With only three spots remaining, six teams are fighting for them.
The LA Galaxy, Portland Timbers, Colorado Rapids, Seattle Sounders, Real Salt Lake, and Minnesota Loons all have scenarios to reach the 2026 MLS Playoffs. However, only half of those teams can get in. So today, we’ll look at each team’s path to the playoffs. We’ll start with 11th-place Minnesota and finish with the Colorado Rapids. Let’s dig in!
Minnesota Loons – 11th Place
The Minnesota Loons have the toughest path to the playoffs. In 12th place, Minnesota has 41 points with a record of 10W-12L-11T and a goal differential of -4. So, yes, their work is cut out. To reach the playoffs, they need to win AND Colorado, Portland, LA Galaxy, and Salt Lake to lose. They can jump Seattle if the Sounders draw and the Loons score at least two goals. By far, the toughest path to get in, and they play San Jose at home.
Real Salt Lake – 11th Place
RSL’s path to the playoffs isn’t as complicated, but it isn’t easy either. In 11th place, Salt Lake has 42 points with a record of 12-15-6 and a goal differential of 0. Of all the teams fighting for the MLS Playoffs, they have the most losses but the best GD. To reach the playoffs, their best shot is a win, with Colorado, Seattle, and Portland losing. They play the Galaxy at home.
If they beat LA and everyone else loses, they jump into seventh. If they draw and everyone else loses, they still get seventh based on tiebreakers. Portland, Colorado, and Seattle draw; RSL is out.
Seattle Sounders – 10th Place
Seattle’s season has been up and down, filled with injuries. However, they’re still in position to make the playoffs. In 10th place, the Sounders have 43 points with a record of 11-12-10 and a goal differential of -3. Seattle faces LAFC, who are coming off an embarrassing loss but have clinched their playoff spot. So, they’ll likely rest players. They could also go full throttle to end the season on a good note. Who knows?
As with all the teams in question, Seattle winning is their best bet. If they win and everyone else loses or draws, they can jump to seventh. Win and Colorado and Portland win? They’re out on the total wins tiebreaker. If they draw and Colorado and Portland draw, they’re out based on lower goal difference and goals for.
Portland Timbers – 8th place
The Portland Timbers are arguably in the best position of the six teams. In 8th place, Portland has 43 points, a 12-14-7 record, and a goal differential of -1. What sets them apart is that they’re tied for the most wins and have the best goals for, with 60. If everyone below them draws, they have the best tiebreakers (wins, GD, and GF).
If Salt Lake draws, even if the Timbers lose and everyone else loses, they still hold the better tiebreakers over Salt Lake (barring a ridiculous goal fest between RSL and the LA Galaxy). Portland faces Austin FC on Decision Day. By far, it is the easiest opponent of those fighting for playoff position.
LA Galaxy – 7th place
The LA Galaxy started the season without Riqui Puig. They end the season without Riqui Puig AND Gabriel Pec. However, they’re still above the play-in. In 7th place, the Galaxy have 44 points with a record of 11-11-11 and a goal differential of -6. The top two tiebreakers are wins and GD. That’s not good for LA. They need to win.
If they draw and Portland, Colorado, and Seattle win, they’re out. RSL can beat them and knock them out if Portland, Colorado, and Seattle draw. Minnesota is the least likely team to bump them. So, again, for the Galaxy, it’s simple: Win, and you’re in.
Colorado Rapids – 9th place
Finally, we’ve come to the Colorado Rapids. A win against Chicago this past Saturday would have put Colorado semi-comfortably in 7th place at 46 points. That did not happen. They lost by two goals. Those two goals matter because they dropped to 9th behind Portland. In 9th place, the Rapids have 43 points, a 12-14-7 record, and a goal differential of -1.
Why do those two goals matter? If they allowed one less goal, they’d be in 8th. It may seem like just semantics, but GD is the second-best tiebreaker. Portland has the same record, but they have better GF, which is something the Rapids cannot match. However, GF is the third-best tiebreaker. So, if the Rapids GD were 0, they’d be higher than Portland. Every little thing matters.
If Colorado wins and everyone else loses or draws, they’re in and above the play-in. With a draw, the Rapids would need one of the following:
- A draw between the LA Galaxy and RSL
- With the result above, a loss by Portland
- A Seattle draw
If the Rapids lose, they will need Seattle, Salt Lake, AND Minnesota to lose all to remain above the line. The Rapids would still make the playoffs with a win and RSL, Seattle, and Portland win. In that case, they’d remain in 9th. However, if Seattle won by three or more goals than Colorado, they would knock Colorado out.
I’m sure there is a scenario or two that I’m forgetting, but that’s the gist of it. It will certainly be a wild Decision Day. When all is said and done, we will preview the MLS Playoffs before the play-in matches on November 18th! Until then, enjoy the Decision Day matches!
