NFL
By: Courtney Walsh
Well, somebody has got to get a Big Ten win Saturday. As 0-3 Penn State visits 0-2 Michigan on CBS. The loser dives deeper into a lost season. NBS Media boss Joe Cardoso and I agree on one thing: both teams need this win BADLY. Where we see things differently is who wins. Just a reminder: this is the same man who, in his last preview, had Michigan beating Minnesota 27-17. I’m just saying; take that how you want.
The Turnover Gap
A stat PSU fans can hang a hat on: Penn State ranks 15th nationally at +5 in turnover margin, while the boys in blue rank 116th at -4. Bryce Underwood threw two picks against Minnesota and threw for 101 yards on 10-for-21 passing. A defense that takes the ball away makes things even in my opinion, and Penn State ranks 3rd in the Big Ten in turnover margin. The Lions don’t have to be great. They just have to be the ones who don’t hand the ball back.
Michigan’s Offense is Stuck in Neutral
Michigan gets about 315 yards per game, putting them at 120th in FBS, and they rank low in red zone offense. Add in the penalty yards vs. the Penn State team that is 19th in that category, and you’ve got a Wolverine team that can’t get out of its own way. Discipline travels well even in the Big House.
Make Underwood Throw
Penn State is second in the Big Ten in passing defense, with our boy Audavion Collins second in the nation with 8 pass breakups. This Wolverine team is heavy on the QB runs, so the Lions have to stay disciplined with their eyes and gaps. If Underwood can’t connect downfield, they will try and grind it out with long drives, which is where the turnovers and penalties show up.
Yes, the Run Defense Is a Problem
Why would I lie? Penn State’s defensive line hasn’t created much havoc on opposing QB’s, and opponents have found easy running lanes. Linebacker Alex Tatsch is out for the season (sigh), which means our already thin linebacker group is a bit shaky. Michigan leads the Big Ten in total defense, so points are at a premium. My formula would be win field position, finish drives, and don’t give Michigan short fields. This is fall Big Ten ball, sunny and dry, with a high of 52 degrees. Make it ugly and physical.
Why It Happens
History says no. Yes, Michigan leads the series 17-10 and has won nine of the last 11 meetings at Michigan Stadium. But this is the first year in coach Matt Campbell, with nothing to lose, going against a team that hasn’t clicked either. Penn State’s offense has largely struggled in Big Ten play but has shown improvement. Michigan is a favorite in Vegas, and an underdog that plays loose and takes care of the football can make a Big House crowd very nervous by the 3rd quarter.
The Pick
Turnovers will decide it; the defense bends without breaking, and Penn State finally gets its first Big Ten Win of the Campbell era.
