NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The Arkansas Razorbacks are 2-2 heading into their SEC matchups for the rest of the season. Their first matchup is against Texas A&M. Texas A&M is also 2-2, having lost to Kentucky and LSU in their last two weeks. Can Arkansas pull an upset against a talented team in a slump?
If the Arkansas Razorbacks want to pull off an upset against one of their rivals, they will need to focus on two important words: Discipline and Aggression. The rest of the schedule is a gauntlet. There is no time left to figure it out. The Arkansas Razorbacks need to put the ball down and get ready to play. Let’s talk about how those two words can give Arkansas a chance at going 3-2 in their first 5 games:
Discipline
The Arkansas Razorbacks have been improving as a defense, and the system looks better week by week. The defensive line has come into its own, and defensive coordinator Ron Roberts is getting versatile in his defensive line stunts and blitzes. In their first two weeks, the Arkansas Razorbacks only accumulated 14 pressures, 1 sack, and 2 QB hits. In the last two weeks, they have amassed 21 pressures, 6 sacks, and 3 QB hits.
Texas A&M’s quarterback is erratic, to say the least. He throws more turnover-worthy balls than big-time throws (4.1% vs 3.5%), and he does not handle pressure well. Here are some stats this year for when he is pressured:
When blitzed: 17/38 (45%), 161 yards, 1 INT
When under pressure: 7/24 (29%), 107 yards, 1 INT
If Marcel Reed cannot find a gap to run when he becomes pressured, he panics. This is where discipline comes in. Ron Roberts will not need to blitz heavily against Texas A&M. Marcel Reed’s most dangerous aspect of his game is his rushing ability (169 rushing yards and 1 TD on the season). In week 2, Arkansas gave up 78 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns to Utah’s rushing attack. In week 3 vs. Georgia, Gunnar Stockton rushed for 120 yards and 4 critical 1st downs to keep drives going. Keeping the pocket contained, without giving Marcel Reed a lane to run, will push him into distress and make bad decisions.
Another important element of staying disciplined is always accounting for Mario Craver. The 5’9, 180 lb speed demon plays backyard football in a structured game. It is impressive what he can do with the ball in his hands. 63% of Craver’s targets come from behind the line of scrimmage or in the short passing area. He has 138 receiving yards in that area and a whopping 7.4 yards after the catch. Arkansas’ defense will need to account for Craver at all times and tackle well. Both his touchdowns have come from deeper shots, so they will also need to put a safety over the top for him. Mario Craver can make Marcel Reed’s job easy if the Arkansas Razorbacks let them do it.
Aggression
College Football is officially 4 (5) weeks into the season. The “figuring it out” and “coming together as a team” time is over. The Arkansas Razorbacks need to extend their leash on some guys and just let it rip. Guys like Quincy Rhodes, Charlie Collins, and Khmori House want to get into the backfield to disrupt Marcel Reed. Defensive coordinator Ron Roberts should not be blitz-happy this game. Marcel Reed makes mistakes when the pocket is clean (3 of his 4 interceptions came from a clean pocket), but getting him uncomfortable is important. I would like to see Roberts overload on stunts constantly throughout the first half.
David Oke moves so well laterally that he is a defensive line stunt dream. Quincy Rhodes has the strength and power to be anywhere on the line, and the outside guys, Charlie Collins and Steven Soles, have the juice to get to the quarterback. I would throw the stunt book at the Texas A&M offensive line this Saturday.
Getting the offensive line into a stunt mindset can set up the Arkansas defensive line for the 2nd half. Expecting stunts in the 2nd half can let Roberts send simulated blitzes and creepers, as well as a traditional pass rush. Roberts can make interior offensive line anchors shaky by expecting a stunt, then bull-rushing into the quarterback. If Roberts can create chaos at the snap, the defense can take over this game.
Offensively, the leash needs to be extended much further. I believe KJ Jackson gained a ton of confidence against Tulsa. He threw for over 300 yards and scored 2 rushing touchdowns. The play calling and decision-making are what need to be cleaned up.
KJ Jackson had his best throw of the year in the first drive against Tulsa. He made a 2nd-level throw in traffic and placed it perfectly. After that, it took until the 3rd quarter for another deep ball. I personally counted 5 plays where KJ Jackson could have delivered the ball to the deeper receiver, only to second-guess and take the check down (unsuccessfully). 60% of his throws are behind the line of scrimmage or in the short area, while he has only thrown 16 balls of 20+ air yards or more. Ryan Silverfield needs to give KJ Jackson the confidence and green light to push the ball downfield more.
At the end of the 1st half vs. Tulsa, Arkansas led 16-0. This was mainly because Tulsa held Arkansas to only 1 touchdown and 3 field goals when in the red zone in that half. When the Arkansas Razorbacks were inside Tulsa’s 10-yard line, Ryan Silverfield ran 7 and threw 3. No pass went into the end zone during those drives. On the first drive, Arkansas got inside the 10-yard line and ran 3 plays, then kicked a field goal.
Ryan Silverfield needs to walk a fine line between avoiding turnovers and staying aggressive. This team needs the aggression, even if it leads to field goals instead of touchdowns. Chris Marshall is showing he is a WR1 in the SEC, and he showed his ability to catch balls in traffic and high-point the ball. Antonio Jordan is 6’6 “, 228 lb. In the r6’6z”ne, give these guys chances to make plays and create 7 points instead of 3.
The Arkansas Razorbacks take on Texas A&M at Kyle Field this Saturday at 7:00 EST/ 6:00 CST. The weather isn’t shaping up to be nice, as it looks like it may be steady rain throughout the game. Vegas has favored Texas A&M by over 2 touchdowns, but that seems excessive to me. Do I think the Arkansas Razorbacks have a chance to win? Absolutely, but it’s a tough ask. Do I think the Arkansas Razorbacks can cover +14.5? I think that is very plausible. Unless I am drinking the Arkansas vs. Tulsa juice and I wake up on Sunday feeling as I did after the Utah game. As always, go Razorbacks.
