NFL
By Keith Richards
Group D of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is one of the most interesting groups. The host nation, the United States, has faced all its group opponents within the last year. Türkiye, which might be the best team in the group, may have the mental advantage over the Yankees. However, they had a much tougher job qualifying. All teams in the group rank within the top 40 of the FIFA rankings. It will not be an easy group.
Of the three teams in Group D, the United States has the slight edge in experience. In addition, they have a slight advantage in overall success:
- United States – 10 appearances, six times reaching at least the Round of 16
- Australia – Six appearances, twice in the Round of 16
- Türkiye – Two appearances, third place in 2002
- Paraguay – Seven appearances, quarterfinals in 2010
Once again, we’ll review each team before deciding on the group winner.
United States – 16th in FIFA Rankings
The Red, White, and Blue are the highest-ranked team in Group D, but they come in with a little bit of turmoil. Though he says he’s committed to the USMNT at the World Cup, Poch recently met with AC Milan about their managerial opening. That’s not even getting into what’s going on within the lines of the pitch. Mauricio’s roster for the World Cup is defender-heavy with what many people consider to have a couple of holes. In addition, the team did not look great in their last two friendlies against better competition.
Still, the United States has become one of the powerhouses of CONCACAF. They have won continental CONCACAF titles (Seven Gold Cups and CONCACAF Nations League titles). Where they have yet to break onto the scene is the Copa America against stiffer competition in the Americas. Their best finish at the Copa is fourth, which they did twice (1995 and 2016). At the World Cup, though, they’re the most successful team in the group.
In their ten World Cup appearances, the USMNT has reached at least the Round of 16 six times. Their best finish was at the first FIFA World Cup in 1930, where they finished third. More recently, their best finish was in 2002. The Yankees reached the quarterfinals that year. As mentioned earlier, the United States has faced all three teams in Group D in the last year. They had 2-1 victories against Australia and Paraguay. However, Türkiye defeated them last June. Their chances of winning the group are strong. It will all depend on the health of certain players and whether a couple of others can play better than their current club forms.
Australia – 27th in FIFA Rankings
The Socceroos will not be an easy out in Group D. I am being 1,000% biased when I say Australia has some great young talent in their camp. Tony Popovic, if you’re reading, not selecting Lucas Herrington for the World Cup roster would be a great injustice. All jokes aside, the Socceroos have a healthy mix of youth and veteran leadership. They’ve won seven of their last 10 matches together since 2025, including a win over Canada.
The Socceroos have won five continental championships (one AFC Asian Cup and four OFC Nations Cups). However, that success has not been recent. Their AFC Asian Cup title came in 2015. At the World Cup, Australia’s success has not been great. They’ve only reached the Round of 16 twice, including in the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Winning Group D would be a great accomplishment for Australia. Can they do it? That’s the question.
Türkiye – 22nd in FIFA Rankings
If there is a team in Group D that is battle-tested, it’s the Crescent-Stars. Türkiye advanced to the play-offs for the second consecutive time, winning this time around to reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup. They’re the second-highest-ranked team in the group at 22nd. As already mentioned, they’re the only team in the group to defeat the United States in the last year. It’s small, but it’s something that will likely be in the heads of their opponents.
Türkiye’s continental and World Cup success has not been great. Their best success in Europe is finishing third at the 2008 Euros. It is important to keep in mind, though, that UEFA is the most difficult football confederation in the world. At the World Cup, their best finish was third in 2002. With only two World Cup appearances, it’s not a bad record. That said, making only two World Cups is not great.
I think they have a great opportunity to win Group D, though. Most take it lightly, but I think there is a lot to be said for being the team with the most recent competitive experience. It’s not going to take much for them to get up. That’s something to watch as they face the other teams.
Paraguay – 40th in FIFA Rankings
Unfortunately for The Guaraníes, they are the worst-ranked team in Group D at 40th. Let’s be honest, their prospects of winning the group are very slim. Fortunately for them, football is played on the pitch, not on paper. So, Paraguay could shock North America and knock one of the host nations out in the Group Stage. Who knows? Again, it’s not impossible. Every tournament has a Cinderella. Do I think it’s happening? No, but it doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
My apologies! I’ve done this in reverse and gave their outlook first. In competition, Paraguay has done well in matches that matter, as evidenced by their qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In friendlies, though, they have not been great against the better teams. While they did win against Mexico last year, they also lost to Brazil, South Korea, the United States, and Morocco. In fairness, I did not see the Morocco match. So, I can’t say with certainty that Morocco wasn’t awarded the win after the match.
The Guaraníes have two continental titles (the 1953 South American Championship and the 1979 Copa América championship). Their best finish at the World Cup was reaching the quarterfinals in 2010. Outside of that, they’ve made the Round of 16 two other times in their seven World Cup appearances. Again, can they win the group? I don’t think so, but prove me wrong.
The Prediction
While I do believe all the matches will be highly contested, I think it will come down to two teams in the end to win Group D: The United States and Türkiye. For Australia, I will make a bold prediction: they will be one of the eight teams to advance to the Round of 32 as the third-best team in their group. Sorry, Paraguay, but I don’t think it’s happening for you this year.
This is tough. While I do question some of Pochettino’s roster decisions, I think the United States wins this group. If Diego Luna were on the roster, I’d feel more comfortable. I think the United States beats Paraguay, beats Türkiye, and draws Australia. Australia will draw Türkiye, which will put them in position to reach the Round of 32.
What do you think? Who do you have winning Group D? Let us know! Be sure to check out our other World Cup coverage as well!
