NFL
By Bill Carroll
Thriving on a Riff: Keeping Mahomes on The Podium or Perish
In February 1941, Charlie “Bird” Parker was playing with jazz pianist and singer Jay McShann and his band, and the band’s manager John Tumino wanted to record the band in preparation for a recording session in Dallas for the Decca label. One of the songs was a version of Tommy Dorsey’s “I’m Getting Sentimental Over You.” The band had been playing a lot of dance music for White audiences and that’s evident when you hear Joe Coleman singing “I’m Getting Sentimental Over You”.
“At first it sounds like pretty standard big band stuff,” says Haddix.
“Then after a kind of schmaltzy vocal, Bird jumps in and takes wing. He’s playing bebop here in Kansas City, 16th notes going to double time, all the tricks of the trade are on full display. It’s such a contrast (to the rest of the song) with Bird playing this otherworldly kind of Bebop before anybody knew what Bebop was. It’s just a revelation!”
At its best, Kansas City’s passing game remains among the most terrifyingly improvisational jazz ensembles in sports, but when they are out of tune or the timing is off, they go from swinging in rhythm, to atonal cacophony. The Chiefs’ “concert stage” is a rebuilt offensive line, and it’s not exactly Carnegie Hall. Their 2025 offense is ranked 4th, up from 7th a week previous, in EPA/Play at .15, improved from .12 the week before, this is a significant drop from previous years, with their EPA/Pass performance even worse at .13, ranking them 10th, but two weeks ago they were at -0.02 which was good for 18th!
Entering the game versus New York the numbers were fairly dispiriting:
What these, mostly middling to poor statistics, illustrate is that while the Chiefs are taking more deep shots than last year, they are less efficient and are missing more.
The Good News
Analyst Robert Kapadia, stated that the Chiefs’ offense achieved the highest success rate of any team in a single game this season last week, and their performance in the recent game October 12th against the Lions was a
“94th percentile offensive game” based on EPA per drive.
The Chiefs defeated the Detroit Lions 30–17
The Kansas City Chiefs have some problems on offense, but rookie left tackle Josh Simmons isn’t one of them. Simmons allowed zero pressures and committed no penalties against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2.Via @Sam_Teets33
- Left Side Under Siege: Rookie LT Josh Simmons and second-year LG Kingsley Suamataia aren’t just green, they’re raw. But both are trending upwards. Suamataia demonstrated significant improvement in week four’s game against the Ravens, allowing no pressures on 41 pass blocking snaps,
“did not allow a pressure on 41 pass blocks,” according to KSHB 41 News‘ Nick Jacobs,
Which was the first time he accomplished this. Simmons was already scrapping with rookie DE Ashton Gillotte in camp; he did well in his “welcome to the NFL, kid” week one and held his own versus prime-time Kayvon Thibodeaux.
- Strategy: Quick throws, misdirection, and play-action sleight of hand. Mahomes is a magician, but eat times he needs more than 1.7 seconds to get in tune.
- Player to Watch: Simmons, obviously. If he holds up against and, Brett Veach will sleep easier. If not, Mahomes will be in survival mode.
- 2002 (5th)
- 2010 (15th)
- 2011 (12th)
- 2013 (15th)
- 2015 (12th)
- 2016 (14th)
- 2024 (10th) If there was ever a time to become a running team, that time may be now. The Kansas City Chiefs’ average rushing attempts per game for the 2025 season is 25.75 attempts, with 103 total attempts over the course of four games. Those 103 attempts have resulted in 442 yards, 4.3 per rush and three TDs.
- Quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for three touchdowns and ran for another.
- Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, with two touchdown catches, had his first multi-touchdown game in four years.
- Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy also had a touchdown reception. The strong offensive play comes ahead of the return of wide receiver Rashee Rice from suspension, which
Unfortunately Patrick Lavon Mahomes II still leads the team in rushing with 222 yards. The Chiefs are 23rd in the NFL with runs on 40.85% of their plays. Anyone even vaguely familiar with the last few seasons of this team is aware that they are pass dominant. However, this week seems to present a real conundrum, the Chiefs need to become an effective running team, but The Raiders are 10th in the NFL, allowing an average of 95.3 yards per game.
Chip Kelly’s College Revival: Still Out of Tune
On the other sideline, Chip Kelly’s Raiders offense is a rhythm without soul. It moves fast but lacks melody. They average just 17.2 points per game and rank 29th in EPA/play (–0.14). QB Eugene Cyril “Geno” Smith III (7 TDs, 10 INTs) is operating on a three-second average time-to-throw, ritardando compared to Mahomes’ accelerando.
The receivers (Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker and rookie Jack Bech) have struggled with spacing, and the line struggles to hold its blocks long enough for Kelly’s concepts to unfold. It’s all rhythm, no swing.
The con brio note is rookie RB Ashton Jeanty, who’s totaled 350 yards and four TDs over his last three games. He’s a player capable of breaking structure and injecting improvisational flair the offense lacks. Expect plenty of screens, misdirection, and jet motion designed to give him daylight.
Still, Kelly’s system, an unfinished chart, lacking groove.
Maybe It’s Time to Play in 4/4
Kansas City has flirted with becoming a running team before, but this season might finally demand it. They’re averaging 25.8 rushes per game, 103 total carries for 442 yards (4.3 per attempt) and three touchdowns. The problem? Mahomes leads the team in rushing with 222 yards.
They run on 40.8% of plays, ranking 23rd. It’s a symptom of habit, a band that prefers swinging to straight-ahead. But this week’s match-up complicates things: Las Vegas is 10th in the NFL against the run, allowing just 95.3 yards per game.
Mahomes carried the offense against Detroit, throwing three touchdowns and running for another. Hollywood Brown had his first multi-score game in four years, rookie Xavier Worthy caught one too, and suspended receiver Rashee Rice returns this week to deepen the arsenal.
Still, this team’s groove depends on balance — on rediscovering rhythm through the ground game.
Defense Meets Bebop: The ii–V–I Progression
If bebop’s defining movement is the ii–V–I progression, tension, dissonance, resolution, the changes that Kansas City’s offense want to play every Sunday.
The ii is the motion: jet sweeps, orbit motion, shifting the defense’s center of gravity.
The V is the tension: Mahomes escaping the pocket, eyes scanning, timing distorting.
And the I—the resolution is that impossible throw off one foot, the moment when everything clicks, and you wonder if gravity is optional for him.
When it’s working, it’s Bird’s solo on “Ko-Ko” furious, fluid, inevitable. But bebop still needs structure. Without the rhythm section, the offensive line, Mahomes’ melodies collapse.
Vegas knows this. Crosby and Tyree Wilson will attack the Chiefs’ left edge relentlessly, forcing Mahomes to step up rather than out. If they can contain the scrambling and muddy the windows, they might just mute the horns.
Chiefs Defense: The Unsung Bass-line
For all the improvisation on offense, Kansas City’s defense under Steve Spagnuolo is the walking bass line, steady, reliable, occasionally flashing virtuosity. They’re allowing just over 20.7 points per game (11th), with a bend-don’t-break approach that relies on red-zone stinginess.
They’ll aim to confuse Geno Smith with disguised coverage and late rotations. Smith’s interceptions have come mostly on delayed reads, perfect bait for Spagnuolo’s trap schemes. Expect pressure from the edges, cloud coverage underneath, and a focus on forcing field goals over touchdowns. Pedestrian, perhaps but it keeps Mahomes on the bandstand.
The Head-Cutting Contest
So what happens when two contrasting styles meet, the improvisational offense and the disciplined defense, the bebop soloist and a drummer as metronome? That’s the duel here: Mahomes riffing against Crosby’s precise power. Andy Reid’s symphony of chaos against Pete Carroll’s Sousa marches of structure.
The Raiders want “76 Trombones.” The Chiefs want “A Night in Tunisia.” If Vegas dictates tempo, keeps Mahomes in the pocket, capitalizes on field position, they can drag this game into a 20–13 grinder. But if Mahomes and Reid find rhythm if they start layering motion, exploiting mismatches, hitting that perfect ii–V–I flow, Vegas will be chasing ghosts by halftime.
Prediction: Jazz Wins
Kansas City 27, Las Vegas 23. Reid’s ensemble may be Cool Jazz early, only later unleashing complex rhythmic patterns, chromatic passing tones, and octave displacements that signal KC BeBop. When Mahomes finds his range, the music will swell. Vegas will mount a contrapuntal effort, pressure, and a heavy dose of Jeanty, but they can’t match KC’s improvisational depth.
In the end, it’s the same truth Charlie Parker proved in a Kansas City club 84 years ago: when the soloist catches fire, there’s nothing the rhythm section can do but hang on and pray for the downbeat.
