NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The Dolphins head to Buffalo Thursday night as Buffalo tries to make it 3-0 on the year. The Dolphins have had a rough start, but division games are always difficult. Speed is one of Buffalo’s kryptonites, and Devon Achane is a man with a couple of Nos tanks ready to take off in the open field.
If Buffalo wants to be a serious Super Bowl contender, it needs to handle these games with ease. Buffalo can beat Miami in multiple ways, so let’s take a look at how we get to 3-0:
Make Tua make the bad decision
Tua, as a quarterback, is built on timing and rhythm. Tua wants the ball out quickly and allows his receivers to take off running. Sean McDermott dials up a very good game plan every time Buffalo plays the Dolphins, and it starts with disrupting the timing.
McDermott can stick to his similar game plan of press-man coverage with disguised coverages. If Buffalo can initiate physicality to Tyreek Hill and Waddle at the line of scrimmage, Tua will need to look at his second or third read. That is where Tua makes his mistakes.
Tua panics when timing is off and throws the ball straight to defenders. Tua in 2024 threw seven interceptions, and six came from when he was not blitzed and kept clean in the pocket. This year, he has thrown three interceptions, and they have also come when he was clean in the pocket.
If you get Tua rattled, he is bound to throw some interceptions. Buffalo has won the turnover battle for 24 straight games, and they intend to keep it that way this Thursday.
Shred the linebackers
The Dolphins’ secondary may be the worst in the league, and I believe they may know that. They will play a lot of cover two shell to let the defensive backs keep everything in front of them, avoiding explosive plays.
This makes the field more open, allowing short and intermediate passes a little bit easier for the opposing quarterbacks. Last Sunday versus the Patriots, Drake Maye was 14 for 17 passing in the short and intermediate.
The Dolphins’ linebackers were absolutely shredded against Drake Mayes’ short and intermediate passing. For every Dolphins linebacker who had a target thrown at them, they only had one incompletion throughout the game (13 targets, 12 catches).
Josh Allen can have a calm game in the pocket and operate as a facilitator throughout the game. Buffalo could expect a very efficient game in passing as he could pass for fewer than 25 attempts, but complete over 20 passes.
Stop Achane
Achane was the highlight reel of the game versus the Patriots, and Buffalo does have an issue with players like Achane. Achane only had 30 yards rushing, but added eight catches for 92 yards and a touchdown.
Matt Milano may be out for the game, so that we could have Dorian Williams and Terrel Bernard as our linebackers. Taron Johnson seems like he will be good to go on Thursday, and the three will need to identify Achane on all plays.
He is lethal in the screen game, and Buffalo will need to ensure that we limit his passing game. Tua is not a mobile quarterback, so Taron Johnson can almost work as a man coverage strictly on Achane. This can force Tua to panic, and as I explained above, throw a ball right to a defender, and win the turnover margin.
Vegas has Buffalo as a 12.5-point favorite, and it is the highest spread for the week. The over/under is 48.5, which is a tight line, as I believe they don’t think the Dolphins will score enough to hit the total, but Buffalo will score high. This schedule is designed for Buffalo to secure the one seed, and avoiding trap games is crucial. This game should not be a trap game, and Buffalo should get it done with ease Thursday night. As always, Go Bills.
