NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The Bills need to move on quickly and start preparing for Sunday afternoon for the New York Jets. There is nothing worse than a celebration hangover loss because the team couldn’t prepare right after a monster win. Buffalo takes on the New York Jets in a match that eerily seems similar to the Baltimore Ravens.
Now, by no means are the New York Jets close in talent to the Baltimore Ravens, but they possess similarities in X-factor players and schematics. Most importantly, New York has a dual-threat quarterback who has a similar rushing style to Lamar Jackson. Let’s dive into this game and what Buffalo needs to do to handle the Jets on their turf:
Their running backs are good, but they are not Derrick Henry
The New York Jets have two solid running backs in Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. The Jets ran the ball 39 times in week one, and Breece Hall ran for over 100 yards. Braelon Allen was not used in game one, but I would expect him to be used against Buffalo. Braelon Allen is a power running back with a similar size to Derrick Henry. The Jets just watched Derrick Henry power our lighter linebackers and run for over 150 yards.
The Jets ran some personnel with both Allen and Hall on the field at the same time, and I expect the Jets to do it more frequently against the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo can stay in their nickel defensive scheme most of the time, but they may need to move to base so Dorian Williams can help defend the run when needed.
Bend, don’t break defense can work against this team
The Buffalo Bills like to keep everything in front of them and avoid explosive plays to make their opponents’ offense work for it. The New York Jets’ offense is not stacked by any means, but they did play well against the Steelers. Buffalo’s biggest weakness is its defensive backs, but Justin Fields is a far better rusher than he is a passer.
Justin Fields only threw seven attempts over 10 air yards or more, and one pass of 20 air yards or more. The Jets’ coaching staff will stick to the same script heading into week two, because they did almost upset the Steelers, so they believe that formula will work. This can allow Buffalo to maintain the nickel position the majority of the time and enable Taron Johnson to be impactful in coverage.
Justin Fields may have had a good passing game in week 1, but he is statistically inaccurate. For his NFL career, he floats closer to a 60% than a 70% completion percentage, and Buffalo can get off the field, forcing punts.
Buffalo relies on turnovers to flip the script on games, but I believe we can force the Jets into more 4th downs, and Josh Allen can be efficient with the drives he is given.
Joe Brady can be exotic in his play calling, but not THAT exotic
Joe Brady almost threw the kitchen sink last week when it came to pre-snap motion, trickery, and personnel. Joe Brady’s personnel was so robust, this is what some of it looked like:
21 (2 RB, 1 TE) Personnel – 5 times
22 (2 RB, 2 TE) Personnel – 6 times
23 (2 RB, 3 TE) Personnel – 2 times
13 (1 RB, 3 TE) personnel – 2 times
Joe Brady also ran the Wing-T offense three times, with Dawson Knox involved. Typically, in a wing T formation, you have a running back to Josh Allen’s right and left in shotgun formation. Joe Brady ran it with a running back to Josh’s left and Dawson Knox to Josh’s right.
This was an interesting wrinkle that I do not want to go away from, but some traditional plays can work just fine against this Jets defense. Buffalo only ran play action 15% of the time against the Baltimore Ravens. If Joe Brady were to go “exotic”, he should dial up more play-action passing to put the Jets defense on their toes.
The Jets have a top 15 cornerback in Sauce Gardner, but the safeties and other corners can be exploited consistently. Buffalo’s ‘everybody eats’ mantra does not make Sauce as impactful as he would be when there are teams with heavy use of one wide receiver. If Sauce is on Keon Coleman, there are two other pass catchers with a mismatch at hand.
Josh Allen did such a good job at recognizing defenses pre-snap, adjusting the play, and exploiting the weakness of the secondary that he saw. I expect Josh to do the same, and more efficiently. The Baltimore Ravens’ secondary is the best in the league, and he put up 41 points doing that.
Getting to Justin Fields
Justin Fields can recognize blitzes pre-snap and handles them well. In Week 1, Justin Fields was blitzed on 12 drop-backs and completed 64% of his passes, including a touchdown. He has a quick release and can get the ball out quickly as an outlet, and he makes sure it is not in harm’s way.
Now, when Justin Fields is pressured, his completion percentage drops to 50%, and he only threw for 50 yards. If Buffalo can pressure Justin Fields with four on the defensive line consistently, Justin Fields has a difficult time going through his progressions and making the right decision.
When you have seven in coverage, there are not many windows to throw the ball, and Justin Fields will stick to bailing out of the pocket and trying to do it with his legs. Buffalo should designate Matt Milano as the quarterback spy and ensure he does not achieve first downs with his legs, thereby limiting his capabilities.
The key to this game is the trenches. Buffalo has a better offensive line by a good margin, and they should be able to hold their own, as they did a good job against Baltimore’s defensive line. Buffalo will need to pressure Justin Fields, rushing four defenders, and they can get it done with a much weaker offensive line than they had to go up against in week one.
Vegas has Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 44.5 points. Buffalo has some trouble playing the New York Jets on their turf, but I do not believe this year they will experience that trouble. The only thing stopping the Buffalo Bills from losing this game is getting in their own way. Buffalo already put on pads on Wednesday to prepare for this game, so Buffalo has already forgotten about that epic win and avoided the hangover that could ensue. As always, Go Bills.
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