NFL
By Steve Rogers
The Minnesota Vikings are in the midst of their first losing streak of the year. Two games in less than two weeks. Five days to be exact and not just to anybody either they lost to the Detroit Lions who have been blowing teams out Like the Dallas Cowboys, and the Tennessee Titans. The Lions began the season on the short list of NFC Championship contenders. At 6-1, they are certainly living up to the hype. Yet the Vikings fought to the end and fell short by a whole two points to the Lions.
Five days after traveling west the Vikings faced a team two years removed from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in the L.A. Rams. The Rams were feeling rejuvenated with the healthy return of their top two wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Most NFL teams would be hard-pressed to take on a team on the rise of a championship run and another in the twilight of their championship run as they get fresh weapons back in five days and travel and not lose at least one of them.
Ways The Vikings Can Right the Ship
For starters, the Vikings get nine days to recover and move on to their next opponent the Indianapolis Colts. The Vikings also get to prepare and play this game at home. The Vikings enjoy a significant crowd noise advantage when playing inside the U.S. Bank Stadium. There’s a saying “There’s no place like home” and that’s especially true for the Vikings. Secondly, there’s the history. On December 17, 2022, the last time the Colts and Vikings played each other the Vikings made history by coming back from a 33-0 halftime deficit. It is the largest comeback in NFL history. The Vikings won the game in overtime on a walk-off field goal 39-36.
They say history repeats itself. The Colts came to Minnesota in 2022 with a record of 4-8-1. The 2024 Colts are coming to Minnesota with a 4-4 record. The 2022 Colts had 37-year-old quarterback Matt Ryan leading the offense. After creating front-page news by benching second-year former first-round pick and would-be future franchise quarterback Anthony Richardson the 2024 Colts are turning to 39-year-old veteran quarterback Joe Flacco.
Ironically, Flacco is actually a few months older than Ryan!?! Both quarterbacks were released by their respective teams following the 2022 season. Ryan became an NFL TV analyst in 2023 and officially retired this year. Flacco on the other hand has seen a career resurgence as he led the Cleveland Browns to a playoff birth after getting a call while sitting at home hoping for one. He was also awarded the Comeback Player of the Year.
Earlier this year the Vikings faced another 39-plus-year-old former Super Bowl Champion quarterback Aaron Rodgers (40). This Brian Flores-led defense had three interceptions of Rodgers. Rodgers is the league’s record holder in TD-INT ratio at 4.53 as well as the lowest interception rate at 1.4%. He has 112 career interceptions. In contrast, Flacco has thrown 156 career interceptions. The 2.4% interception rate of Flacco is similar to Rodgers’s. However, that 1% is a lot when you break it down per season. Rodgers averages just over 6.5 interceptions per year. Flacco on the other hand averages over nine at 9.2 per year. Is Flacco going to throw four interceptions this Sunday to the Vikings? Not likely but he is MORE likely to throw an interception or two more often than Rodgers. Add that to a Vikings defense that has 15 interceptions on the year. That’s the second most in the league.
Just What The Dr. Ordered
Thirdly the Vikings will welcome back the healthy return of Pro-Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson. Hockenson immediately gives the Vikings offense a significant boost. Not only in the pass game but in the run game as well Hockenson is solid as a run blocker. Hockenson is a complete tight end. Over the last two seasons since becoming a Viking he is second in tight-end targets to the one-and-only Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs. Hockenson does his most damage on the intermediate routes. Thus far the Vikings have been suffering in that exact area of the field.
During that time he racked up 155 receptions good for a 73% catch rate. With 1,479 yards he averaged 9.5 yards per catch. Talk about a chain mover Hockenson averaged 3.0 first downs per game. Hockenson has stated he is now “Bigger, stronger and faster than ever.” If Hockenson is the NFL’s version of the “Six Million Dollar Man” and can play even better than his current incredible numbers, then not only are the Colts but every team remaining on the Vikings schedule is in big trouble.
A Rx For Success
The narrative the Vikings have to shift or restructure their offense to reinvolve Hockenson into the fold is rather misleading and overstated. The Vikings without him simply shut the door on the bulk of their tight-end pass plays. Yes, the Vikings have relied heavily on the wide receivers. Specifically, Justin Jefferson has a whopping 36% target share rate. Even as great as Jefferson is that is just not sustainable in the long run.
The realigning of the target share is not a problem but actually a weapon as it now frees Jefferson from the pressure of trying to shoulder too much of the load and it eliminates the exhausting overuse of Jefferson. Allowing him to remain fresher for each of the targets he still gets moving forward. Picture this Jefferson and Jordan Addison outside Jalen Nailor in the slot and then Hockenson at tight end. Good luck defense are you going to double all four and only rush three? Nope, one or two of those guys are going to win consistently and be open for Sam Darnold to distribute the ball to.
The playbook of head coach Kevin O’Connell can be opened back up to its full potential with all of the necessary weapons/players back at full strength. Look for a vast array of the arsenal to be on display this Sunday at home against the Colts. At times the Vikings offense has been rolling averaging nearly 28 points a game so far. Yet the Vikings offense has missed steps and fallen flat suddenly out of nowhere. The addition of Hockenson back in the mix should see immediate improvement and lessen those missed steps. The Vikings play complimentary football their offensive success helps feed energy to the defense and vice versa. The Viking’s defense has been a bit soft to leaky and giving up too many big plays and more points than they were to start the year.
Look for the Viking’s offense to come out firing early and set the tone for the game and hype up the defense to step up their play too. The Vikings have been impressive as a defense against the run. They will be tested with running back Jonathan Taylor. However, if they can shut him down and keep him from being an X-factor that will put too much pressure on Flacco and the passing game to keep up with the Viking’s offensive attack. Turnovers sacks and ruining running games have been the calling cards of the Vikings’ defense this year if they can win those three categories that will lead to the Vikings getting back in the win column. The Vikings offense will have three to four touchdown drives. The final score will be a 33-17 Vikings win.
