NFL
By Keith Richards
We’re rapidly approaching the end of Rafael Navarro’s Colorado Rapids loan. Back in July of last year, the club announced they had loaned Rafael Navarro from Brazilian Serie A’s S.E. Palmeiras. The loan for Rafael Navarro ends on June 30th, leaving the Rapids with a mere ten matches to answer a single question: Is Rafael Navarro worth $4.5 Million?
The Rapids initially loaned Navarro from Palmeiras for $500,000 with a club option to make the deal permanent by June 30, 2024. If Colorado decides to keep him, they would be committing to an additional $4.5 million, surpassing the current record fee paid for midfielder Djordje Mihailovic. For a club not known for hefty spending, this is a significant financial decision.
Keeping Rafael Navarro doesn’t seem like a tough decision if you look at the basic statistics. 11 matches into the 2024 season, Navarro leads the Rapids with seven goal contributions (five goals and two assists). However, you must dig deeper than that to understand why this is a tough decision for Colorado.
On the surface, there are some clear positives. Of Rafael Navarro’s five goals, three have come from penalties, leaving him with two goals from open play. This is a significant improvement considering Navarro has almost doubled the number of goals that any Rapids forward produced last season. However, it’s important to consider the context of last season’s poor performance by the Colorado squad and also compare Navarro’s production with other Designated Players in MLS.
Here’s a look at how some of the other Designated Players on other MLS squads have performed so far this season:
- Lionel Messi – Inter Miami: 22 goal contributions (10 goals, 12 assists)
- Luciano Acosta – FC Cincinnati: 10 goal contributions (5 goals, 5 assists)
- Cristian Arango – Real Salt Lake: 16 goal contributions (9 goals, 7 assists)
- Luis Suarez – Inter Miami: 15 goal contributions (10 goals, 5 assists)
Now, it is important to note that Rafael Navarro is being compared to some of MLS’s best Designated Players. That said, with a $5 million price tag to complete the acquisition of Rafael, this is the viewpoint you must view it from. Even regarding MLS record incoming transfer fees, the cost of Rafael Navarro’s transfer from Palmeiras would not crack the top ten list of all time. The combination of the transfer fee and the Designated Player title places the Navarro decision under so much scrutiny.
Above, I mentioned looking at Rafael Navarro’s basic statistics. The advanced statistics for Navarro are not as kind. Regarding Rafael (before the latest match), Box State Footy noted, “Rafael Navarro has a total of 4 goals w/ 5 SoT; 3 of them from the spot. 2 assists. His npxG total is 1.1 from the season. His Goals Added metric is a team low of -0.82.”
For those who are not stats nerds, npxG stands for non-penalty expected goals. Viewing Navarro from this standpoint is damning. However, there are positives that Navarro has brought to the Colorado Rapids this season. Those positives include:
- Top ten in MLS is goals scored: Five
- Per FootyStats, 15th in xG total: 4.44
- 2 xG on Target (12th in MLS)
Another positive for Rafael Navarro this season is that he’s created well for himself. Matt Pollard of Burgundy Wave recently published an article that details just how well Navarro creates from himself. Pollard discussed the Colorado Rapids Top 15 tandems in attack by cumulative xG.
Matt stated, “Navarro’s best setup man is him creating chances on his own. More bluntly, the best attacking tandem on the Rapids by total xG is Navarro to himself. Navarro’s 1.18 xG does not include his three penalties, to be clear.” As the shooter, Rafael Navarro makes that list only one other time. With team captain Keegan Rosenberry as the passer, Navarro has an xG sum of 0.20.
So, is Rafael Navarro worth $4.5 Million? I’ve presented both positive and negative arguments for this argument. Navarro came to the Rapids with high expectations, but we have had time to examine the reality of his impact on the team. The reality is that, on paper, Rafael Navarro is not worth the $4.5 Million it would take to acquire the Brazilian striker permanently. However, the Rapids need to do what they can to keep Rafael.
Nosso Palestra recently reported that Palmeiras and the Rapids have been in negotiations to reduce Rafael Navarro’s asking price. Though he may not be worth $4.5 Million, it is worth it for Colorado to keep Navarro on the squad if they can negotiate a lower price. I know what the stats say, but I can’t help but feel that the Colorado Rapids’ success this season would decrease without Rafael Navarro on the pitch.
Navarro will have a chance to improve his standing with the team when Colorado welcomes San Jose to Dick’s Sporting Goods Park this Saturday. The Rapids are already looking to win the season series after defeating the Earthquakes 3-0 this season. I will be onsite representing Team NBS Media. Be sure to follow us on Twitter for my live thread of the match.
