NFL
By Bill Carroll
“Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them”
Act II Scene 5 of Twelfth Night by William Shakespeare: spoken by Malvolio
Waiver week 14 arrives and you may be seeing names like: Ezekiel Elliott, Joe Flacco and Jimmy Graham, which may make you think that this is a fantasy football article from the end of the Obama Administration; however in 16 or more team and or super-flex leagues, these are among the players being added.
If you survived to this point in your season with help from my advice about: James Earl Conner, Tank Dell, Josh Dobbs, Jahan Dotson, Sam Howell, Chuba Hubbard, Dalton Kincaid, Trey McBride, Kyler Murray, Rashee Rice, Brian Robinson Jr. or Rachaad White, you are most welcome, however some of them are unavailable in waiver week 14. So here are some top targets to add.
Waiver Week 14: Running Backs
James Cook of the Bills and New England’s Ezekiel Elliott are the top waiver week 14 targets at this position for rather different reasons. Earlier in the season Cook was in a near even time share with Latavius Murray, with Murray getting the bulk of the red-zone touches.
However, Cook is now averaging 11.4 in .5 point PPR leagues, with 11, 17.7 and 13 in his last three games. He is a must add. The arrow is pointed up for him. Tyjae Spears posted a career-high 75 yards on 16 carries, now Derrick Henry is not in concussion protocol, but I will be surprised if he does not see a dip in his share of touches.
Brian Robinson Jr. had been a solid option. As of last week he had 160 rushes for 664 yards at 4.2 yards per carry. He had been averaging 13.85 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues, [12.4 in .5 point PPR leagues]. In the three games before leaving Sunday’s match-up, he had averaged 19.77 fantasy points per game. He was on his way to a big game before an injury to his hamstring sidelined him.
Antonio Gibson rushed for 35 yards on 10 carries in the Commanders’ 45-15 loss to Miami. He caught four of his five targets for 37 yards. He could nearly double his touches in waiver week 14.
Kenneth Gainwell may see an uptick in use, if D’Andre Swift is limited. Swift took a beating versus the 49ers. Gainwell is averaging 5.2 per game, in .5 point PPR leagues and now he is likely to be in a close to even touch split, if Swift is not healthy.
Last but not least is Ezekiel Elijah Elliott, is he a 28-year-old power back in a struggling offense? Yes, yes he is, the Patriots are 32nd out of 32 teams in red-zone scoring attempts at two per game. So if you are looking for a back that will get volume, New England is averaging 33 rushes per game and with Rhamondre Stevenson hobbling, after he left Sunday’s contest with an ankle sprain, Elliott is poised for a possible breakout.
Waiver Week 14: Wide Receivers
Nico Collins, went off in week 13 with 12 targets, nine receptions, 191 yards and a score. He now faces a tough Jets secondary. Despite the match-up, both Collins and Brown should be added. Tank Dell has a fractured Fibula.
Noah Brown was already averaging 10 points per game, in .5 point PPR leagues and now he is likely to see a significant bump in use with Dell out and Dalton Chase Schultz, less than 100%. In Weeks 9-10, Brown had 325 yards and a touchdown and was a top-6 wide receiver both weeks.
Doug Pederson said Tuesday that Christian Kirk will “miss some time” due to the abdominal muscle injury he has suffered. In very deep leagues Zay Jones may be considered, he has averaged 2.6 targets per game. He should see an increase, but Engram, Etienne and Calvin Ridley will be the main beneficiaries.
My favorite deep league dart throw is Elijah Moore. His last four games have produced 12.9, 9, 3.9 and 10.3, in .5 point PPR leagues. My other deep league dart throws are Jonathon Mingo, who is now being targeted more. He has career-bests in catches six, targets, 10 and receiving yards 69, with at least six targets in four straight games for Carolina. In a super deep league, a true dart throw is deep ball specialist, Alec Pierce, who had six targets, three catches for 100 yards and his first TD of 2023.
Waiver Week 14: Quarterbacks
Josh Allen finishes the week 13 bye as the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback. Allen has been a top-six scorer in seven of his past nine games played. This includes, a season-high, 39.7 fantasy points, [standard scoring] against the Eagles, prior to the bye. If you drafted or traded for him this should be a good time for you. The Bills need wins and whenever desperate times arrive, Allen tends to try to do even more.
Sam Howell is on a bye and Patrick Lavon Mahomes II, is available in about 0.0% of fantasy football leagues, so what team is third in pass attempt per game? That was a semi-trick question, the Saints and Vikings are tied for that spot at 37.4 pass attempt per game. If Josh Dobbs was dropped, grab him.
Jacob Christopher Browning was a record-setting QB in both high school and college. Now as the Bengals new starter, he threw for a league-high 354 passing yards and 32 completions. Browning was the, consensus, fourth ranked fantasy football quarterback, just after Geno Smith, Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott. Even in 12-14 team leagues he is worthy of being added, if you have a starter on a bye.
Trevor Lawrence is now battling a high ankle sprain, this could mean that he misses more than just one game.
“It’s just a right, high ankle sprain. Everything’s stable, everything looks good, and we’ll see where he is in a couple of days.”
If you are in a very, very deep, 20 or more team league and/or a super-flex league and you have a starter on a bye, C.J. Beathard is a true desperation dart throw.
Derek Dallas Carr is still in the concussion protocol and is being evaluated for a rib injury Jameis Lanaed Winston is the probable, Waiver Week 14, starter for a team that needs to win to keep pace in the NFC South.
Waiver Week 14: Tight Ends
I was only half joking about Jimmy Graham. A decade ago he averaged 16.3 points per game in .5 point PPR, 19 points in PPR leagues and 13.6 standard scoring leagues. Those days are long gone. In 2023 he has averaged 1.8 in .5 point PPR, with 14 yards in receptions and two TD catches. But Jameis Lanaed Winston is likely to start in waiver week 14 and is taking the starter’s share of practice repetitions.
Winston is more aggressive than Derek Dallas Carr, this is good news for any of the Saints healthy pass catchers. I can assure you that Jimmy Graham is healthy and well rested. Taysom Shawn Hill, Cade Otton, Dalton Schultz, and Logan Lamont Thomas Sr. are preferred options in any leagues were they are available.
Gerald Everett and Isaiah Likely are both facing bottom-six tight end defenses. Also, one of my favorite deep league desperation dart throws is the other Saints’ tight end, Juwan Johnson. In his past five games, Johnson has 11 receptions on 20 targets, for 81 yards, and a total of 19.6 fantasy points and in 2023, he has averaged 3.7 .5 point PPR per game.
This is just a feel pick. I just am foreseeing about six targets, four receptions and 48 yards. He might even grab a TD catch.
Also, add the Steelers’ TE, if Pat Freiermuth was rage dropped after going from 11 targets, nine catches and 120 yards in week 12 to three targets, five catches and 29 yards in week 13. He will probably remain a favorite of current QB Mitchell Trubisky.
Waiver Week 14: Kickers
I am keeping my faith in Younghoe Koo, Nick Folk, Matt Gay, Dustin Hopkins and Jason Myers with Blake Grupe as my favorite deep league desperation dart throw. He has slumped of late with six or more points in just three of his last five games, but the injury at QB may create more field goal chances. In very deep leagues consider Mason Crosby, who will supplant Lucas Havrisik, who was only seven of 10 in 2023, but averaged two field goal attempts per game.
Waiver Week 14: Defense/Special Teams
The most enticing sections are the Saints versus Carolina, Steelers facing the moribund Patriots’ offense and Green Bay drawing the game, but undermanned Giants. Remember that in week 12, Green Bay forced three turnovers and held the diverse and talented Lions’ offense to 22 points.
Sunday night, versus the Kansas City Chiefs, the Packers intercepted Patrick Mahomes and held the formidable Chiefs to 20 points. This same defense now will stalk the Giants’ remedial offense, opposing defenses are nearly guaranteed to hit double-digits.
The surging Texans defense will have multiple turnover and sack opportunities, as the Jets will be sending either Tim Boyle or, more likely, Trevor John Siemian to take snaps from the center. As long as the running game is contained, a double-digit total is extremely probable.
The only way you would not add and start Houston’s defense, would be a miracle healing by Aaron Charles Rodgers. They are a strong starting option, my deep league desperation dart throw defenses are Miami versus the Titans, who are missing Derrick Henry and surprisingly, the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense facing a, once elite, Buffalo offense.
Injuries have created opportunities for some to “have greatness thrust upon them.” I hope that you can benefit from those who rise to the occasion.
