NFL
By Keith Richards
The Denver Broncos have had tough tests three times this year against the assumed elites of the AFC (The Chiefs twice and the Dolphins once). In Week 10, it’s time for the Broncos to hit the books again. Denver heads to Orchard Park to face to Buffalo Bills under the bright lights of Monday Night Football in Week 10.
Entering their Week 10 contest, the Broncos and Bills are 3-2 and 2-3, respectively, in the last five games. Though Buffalo is still a dangerous team, it’s not the same Bills team that has been feared these last two to three seasons. Does Denver have a shot to pull off the upset in Week 10? Let’s discuss the offensive and defensive keys to victory. Then, we’ll decide if they can save a few tables in New York on Monday night.
Game Notes
• Buffalo leads the all-time series 23-16-1
• Denver’s last win against the Bills was on 12/07/14; at home, 24-17, with Peyton Manning under center
• The Bills hold the largest victory in the series; 48-19 on 12/19/20
• Both teams are not great in regards to turnovers. Both have a differential of zero. The Bills struggle more with interceptions (9). The Broncos struggle more with fumbles (8)
Week 10 Defensive Keys to Victory
Normally, we discuss the offense first, but we’re switching it up in Week 10. As the defense has been the catalyst of Denver’s two-game unbeaten streak, the defense will need to be the catalyst for a Week 10 victory. As I stated earlier, the Buffalo Bills are not the feared team now that they were for the last few years. If the Broncos can do two things in Week 10 on defense, they can win this game. It all has to do with Josh Allen.
The first defensive key to victory in Week 10 is to make Josh Allen uncomfortable. Coming into Week 10 of this season, blitz packages have greatly frustrated the Wyoming Cowboys alum. While Allen is amongst the league leaders in big-time throws (5th), if you can blitz Josh and turn him over at key moments of the game, he struggles to recover.
Just look at the losses for the Bills this season:
• 22-16 loss to the Jets/Four Joshn Allen turnovers/Turnover to start the second quarter
• 25-20 loss to the Jags/One Josh Allen turnover/Interception after recovering a Jacksonville fumble; led to a Jags’ score and 11-point lead
• 29-25 loss to the Patriots/Two Josh Allen turnovers/Interception on Bills’ first offensive play of the game; led to a New England 10-0 lead.
That is not to say that Josh Allen is incapable of making comebacks. Now in his sixth season with Buffalo, Allen has led 12 fourth-quarter comebacks. However, that is not the case this season. Heading into Week 10, the Bills are 1-4 in games where they did not have the lead heading into the fourth quarter. Turn Josh over at key moments. Blitz him efficiently.
There is, however, a danger to blitzing Josh Allen. Blitzing Allen and the Bills often mean more one-on-one coverage. With one-on-one coverage, there is a greater chance for Josh to run the ball. Mr. Allen is dangerous with his legs. So, the second key to victory for the defense in Week 10 is to not break contain.
Heading into Week 10, Josh Allen is sixth among QBs in rushing yards with 233. That puts him second on his team in total rushing yards. Josh is first on the team with a 5.3 yards per carry average. As a 6’5”, 230 lb quarterback, Allen is hard to bring down in general. When you add his speed for his size into the equation, it can sometimes feel impossible to bring the man down.
So, it falls to players like Nik Bonitto, Zach Allen, and Baron Browning to set the edge and maintain contain with the Bills QB. If Josh Allen can reach the second level, smaller linebackers and defensive backs struggle to tackle him. It’s imperative that the edge rushers and defensive ends funnel Allen inside for the big boys to take him down.
Offensive Keys to Victory
There is one simple offensive key to victory in Week 10: Successfully run the football. It’s the job of the defense to contain Josh Allen as much as they can. In Week 10, it will be up to the offense to keep Josh off the field for as long as they can and put the Bills in as big a hole as possible. To do this, Denver MUST have a great game with the rushing attack.
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In their last two wins against the Packers and Chiefs, the Broncos ran the ball for 145 and 153 yards, respectively. Against the Chiefs, along with the turnovers created by the defense, it’s not a coincidence that the Broncos won the game and the time of possession battle. Just as the Denver offense kept Mahomes off the field, they must do the same with Allen.
To achieve this goal, it’s a thunder and lightning approach. Javonte Williams is the bruiser that brings the thunder. Willaims wears down a defensive front seven. Once you wear them down, you bring in the lightning: Jaleel McLaughlin. Jaleel’s patience and speed have allowed him to average 7.1 yards per rush this season. Remember, it’s simple. Thunder. Lightning.
The Week 10 Result
The Buffalo Bills are heavy favorites to win this game. ESPN Analytics gives them a 71% chance to win. On the betting side, Denver comes into the Week 10 game as 7.5-point dogs with a +290 money line. So, who wins this game?
Just as the Broncos are feeling themselves right now, I’m feeling Denver as well. The game will be tight, but I’m picking a 24-20 victory for the Denver Broncos over the Buffalo Bills. The Broncos have not played a game since October 29th; that’s 15 days of rest before they play Monday. With that rest, the Denver front seven will make Allen uncomfortable. Most importantly, the Broncos will go into the 4th quarter with a lead AND they will not relinquish it.
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