NFL
By Keith Richards
Three strikes and you’re out! For two consecutive matches, the Colorado Rapids have failed to score a goal. The first match was a loss. The second match was a draw. What does matchday three hold? Going off of the strike philosophy, if the Rapids fail to score on matchday three, then they’re out. Luckily for Colorado, MLS does not operate on the grounds of strikes for failing to score goals. Still, if Colorado wants to win, they need to score goals. Let’s take a look at a couple of keys to victory for the Rapids on matchday three.
The absolute most imperative key to victory for the Rapids on matchday three is to score a goal. It seems so simple, but it’s been the largest issue for Colorado through two matches. If you need a stronger realization of that fact, see the graphic above this paragraph. The Quakes have info to fill out there. The Rapids do not. It’s really simple math. If you don’t score goals, you cannot win. So, what’s the issue then?
Per FootyStats, the Rapids are 12th in the league in expected goals (xG) at 1.33 after two matches. To put that into perspective, the Seattle Sounders lead MLS with six goals scored. Their xG is 1.50. Austin FC is on the other end. They’re 22nd in xG with 0.55. Yet, Austin has still managed to score three goals. So, I ask again, what’s the issue?
Outside of missing Diego Rubio, one answer to that question is shots on goal (SOG). Heading into matchday three, the Rapids rank 22nd in the league with six SOG. Conversely, Colorado is 11th in the league with 22 shots. So, only 27.3% of the Rapids’ shots are on goal. Compare that to the Sounders and St. Louis CITY FC, who lead the league in goals, they have 51.7% and 56% of their shots on goal, respectively. It’s not the only issue, but having significantly more SOG would go a long way for Colorado on matchday three.
Another answer to the question of what the issue is would be chances created. As a team, Colorado has created 18 chances. Connor Ronan and Darren Yapi are tied for the lead with four chances created a piece. Again, let’s put that in perspective. Cristian Espinoza of San Jose (the team the Rapids face Saturday) has created 18 chances on his own. As a squad, the Earthquakes have created 56 chances. If you’re curious about who that translates to xG, San Jose league with 1.83 xG.
As for the defensive half of the pitch on matchday three, they just need more of the same as matchday two. While William Yarbrough did have an absurdly good match with 11 saves, the backs for Colorado were much better. The mistakes made that led to Sporting’s chances came more from the midfield (as pointed out by Coach Fraser). The greatest improvement was Lalas Abubakar.
He and Maxso worked great together as center backs. They both seemed to know where each other would be. This led to better clearances and better coverage, which makes it easier for a goalkeeper to have 11 saves when he has more stability directly in front of him. Adding Beitashour to the starting lineup created more stability as well. I think Gersbach will be the starter again soon, but the more time he can have to get acclimated, the better.
So, what do we expect for matchday three? Jonathan Lewis is no longer on the injury report. I expect that he will see some time on the pitch, but I believe that time will be limited. There’s no way he’s match fit yet. Jack Price’s availability for matchday three is a mystery. He remains on the injury report with back issues. I don’t think you can count on him just yet.
For the first time, Marko Ilic will be available, but don’t expect him to start. Yarbrough is gripping that starting position tight and Ilic will have to take it from him. What the Starting XI will be on matchday three I think is the biggest question heading into Saturday. I think the following Starting XI gives the Rapids their best chance on matchday three: Yarbrough, Beitashour, Maxso, Abubakar, Rosenberry, Priso, Ronan, Bassett, Cabral, Galvan, Yapi.
The result of matchday three could be favorable based on recent results between the two squads. Over the last five matches, the Rapids are 3-1-1. Colorado scored five goals in one of those matches, but that was back in 2020. Since then, they’ve only scored more than one goal once. I’m feeling good about this one though. I’ll say the Rapids win 2-1. San Jose has been dangerous, but if Colorado can just execute better in the final third they can win.
This will be an away match, so I won’t be onsite. Be sure to follow Team NBS Media on Twitter for match updates. Don’t forget to check out our other MLS coverage as well!
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