NFL
By: Melo Williams
Atlanta Falcons (5-7) will host the surging Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7) in Atlanta at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Week 13.
Pittsburgh is hoping to win their third game in four weeks since the Week 9 bye to keep the Steelers’ winning season hopes alive.
Kenny Pickett managed the Steelers’ offense well in his Monday Night Football debut against the Indianapolis Colts last week. The Steelers will be relying on Pickett to have that same productivity offensively while the defense will be looked upon to slow down the scrappy Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons will be without TE Kyle Pitts who recently underwent season-ending knee surgery as reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Atlanta is averaging 22.7 points per game this year while also giving up 24.4 points defensively.
Pittsburgh is coming off their highest-scoring three-game stretch dating back to last season scoring 24.6 points per game over this span.
KEYS TO VICTORY:
DEFENSE:
Steelers’ defense is 25th overall, 6th in defending the rush, 30th in defending the pass, and 24th in scoring defense.
The Falcons have relied on running the football all season, but now they have to take on the Steelers who have one of the better run defenses in the NFL. The Steelers rank in the top 10 in opponent yards per carry. Though Pittsburgh’s secondary has struggled in stopping the pass, the Falcons only get 49.26% of their offensive yards through the air, ranking second with the lowest rate in the league.
Atlanta’s offensive line can’t pass protect and is rated as one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, ranking 29th in QB sacked percentage.
TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, and the other Steelers’ pass rushers should be licking their lips looking at this matchup.
Highsmith’s 10 sacks are tied for fifth-most in the NFL. His 4 forced fumbles lead the league. Highsmith is a big reason the Steelers’ run defense has made a dramatic improvement this season though T.J. Watt has missed most of the season. It was the worst in the NFL last season, allowing an average of 146.1 yards per game. Now, the Steelers run defense is No. 6 this season, giving up an average of 104 yards per game. A huge improvement, no question but still some work to do.
When asked about the Steelers’ improved defense, Highsmith told reporters, “We know that’s not the way we roll around here,” Highsmith said of last year’s run defense. “If you stop the run, you get teams in second-and-long and third-and-long. They don’t want to play us in third-and-long.”
When Watt was asked about Highsmith’s defense he said “It’s fun to see his pass rush package evolve.”
OFFENSE MUST SET TONE:
Steelers offensively rank 28th overall, 21st rushing the ball, 25th in passing, and 28th in scoring. Though the Steelers’ offensive numbers don’t jump out at you, the offense led by Kenny Pickett should be a balanced attack versus the Falcons.
The Falcons’ defense ranks 28th overall, 21st in defending the run, 28th against the pass, and 25th in scoring.
KEEP PICKETTS’ GAMEPLAN SIMPLE:
Pickett is a rookie quarterback who isn’t going to win the Steelers’ a game throwing the ball 50 times a game. He’s at his best throwing between 25-30 times a game.
Kenny Pickett has 175 completions on 265 attempts for a 66.0% completion percentage. Pickett has thrown for 1,600 yards and three touchdowns with eight interceptions. He’s also added three rushing touchdowns on 35 attempts for 195 yards with a 5.6 yards per carry average.
In Week 12 against the Indianapolis Colts, Pickett completed 20 passes on 28 attempts for a 71.4% completion percentage for 174 yards with no touchdowns but no interceptions.
Pickett’s 87.5 quarterback rating was the highest of any game in his rookie season.
RUN THE BALL BY COMMITTEE:
Najee Harris expects to play Sunday when the Steelers travel to Atlanta. Harris practiced Friday for the first time since injuring his abdomen late in the first half of a 24-17 victory over Indianapolis on Monday night.
Reserves Benny Snell Jr. and Anthony McFarland played well with both Harris and backup Jaylen Warren out, running for a combined 92 yards against the Colts as the Steelers won for the second time in three games.
Jaylen Warren is expected to return Sunday from the hamstring injury.
The Steelers have averaged five yards per carry and have six rushing touchdowns over the last four games. They averaged 3.7 yards per carry and had four rushing touchdowns over the first seven games of the 2022 season.
CONCLUSION:
Pittsburgh wins 27-17
SERIES NOTES:
The Steelers hold a 14-2-1 overall record vs. the Falcons all-time. Also, the Steelers are 3-1-1 vs. the Falcons in their last five meetings.
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