NFL
By: Greg Rector
Around the NFL at every single team’s office, there’s a lot more going on than many people realize. Sure the players and coaches are busy with practices, game tape study, and the rest of the preparations we all know for the following Sunday, Monday, or Thursday night game. Meanwhile, the scouting staffs are busy compiling all their intelligence gathered in the scouting process for the 2023 draft and you can guarantee someone from all 32 teams will be scouting the various conference championship games in CFB this week. That’s only the college scouting department. The pro scouts are doing their homework as well on all the potential 2023 free agents. Yet another group the salary cap guys are working as well on what players the team might be able to sign based upon for now the rumored $225 million salary cap ( I hear it could be even higher) for 2023. Overseeing all of that are 32 general managers, okay 31 because we know the Cowboys operate differently and Jerry Jones isn’t involved the same way the other 31 GMs are in the process. Stephen Jones and Will McClay are busy in Frisco, dealing with all of those issues. Here’s why the work going on right now matters for what will happen next April in Kansas City and the 2023 NFL Draft.
Draft Order
As the NFL season is headed to the playoffs it’s becoming clear what teams will have the top picks in the next draft. The Houston Texans will indeed have the first pick unless they have a miraculous finish to the regular season. Their focus is very likely to be on Bryce Young as their future quarterback as their first pick. Currently, though they also have the 10th pick thanks to the Deshaun Watson trade with Cleveland. This is where the Texans will be doing their due diligence. The Texans will have around $40 million in salary cap space so they should be able to sign a free agent or two. So the pro scouts will under the direction of GM Nick Caserio, be focusing on players of need and there are many for the Texans. The salary cap guys will crunch the numbers and the Texans will have certain figures set aside for their potential targets in free agency. All of that in turn will impact their pick at 10. Hopefully, rather than drafting for need, the Texans instead draft the best player available with that second pick in the first round. This is the tried and true method for the offseason, you sign free agents for needs and draft for value.
If the Chicago Bears stay with the second pick of the draft it gets really interesting for them. They already have their “franchise quarterback,” in Justin Fields, so drafting CJ Stroud (QB2 in this draft class), makes no sense at all. Now add in the fact that the Bears will have a whopping $110 million in cap space for 2023 and the options available for them will be tremendous. Many would assume that the Bears will draft either Will Anderson Jr (Edge Alabama) or Jalen Carter (DT Georgia), with the second pick. However, with that much cap space, the Bears could retool their defensive front in free agency and opt to draft more offense or go the opposite and improve their receivers and offensive line in free agency and draft defense. GM Ryan Poles and the rest of the Bears front office will really be pouring over these options. If they address their “needs,” in free agency and decide they want even more draft picks they can decide to trade the second pick and acquire even more picks not just for 2023 but 2024 as well with a team that is quarterback-needy. We saw moves like that in 2020 when the Niners moved up to the third pick to draft Trey Lance as an example. Of course, the instant reaction for many Bears fans would be outrage, but that’s purely an emotional response. This process of building a competitive roster may not satisfy fans at the moment but could pay huge dividends down the road. You use those draft picks wisely and suddenly in addition to the free agents you can have a very deep roster with a whole of young players on their rookie deals. That gives you free agent flexibility for future years as well. While most of us focus on the here and now and the wins and losses in 2022 NFL franchises are focused on the future far more than most of even consider.
Here’s a franchise with a tougher path at the draft. The Carolina Panthers are easily considered a “quarterback-needy,” franchise. Mayfield, Darnold, and Walker are not quarterbacks that can lead the Panthers back to the playoffs. Problem number one in Carolina? They are projected already to be over the cap for 2023. That means cuts are already going to be necessary. Now add in the fact that with the 5th pick at this time, the Panthers won’t get either of the top two quarterbacks and there’s a definite drop-off after Young and Stroud in the eyes of scouts. Panthers owner David Tepper has already made it clear his desire for a “franchise QB,” If they were to use the 5th pick for let’s say Will Levis (Kentucky) and the concerns we all have in scouting Levis (decision making, making his progressions), all come to pass then the Panthers will continue to struggle on the field, not to mention taking a QB at 5 will be looked at as a “reach,” at that draft position, the criticism of the organization will just get that much worse. There’s also another quarterback already in Carolina in 2022 third round pick Matt Corral. The Panthers war room is in for a very tough series of decisions indeed. They may have to go with the unproven Corral and hope to improve the rest of the offense in the draft. The defense has been improved but they can keep that unit together and improve their biggest needs which are on offense. They also lost draft capital in acquiring Darnold and Mayfield. The consequences of those decisions that haven’t worked out make all of the choices in Carolina that much harder for 2023 and beyond.
So while y’all are enjoying the games that will decide the playoff positions and final draft order, just take a moment to think about all the rest of what goes into building an NFL franchise. It’s an astronomical amount of work and preparation that many simply don’t give that much attention to.
As always find me on Twitter @GregCowboys
