NFL
By: Jesse Rosales
What can be said after 2 weeks of the NHL schedule? Some teams are doing what we expected them to do and other teams are leaving us scratching our heads thinking… what the HECK is going on??! Hockey is an odd game like that. Grown men, wearing boots with steel riveted onto the bottom, chasing a chunk of rubber on an ice surface, at full speed with 9 other 200+ full-grown men at a time. One objective – “Put the biscuit in the basket”. Given how crazy that all sounds for the premise of any game, it is what makes hockey simple yet complicated, beautiful yet violent, and largely unpredictable as a whole. As we move into the NHL schedule for week 3, the separation of the best teams in the league from the very bottom sorrow suckers will start to widen. We will still have to see how the middle of the pack shakes over the coming months, but let’s dive into my top games for this week!
Top 5 Games for NHL Schedule – Week 3
The Penguins look really good. Like scary good. As of this writing, they are 4-0-1 and have scored 6 goals in 4/5 games so far. They currently stand alone in first place in the Metropolitan division and as you might expect, have the best goal differential in the entire NHL. I think the best part of all of it is how great Sydney Crosby has looked. He has 10 points through 5 games and has looked “vintage Crosby”, which is scary for the rest of the league. Meanwhile, the Oilers have not had the start most had expected. They have gone 2-3 through their first 5 games and while McDavid and Draisaitl have looked sharp, they have not gotten much out of the other main contributors on their team. Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, Kane, and Yamamoto, have combined for only 12 points. Goaltending also hasn’t been to where it needs to be, although I do think Jack Campbell will continue to progress as the season moves along. Great matchup here and I’m expecting lots of fireworks as 3 of the top 10 players in the league lace them up in this one.
- 10/24 Maple Leafs @ Golden Knights
Talk about 2 teams with lots of expectations and lots of question marks. The Maple Leafs have played well over the past 5 games, going 4-1. However, that one loss was against the lowly Coyotes in the desert. I would say Auston Matthews has underperformed to this point. He only has 1 goal and a total of 6 points through 6 games. His averages are usually well above that. What has saved the Maples Leafs to this point is the play of netminder Ilya Samsonov. With the injury to starting goalie Matt Murray creating space for him, he now has a save percentage of .938 and goals against average of 1.73 through 4 games. This has been an unexpected happy accident for the Maple Leafs. If Samsonov can continue that kind of play, the Leafs may have found their #1 goalie. On the other side, the Golden Knights are back folks. It’s official. Their stars are performing and their goaltending has held up very well so far. I have to give credit to Jack Eichel. He takes a lot of crap in the media for being overrated, and certainly, at times he has deserved that criticism. He is playing really well to start this season though. This should be another fantastic game and we will see if the Maple Leafs can figure out how to win a game in the dry heat of the American Southwest desert.
What is going on with the Colorado Avalanche? That is the most frequent thing I read about the team on social media. My take is that outside of the first line, this team is very different than last year. It’s going to take time to build the chemistry back after losing key players in the offseason. I think the team has done a great job of filling those talent holes, but it’s obvious that chemistry inside the 2nd and 3rd lines, as well as the special unit lines, are just not there right now. It’s going to take more time, but rest assured Avalanche fans, everything is going to be ok! The Rangers are sitting at 3-1-1 in the Metropolitan division but the shocking losses to the Sharks and the Blue Jackets, can’t sit well. I think it will provide some level of motivation to step it up a notch. Top players Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad have combined for 19 points through their first 5 games and you know their Igor Shesterkin is going to rock solid in net. My 2 favorite teams going head-to-head in what could be a very early preview of this year’s Stanley Cup Finals matchup.
Have the Blues actually played any games this season??!?! Ok…. supposedly they have played 3 games, and what’s more, have won all 3 games. I don’t know what the NHL schedulers were thinking but everyone else is on game 6 or even 7 at this point. I don’t know what to think about the Blues just yet, but I do know that Jordan Binnington has looked fantastic between the pipes. He is top 5 in both goals against average and save percentage among goalies with more than 2 starts, and he just goosed egged what should be one of the highest performing offenses in the league in the Edmonton Oilers. Very impressive. Meanwhile, the Predators have been another one of those teams that have not lived up to expectations. They are on a 5 game-losing streak with their only wins both coming against the San Jose Sharks. Their top players are greatly underperforming, especially star-defense Roman Josi. Through 7 games, Josi has 1 single point and -6 on the plus/minus rating. The Preds tend to play well at home so we will see if they can get right against what has been a flawless start for the Blues.
How about this one! 2 of the youngest and most exciting teams to watch through the first 2 weeks of the season. The Sabres are tied in second place with 8 points in the Atlantic division. Right there with the likes of the Bruins, Maple Leafs, and Panthers! Definitely didn’t see that coming. While the Canadiens haven’t had the same success early on, they have beaten both the Penguins and Maple Leafs through their first 6 games. Montreal has some really exciting players to watch, which is what makes them so entertaining and fun to follow from a general hockey fan perspective. Former first-round draft picks Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky are starting to click and the end result of that is going to be awesome to see come together. Neither of these teams will probably be in the playoff race come springtime, but they will be a force to be reckoned with in the next couple of years with all the young talent they have amassed.
Here are my top bets for NHL Schedule – Week 3.
We’re coming off of what I consider to be a break-even week. Started off the week a little rough, but definitely closed out on a strong note. For the season, we are sitting at 27-25 and up 2.3 total units. I’ve started tracking the puck line, money line, and totals bets separately and it is clear that the totals market is the one to exploit right now. We are sitting at 64% on the totals so far. The number of high-scoring games to start the season has been the most I’ve seen in recent memory and the books are trying to play catch up. I think I’ve only seen a handful of games where the total sits at 5.5. Most of these games are coming in at 6 or 6.5, and I’ve definitely seen more 7s come up. I don’t want to get too crazy here. I love taking the over on a 6 with the way overtime is formatted, but if these lines start pushing to 7, I’ll be taking more unders as a 7 with OT would just be a push and not as appealing.
- 10/24 Peguins/Oilers Over 6.5
- 10/24 Maple Leafs/Golden Knights over 6.5
- 10/25 Wild/Canadiens Over 6
- 10/25 Golden Knights -1.5
- 10/26 Oilers/Blues Under 7
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