By: George Lopez
The Los Angeles Dodgers face division rival San Diego Padres for the second time in three years in a best-of-5 NLDS beginning Tuesday at Dodgers Stadium. The Dodgers finished the season with a franchise-best record of 111-51. The Padres are coming off a Wild Card Series victory over the New York Mets. During the regular season, the Dodgers went 14-5 against the Padres. On paper, this would look like a relatively easy matchup for the Dodgers. In a short series, anything can happen as the Padres proved by beating a 101-win Mets team in New York.
Dodgers Pitching vs Padres Hitting
The Dodgers have announced their starting rotation for the first 3 games of the series
Game 1: Julio Urias 17-7 2.16 ERA
Game 2. Clayton Kershaw 12-3 2.28 ERA
Game 3 Tyler Anderson 15-5 2.57 ERA
The Dodgers will go with a 4 man rotation in this series. The probable stater for game 4 would be Tony Gonsolin who had a 16-1 record with a 2.14 ERA before missing time at the end of the season with a strained forearm. When Gonsolin game back from the injury, he did have enough time to build up his pitch count. If Gonsolin does start, look for him to be on a pitch count. The Dodgers have not announced the playoff roster but it is projected to include starters Andrew Heaney and Dustin May. They would be available to be used behind Gonsolin. A big question mark for the Dodgers going into the postseason is the backend of their bullpen. Craig Kimbrel struggled in his first season as the Dodgers closer. Kimbrel had a 6-7 record with a 3.75 ERA with 22 saves and 5 blown saves. With his struggles, there is a good possibility Kimbrel will not be on the roster for the NLDS. The Dodgers can look to Brusdar Graterol or Evan Phillips to be the closer. If healthy, Blake Treinan remains an option to pitch the 9th.
The Padres are coming into this series with their offense rolling. They scored 7 runs with 4 home runs in less than 5 innings of Mets ace Max Scherzer in game one of the Wild Card series. Jacob DeGrom was able to hold the Padres offense in check in game two but they put up 6 runs in a winner take all game three. In the 3 game series, Jurickson Profar and Juan Soto paced the top of the lineup both hitting .333 against the Mets. At the bottom of the lineup, Austin Nola hit .444 and Trent Grisham hit .500. The Padres offense is coming into this series with a lot of confidence. The Dodgers pitchers will need to continue to pitch the way they did the entire season in order to contain the Padres bats.
Dodgers Offense vs Padres Pitching
Padres starter Joe Musgrove was lights out in game 3 against the Mets. He pitched 7 scoreless innings allowing only 1 hit. The Padres bullpen closed out the game with 2 perfect innings. In game 1, Yu Darvish allowed 1 run on 6 hits in 7 innings. Blake Snell struggled with his control in game 2, issuing 6 walks in less than 4 innings. The Padres have announced Mike Clevinger will start game 1. In the regular season, Clevinger posted a record of 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA. The Dodgers offense is led by Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Freddie Freeman. They form one of the best top third of a lineup in baseball. The Dodgers led Major League Baseball in runs scored and run differential. Towards the end of the season, Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy began to return to the forms Dodgers fans have become accustomed to seeing. The Dodgers offense is at its best when the grind out at-bats and see numerous pitches per at-bat. The Dodgers will need to have this approach against the Padres to build up the Padres pitch counts early in the game, similar to what the Mets did the Snell in game 2 of the wild card series.
Prediction
In the matchup of division rivals, there will be no surprises from either team. The Dodgers and the Padres know what each team will bring to the table. This is going to be a tough, hard-fought series with the Dodgers winning the series 3 games to 1 to advance to their 3rd straight NLCS.