NFL
By: Charlie Gross
The Buffalo Bills host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Orchard Park, NY at 1:00 PM Sunday afternoon. Buffalo is looking to take revenge on Pittsburgh for last year’s opening-day loss in the rain. While both teams have injuries, Pittsburgh is heavily undermanned for this contest.
When the Buffalo Bills have the Ball
It probably sounds silly to say that the 5th best offense in the NFL hasn’t been “firing on all cylinders” but that’s precisely the case for Buffalo. The Bills’ offense has largely been the “Allen to Diggs” show. While that isn’t unexpected, it’s clear that the team was hoping to get a lot of other players involved and so far that hasn’t really materialized for them. Gabe Davis was expected to continue his breakout this season. Dawson Knox has been underutilized to this point and is out for Sunday, which means rookie Quintin Morris has to step up. Rookie James Cook, drafted to be an explosive receiving option out of the backfield, has been putrid so far. Injuries to Jamison Crowder (Broken Ankle), Jake Kumerow (Ankle), and Isaiah McKenzie (Concussion) certainly haven’t helped either.
With all that being said, this is a game that Buffalo Bills could win by three touchdowns or more. Gabe Davis looks to be a full participant in practice this week, while rookie Kahlil Shakir will probably slot into the punt return role and could see playing time in the slot if McKenzie isn’t ready to play.
Luckily for the Bills, the Steelers are missing T.J. Watt, and cornerbacks Ahkello Witherspoon, Levi Wallace, and Cam Sutton are either out or questionable to play. Both starting safeties are also hurt with Terrell Edmonds in concussion protocol and Minkah Fitzpatrick having a knee injury.
It’s hard to see how Pittsburgh will have the horses to stop this Buffalo offense. The Steelers’ defensive line will still present a challenge for the Bills offensive line, but ultimately the Steelers don’t have the talent in the back end to deal with Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox, and a healthy Gabe Davis. Buffalo has struggled to establish an efficient run game but with Josh Allen at quarterback, the run is a threat on every play.
When the Buffalo Bills are on Defense
While the Buffalo Bills secondary has also been ravaged by injuries, they are still holding opponents to a 64.7 passer rating and 2.7 adjusted yards per attempt. Looking specifically at the 11 times Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier have faced off against rookie quarterbacks, the Bills have held them to a 59.5 passer rating, 165 yards per game with only 7 touchdowns allowed to 17 interceptions.
Pittsburgh will start rookie Kenny Pickett, a 2021 1st-round pick and things could get ugly quickly. It looks like the Bills will have most of their injured defensive starters returning but as the stats above will tell you, they’ve been doing pretty good without them. While the Steelers have some dynamic skill position players in Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth, Dionte Johnson, and George Pickens, the offensive line is average at best. Look for Von Miller, Greg Rousseau, A.J. Epenesa, Shaq Lawson, and a possible return of Ed Oliver to cause major problems for the Steelers group up front.
The Steelers run a quick-throw passing system so the sack numbers may not be there for the Buffalo Bills defense this week. However, Buffalos’ ability to disguise coverage should wreak havoc on Kenny Picketts eyes and brain. This could turn into a four-interception, 5 sack game really quickly.
Prediction
Many Steelers faithful will find a way to see a path for their team to keep it close. I think this is going to be a blowout, even with the Buffalo Bills choosing to rest some starters in anticipation of next week’s game with the Chiefs. Buffalo has too much on both sides of the ball. Couple that with a rookie quarterback getting his first start against the league-best defense on the road. I’ll predict a score of 54-6 with Buffalo sitting their starters at some point during the 4th quarter.
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