By: Mark T. Wilson
The Philadelphia 76ers finally put away the Toronto Raptors in their first-round matchup. And their prize? A shot at the top-seeded Miami Heat in the second round. Despite being up 3-0, the 76ers almost let the Raptors back into the series. The reason it even came down to a 6th game was due to the 76ers’ inability to take advantage of mismatches. They can not allow this to happen against one of the best teams in the NBA.
Analysts will point to the 2-2 regular-season record against the Heat. But there are flaws in that. Out of the 4 games, neither team was at full strength. Bam Adebayo missed time. Joel Embiid missed time, hell, James Harden missed his only game he was available to play against the Heat. So, there is no way to really gauge what these teams are like head-to-head.
But here is something the 76ers must figure out against Miami that they proved were cranks in their armor against the Raptors. Rebounding the ball and bench production.
The Raptors were a tough out but this Heat team, they are something different. Against the Raptors, the 76ers did manage to out-rebound them 251-226. This must continue to happen. Good news for the 76ers is that the Heat are not as big as the Raptors were across the board. If Embiid and Harris can control the boards over Abedayo and PJ Tucker, there is a good chance they could run away with this series.
While rebounding is key, this series will come down to bench production.
From the start of the season, this has been an area of concern for the Philadelphia 76ers. Yes, they have 4 starters who can score 20+ every night. Now, with Danny Green doing his best “splash brothers” impersonation, the 76ers have 5 starters hitting double figures nightly. But is that enough to beat Miami?
In their series against the Atlanta Hawks, the Heat used a rotation of 8 players who averaged over 15 minutes per game. The 76ers, on the other hand, used a rotation of six players who played over 15 minutes per game. What this will come down to is which bench can impose their will the most. The Heat are not as big as the Raptors but their perimeter players off the bench can cause issues for the 76ers.
On the other side of the coin, the 76ers will need their bench players to start producing. While Doc Rivers always has at least one or two starters on the floor with them, they will still need to make sold contributions. Against the Raptors, Georges Niang led the 76ers’ bench with just 20 shot attempts in six games. On the other side of the floor, Tyler Herro alone took 64 for the Heat in 5 games.
If Shake Milton, Paul Reed, and Matisse Thybulle can’t find the bottom of the net, this series will be over in four games. The 76ers starting 5 is deadly as we’ve seen them score over 130 points twice in the playoffs already. However, what happens if the shots aren’t falling or foul trouble occurs? The Heat is a top defensive team. Look how they contained Trae Young. The Hawks players were not able to step up to the challenge.
The Raptors were just happy to be there considering the injuries they faced. They had nothing to lose. The Heat are a veteran bunch with a championship on their mind and best believe that Jimmy Butler is out to prove a point to his old team.
The Philadelphia 76ers will go as far as their bench takes them. While Joel Embiid could walk away as the NBA MVP this season, the 76ers will falter in the second round if they can’t get production from their bench. This has been a consistent issue from them all year and this series against the Miami Heat won’t be any different. Rivers is dealing with a limited bench rotation and he must make the proper adjustments.