NFLBy: Keith Richards
While not nearly as bad as the MLB, there are many unwritten rules to the NFL. For instance, how teams draft with their high round draft picks usually faces a lot of scrutinies. Conventional wisdom says to draft the best player available, but is that always best practice? It’s something I’ve always questioned. Is it better to just select the best player available or the best player available that fits your needs?
First, I’ll start with the logic of drafting the best player available. Also, let’s make this year’s teams with a high round draft picks the example. The Bengals, Dolphins, and Chargers all desperately need quarterbacks. All three teams pick within the first six picks. According to ESPN’s best available players, there is only one quarterback within that range: Joe Burrow.
Now, the next best, Tua Tagovailoa, is not far outside that range. He sits as the seventh-best player available. So, for the Dolphins, that’s not too much of a reach. Their odds of drafting an offensive player in the first round are sky-high. However, for the Chargers, if Burrow and Tua are both off the board, they face a dilemma. The next best quarterback is Jordan Love at 21st. After him, it’s Justin Herbert at 27th. Is picking the equivalent of a last first-round pick with the sixth pick the best option? Besides, the Chargers have other needs as well.
The LA Chargers’ most significant need is quarterback, but they need edge rushers too. The team will not be able to sign both Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram to lucrative contracts. More than likely, both Derrick Brown and Isaiah Simmons would be available at pick-six. Also, both would be valuable additions to the team, but is it worth passing them up to reach for a quarterback?
Personally, I would say no. If Tua is not there at 6, the Chargers pick fifth in the second round. Love or Herbert may still be there. If not, it would not be too much of reach at that spot over drafting Love or Herbert sixth overall. However, it’s a matter of perspective in the end. For instance, what the Cowboys did with Ezekiel Elliott in 2016.
In 2016, Dallas drafted Elliott with their first (fourth overall) pick. It’s a move that many questioned. When Tony Romo’s previous season ended in injury, many thought a quarterback would be their pick. Instead, the Cowboys went with Elliott. In the process, Dallas passed over the likes of Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Paxton Lynch.
In the fourth round, the Cowboys drafted Dak Prescott. Prescott went on to lead the team to 13-3 that season. Wentz and Goff have led successful squads, but whether or not they’re that much better than Prescott is subjective. Lynch is, well, a disappointment. In hindsight, it appears that Dallas made the right move. Indeed, it is a game of Russian Roulette with these high round draft picks. It’s not a position I envy.
This year’s draft is an intriguing one. You’d have to go back to 2014 to find a draft where that was not more than one quarterback taken within the first ten picks. Also, you’d have to go back to the year before that to find only one quarterback taken in the first round, period. I do not see a scenario where only one QB is gone in the first round. However, I expect a few defenders to go early.
Currently, 22 of the 32 NFL teams have higher odds of drafting an offensive player over a defensive player in the first round. (Duff, Sports Betting Dime, 2020) You’d be hard-pressed to find a team that doesn’t need a defensive player. With the talent available, many organizations should look at drafting defense with a high round draft pick. Will they do so? Come and find out live on Thursday with Nuts and Bolts Sports!
