NFL
By: Stephen Garner
The first round of the 2022 NBA Playoffs did not see any game sevens, but was nothing short of entertaining and engaging.
There was some predictability as the higher-seeded teams all won in each series, antics-galore, and an overall high level of competition that both saw and displayed the difference between “82-game guys and 16-game guys,” as Draymond Green famously coined a few years back.
As the sun has set on the opening round in this quest for the Larry O’Brien trophy in the NBA’s 75th rendition, let’s take a look at my looming question for each series of the Conference Semi-Finals series.
Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks
The Suns have won nine-straight outings against Luka and company. In that has been involved a few different renditions of each team, but the protagonists have remained.
It’s been proven that when the Suns are able to dictate, and they can do so in many ways, they win and do so demonstratively.
They have one of the most hell-bent and prolific dictators and closers in the league at the helm in Chris Paul, and he orchestrates the symphony that is the Suns half court offense with a propensity of wizardry that is second to none.
The Mavericks had the second best record in the league, after the Suns, since the turn of the calendar.
In that, they were driven by the league’s 4th best defensive rating (109.3) and 6th best half court defense (93.9).
Eight of their nine-man playoff rotation registers at 6’5 or over, showing why they’re so good in their system defensively.
It’s all blocks and elbows for them, and they use their length and range to induce deflections, neutralize the three point line (11th in frequency of attempts, 1st in opponent 3p% at 28%.)
They also deploy a switching scheme and cover well for each other in help and communication.
The three-point line is always relevant, but stylistically the Mavericks invite two’s, and the Suns have two of the league’s best from the in-between in Paul and Booker, including the former as one of the best ever. They couple those two with proven guys who can also get it done from there in Bridges and Ayton.
What can the Dallas Mavericks take away from the Phoenix Suns?
Phoenix has the 2nd best half court offense in these playoffs, and that’s with three games where their leading scorer was out.
They have infinite optionality in their attack, and see consistently find what a defense doesn’t want to do, and forces them to do it over and over.
If the Mavericks can’t dictate anything defensively, theyl fall into a quick dead end trying to outscore this juggernaut as they also will make life tough scoring for Dallas on the other end.
Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks
A season-series with much of nothing to take from, this will be a fresh matchup.
The Celtics and Bucks both enjoyed making quick work of their first round opponents, and both executed schemes that likely will not translate to this Semi-Finals bout.
Milwaukee sans Middleton takes on a unique look offensively, after already having a somewhat lacking flair to their approach. Nonetheless, being without their tough shot maker in high leverage moments is not ideal. They’ll be more lenient upon their staunch half court defense here, and their transition attack.
Boston enjoyed absolutely executing their scheme of organized randomness and active help against Brooklyn. Then saw Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart beautifully orchestrating on the other end, with the former exhibiting growth in playmaking off of the gravity of his scoring in a manner that we had not seen prior to on this stage.
Giannis poses a completely different threat to that of Durant or Irving in terms of how he scores. His shot profile is that of a prolific paint dweller, with a multitude of ways to manufacture looks from there.
Can the Celtics find a scheme, and do they have the personnel to neutralize some of Giannis’ effectiveness in the paint?
He’s displayed plenty of growth as a passer all season, with the activity in trapping and the personnel compiled for Boston, his passing and both the strategic placement and efficiency of the Bucks and their shooters will be a huge dynamic to watch for in this series.
Of note: the collective size of Milwaukee, and versatility in it, can pose as a true challenge for Boston as they’ve intentionally deployed all three of Portis-Antetokounmpo-Lopez in moments, that lineup being a +5.8 in roughly 10 minutes a games, typically opening & closing.
My question in this series, however, is how does Milwaukee defend vs Boston?
Considering needed uptick in scoring from Holiday sans Middleton, they’ll likely look to reserve deploying him on the likes of Tatum or Brown early, saving that for key moments and the 4th quarter.
Past Holidays point of attack proponent though, how do Giannis and Portis look defending ball screens? Drop coverage against Tatum/Brown/Smart/Pritchard/White is interesting, and allows their help defense to stay solid.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors
A lot has changed since their meeting in last seasons Play-In tournament, near a year ago to date.
As they did in the 2021-22 regular season with 57.6, the exuberant Grizzlies lead the playoffs with 53 points in the paint.
Morant led the regular season there with 16.6 a night, and presently has 11.7 points per in the playoffs which ranks 10th.
His unique rim pressure from the head of the snake poses a threat to all point of attack defenders. As, containing him and his array of eschewing maneuvers, and creativity, is as daunting as any task in the league defensively.
For the Warriors, they’ve gone almost exclusively to the “lethal weapon” lineup of Curry/Poole/Wiggins/Thompson/Green and reaped the benefits that that lineup wrecks in havoc on opponents.
That lineup is a +4.6 and has the all-encompassing dynamic of versatility offensively to exploit any weaknesses of a defense.
It’s 98th percentile in efficiency differential (+22.6) in 81 total possessions.
Pull up shooting, spot shooting, movement shooting, playmaking, secondary playmaking, randomness, rim pressure, that lineup quite literally has it all offensively, and no teams shown to have solved it yet.
It’s a large part in why the Warriors have the best half court offense through the first round.
My questions here, however, comes in two directions.
Can the Warriors contain Morant?
Should Morant get a feel for how the Warriors are defending him and can begin to dictate exactly what the Warriors do with Draymond in help, that’s an avenue for them to apply pressure.
Golden State flows best when Draymond can play center field in help with virtually no responsibility. They can only deploy that specific coverage when the ball is consistently contained. If Ja is dribbling rampant and generating paint touches-galore, that will keep Draymond occupied and engaged in help. That will also, in turn, continuously engage and pull at the strings of Golden States help defense principles, creating looks for Bane (23.5 PPG on 49.5/48.2/90 shooting including 48% on non corner threes).
If they can fluster Ja in ways similar to, yet more sustainably than, Minnesota, they can dictate things and we’ve all seen what a series where the Warriors dictate from the jump looks like.
Can Jaren Jackson Jr stay out of foul trouble?
They Michigan State product has been one of the best young talents in the league the last two seasons and has enjoyed some dominance in stretches. However, these playoffs have rendered him out of whack at times due to his rhythm being thrown off due to foul trouble.
He ranks league bottoms (4th percentile) in fouls per play, indicative of the struggles in consistency at times the Grizzlies saw in round one as Jackson Jr struggled to stay on the floor, providing the defevsive player of the year and uber-versatility that unlocks this teams peak play.
Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers
The Heat come into this series with both Butler (right knee inflammation) and Lowry (right hamstring strain) hampered by injury, missing the tail end of their gentleman’s sweep of Atlanta.
Philadelphia will be without Joel Embiid as he tends to an orbital fracture sustained in closing out the Toronto Raptors in game six
Embiid has been playing through pain this postseason after sustaining a torn ligament in his right thumb — and now this orbital fracture, concussion, and will now be sidelined. 🙏🏽 https://t.co/3q9BPF9VAv
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 30, 2022
How long he is out will determine exactly how this series goes. If he misses it’s entirety, this series is surely done in short fashion via a sweep or gentleman’s sweep.
Aside from his health, my looming question is, what does Philadelphia do independent of Harden?
The Heat have arguably the most versatility defensively (outside of Boston) and with that, they have the ability to apply a plethora of schemes to stagnate and neutralize Hardens rhythm.
In that, when he’s trapped or they scheme the ball out of his hands, who can consistently exploit advantages and apply pressure in an increased role?
Can Tyrese Maxey play his free flowing and attacking style against the strength of a Heat defense that does well warding off the paint in help?
Maxey has had a track-like approach since sharing the backcourt with one James Harden. The dynamic shown early on was that he would get touches and be their sole dynamic of rim pressure, and they would take advantage of his dynamic via hit-aheads in transition as well as a point of emphasis with him in catching either on the move or with neutrality established (typically catching with both feet in the air for his most explosive starting position, not unlike a sprinter out of their starting blocks, if you will).
For however long Embiid will be out, and honestly even with Embiid in the lineup, more of an emphasis on Maxey being “let loose” to push pace in transition wreck havock (1.35 points per possession) is what I’m expecting.
Though the matchup saw players out of the lineup, one of their late season bouts saw Maxey spring free, and that certainly isn’t nothing, considering he’s ever-present in his style and his spot profile was on par with expectations.
His element of suddenness will be heavily relied upon maybe in this series more then any other as, when the Heats defense gets set in the half court, there’s inherent risk that is increases.
Can Tobias Harris find a touch and feel playing off the attention Hardens sure to get?
He averaged 19 on 51.7/47.1 shooting against them in the regular season, and they’ll need every bit of that to translate here in this moment.
Each of these two is sure to have a tough match-up checking them for every minute they’re on the floor. So expending energy on that end is inevitable.
If they can find a way to control pace and make shots, they’ll give themselves a puncher’s chance in waning moments
