NFL
By Keith Richards
The first quarter of the season is now complete. With the Denver Broncos having played in four games, Quarter One is in the history books, and we’re here to review it. For the offense and defense collectively, we will review the good, the bad, and the promising. With Denver struggling to a 1-3 record in Quarter One, there is plenty to discuss; both good and bad. So, let’s ride!
Quarter One Report – The Good
Overall, the offense of the Denver Broncos has made significant progress under Sean Payton in Quarter One. Over four games, Payton’s offense, led by Russell Wilson, is averaging 25 points per game, 19 first downs per game (76 total), 237.8 passing yards per game, 2.75 sacks taken per game (11), 95.5 rushing yards per game, and 349 total yards per game.
When compared to the 2022 season, everything outside of total yards per game, and rushing yards per game, is on pace for an improvement. In 2022, the Broncos averaged 16.9 points per game, 17.6 first downs per game (323 total), 211.3 passing yards per game, 3.7 sacks allowed per game (63), 113.8 rushing yards per game, and 349.5 total yards per game.
For sacks, if the Broncos stay on the same Quarter One pace, it would be a decrease of 16 sacks allowed over the entire season. Another improvement that has contributed to the growth of the offense is third-down efficiency. In 2022, the Broncos complete 29.1% of their third-down plays. On the 2023 Quarter One pace, Denver would end the season with a 39.1% third-down efficiency. That’s a 10% increase over last season. Who has made this happen for the offense? Russell Wilson and Marvin Mims.
As I stated in the Week 4 Preview, where Wilson has thrived the most through Quarter One is with his deep passing. Through four weeks, Russ has completed 89 of 132 passes (67%) for 1,014 yards (9th in the NFL), has thrown nine touchdown passes (tied for 2nd in the NFL), and has a rating of 106.7 (3rd in the NFL).
On the deep ball, his 7.7 air yards per attempt rank 9th in the NFL. In addition, Wilson has completed 13 passes of 20+ yards (9th), seven passes of 30+ yards (5th), five passes of 40+ yards (1st), and three passes of 50+ yards (tied for 1st). Even with the dip in rushing yards per game, the deep ball has improved through Quarter One under Sean Payton. The largest benefactor of the deep ball has been rookie Marvin Mims.
ANDY CROSS/MEDIANEWS GROUP/THE DENVER POST VIA GETTY IMAGES
The explosive rookie is tied for first in the NFL with two catches for 50+ yards and is first in the NFL with three catches for 40+ yards. Catches for 30+ yards? Yes, Marvin is second in the league with five of those. Did I mention that Mims also has a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown? Needless to say, Mims has been a pillar of the Broncos’ explosive plays. In addition, Marvin Mims leads the team through Quarter One with 242 yards receiving and 26.9 yards per catch.
Quarter One Report – The Bad
While all of the good through Quarter One is the offense, all of the bad through Quarter One is the defense. Bad is an understatement for this Denver Broncos defense through four games. A better word would be embarrassing, disgusting, or laughable, which is shocking.
In 2022, the defense was the pillar of the team. The thought was that if the offense was fixed, Denver could make some noise. Well, the offense has improved, but the defense is unrecognizable.
In 2023 through the 1st Quarter, the Broncos’ defense has allowed 1,846 total yards and 461.5 yards per game; both are last in the NFL. Their 1,119 total passing yards per game is second-to-last in the league; that’s also second-to-last place with 285.5 yards per game. Rush defense isn’t much better.
Their 704 total rushing yards allowed are last in the league, which is also last in the league at 176 yards per game. The worst of it? The Denver defense has allowed 150 total points for 37.5 points per game.
By comparison, in 2022, the Denver Broncos’ defense allowed 5,440 total yards and 320 yards per game; 8th and 7th respectively. Their 3,574 total passing yards and 210.2 passing yards per game were 13th and 12th respectively. The rush defense was much better with 1,866 total yards allowed and 109.8 yards per game; both 10th. The 2022 Denver defense allowed 359 total points (14th) and 21.1 points per game (14th).
Through Quarter One, the Denver defense is on track to allow 638 total points in 2023. That’s a 259-point INCREASE from last season. If the passing and rushing defense stay on pace, they would allow 4,854 and 2,992 total yards for the season. That’s a 1,280 and 1,106 total yards INCREASE over last season. No matter how much the offense improves, if the defense does not as well, the Broncos are in for another disastrous season.
Quarter One Report – The Promising
Though it doesn’t seem like it, the Denver offensive line is improving through the first quarter; particularly the pass blocking. Through the 1st quarter, the Broncos’ O-Line has a 61% pass-block win rate (PBWR), which is 10th in the NFL. The run-block win rate (RBWR) is not bad either at 72%, which is 11th in the league. Llyod Cushenberry has been exemplary. Cushenberry is seventh in the NFL (for interior linemen) with a 78% RBWR.
Both Cushenberry and Bolles rank high for PBWR in the league for offensive tackle and interior offensive line. At tackle, Bolles is 15th with 92% PBWR. In the interior, Cushenberry is 7th with a 97% PBWR. The success in the PBWR would explain the decrease in sacks. What’s puzzling is the decrease in rushing yards per game given that the RBWR is suitable as well.
There is promise on defense and his name is Nik Bonita. Bonito is 16th in the league amongst edge rushers with a 21% pass-rush win rate. The second-year player is on track for 15 sacks in 2023, which would be an increase of 13.5 sacks over last season. With Randy Gregory being recently released, Nik should see his snap percentage increase, and his numbers could improve.
Quarter One Grade
Overall, even though the offense has improved significantly, I’m still giving Denver a D- for Quarter One. The Bronco’s defense has truly been that bad. Things don’t get much easier for Quarter Two. Denver plays the Chiefs twice, the Jets, and the Packers. Theoretically, the Jets and Packers should be manageable…but that was the case for the Bears. We see what happened there. If the defense can improve, the grade for Quarter Two will be much better.
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