NFL
By: Greg Rector
The 2023 NFL Draft season as with every other previous incarnation is in full swing with the All-Star games that have been played and the upcoming showcases in particular the East-West Shrine Bowl and the Senior Bowl. You will see players make exciting plays during these games however what most won’t see are the practices where scouts and those in attendance can focus on the meat and potatoes of the process. The various drills are all designed to see what these players are capable of in various areas. For me, these drills are an equalizer for the defensive players versus what you see in actual games. The rules during games favor the offenses of course.
One group that tends to get roasted is the offensive lineman during this process. For me, I focus much more on their technique and not so much on their physical traits when I see them going through the drills. I want to see their work habits. The one thing that will happen is certain players will shine and others will appear to struggle.
The problem comes when people forget their actual tape in real games and focus on this part of the process, giving it more weight than it should. These are “all-star” games folks, where no one is at truly full speed, these games just like their professional counterparts are not the real deal. Make no mistake what we see of these players matters. Scouts are watching work habits, and how coachable these draft prospects are. In some cases, they are looking to see a small school or non-power 5 school player and see if they can step up facing better opposition. It all matters in the evaluation process, but once again it is only another step to the 2023 NFL draft in April.
Settle Down
More and more we are seeing players scream up the various “big board” player rankings based on the “traits” certain players have. Currently, we have two examples one on each side of the football. On offense once Kayshon Boutte of LSU announced he was entering the draft within 2 days he was suddenly appearing in the top 20 of player rankings. Part of the reason he was almost considered by consensus the pre-season WR1 on almost everyone’s lists. The list makers and those who “rank” had a built-in reason to move him up so high so quickly, their EGOS folks.
Make no mistake evaluators have egos and become quite agitated when they are challenged. Look no further than Mel and Todd going back and forth on their mock draft shows. Now I’m not saying Boutte isn’t a good player. What I will say is that the actual tape versus his “traits” aren’t equal. I’m sorry Tigers fans but he was not my WR1 before the season began, he has talent but is he suddenly worthy of a first-round grade the way so many immediately jumped him up to? Not from what I saw on tape in 2021 and 2022. It’s even more blatant when it comes to “traits” versus production on the defensive side of the ball. Redshirt sophomore Lukas Van Ness from Iowa was not even a starter for the Hawkeyes folks, yet here he is being ranked by some places in their top ten of prospects.
Now Van Ness has flashed with some nice plays for Iowa, but one thing I have warned about many players for quite a while (more so with QBs) is to beware of the one-year wonder. Van Ness has talent but my goodness folks watch him on tape and his technique is very limited, yes the physicality is there but one thing you look for in pass rushers is the ability to use a variety of different moves, their hand technique and so many other details that matter at the next level. Van Ness has very little to go off of here. This applies to even the consensus Edge1 player Will Anderson Jr of Alabama but we have far more actual tape to work with there. Anderson Jr for me has two glaring issues, he was mediocre against the run and oh boy did he miss a ton of tackles in both 2021 and 2022. I don’t expect college players to be perfect, that wouldn’t be fair as even the best in the NFL never attain perfection.
What you want to see is an improvement from season to season and with Anderson Jr, there wasn’t any in both of those areas. In the NFL those big boys at the tackle spots are just waiting to blow him up, they are waiting to pancake him on a running play and I won’t be surprised one bit when it happens. The bottom line with all of this is to have folks settle down on their expectations for these players. Yes, they are good football players and they have things that we all like as to why they are rated highly. The overreaction to what they will be at the next level though is unfair and unrealistic, especially when you focus so much on the “ceiling” for the player rather than have a realistic basis of who they are as players, not just how they test. College programs are worried about winning and don’t as many think they would focus on teaching the details of each position. Why do you think there are so many off-season position camps around these days?
Trust Your Eyes
Don’t for one minute buy into what Mel Kiper and Todd McShay or any other evaluator say about a player. Do that for yourself. trust what you see, when you look at the trenches, watch to see a defensive lineman’s win rate versus an offensive lineman’s, and vice versa watch for the offensive lineman’s ability to win his battles. Watch a receiver’s ability to get open and watch the defensive back’s ability to cover and make adjustments based on a receiver’s moves. Watch the games from that perspective and not just the hype surrounding a player. If you can’t do this objectively, then don’t partake in any of this part of the game of football.
I will say it over and over again, none of us are perfect at evaluating, we miss things, and we might not have seen a player’s best game nor may we have had the chance to see their worst game. You’re setting yourself up for disappointment if you can’t look at both the good and the bad when evaluating players. Enjoy the All-Star games but after doing so go back and watch someone you hear about in real games and ask yourself does the tape match the hype player A or B is now getting. Remember these are showcase opportunities only all part of a much larger process. It’s a tendency for folks to attach a player to your favorite NFL team, try not to do that, and leave that for your mock drafting which is an entirely different animal from this part of the process.
