NFL
What an exciting first slate of football games last weekend. Week one gave us some thrilling matchups, a few blowouts, and the usual set of “how did he do that?” moments. The Cardinals, Rams, and Chiefs looked awesome as expected, while the Bills, Titans, and Packers disappointed in a big way. I won’t waste your time with a lengthy recap, as we have lots of picks to get to for this upcoming schedule of games, so click here for a full week one recap of the NFL season.
Before we get to the 2021 NFL week two gambling picks, here’s a quick note on where I’m getting the odds for each matchup, as well as how you could earn some free gambling money to put on some of the games. For this week, all odds and bets are pulled directly from Jazz Sportsbook. Be sure to head over to register and use, new promo code “TEAM” for a 125% Free Play up to $1,000. Additionally, each new member can earn a $10 Free Bet with a minimum deposit of $25.
Let’s briefly recap our middle-of-the-road week one…
Week One Team Bets Recap (1 Win, 5 Losses)
Eagles / Falcons over 48.5 points Χ
Vikings -3 at Bengals / Panthers -4.5 vs. Jets Χ
Broncos (-3) at Giants (-120): 27-13 √
Buccaneers -3.5 / Bills -2.5; 4-point teaser Χ
Buccaneers -2.5 / 49ers -2.5 / Rams -2.5; 5-point teaser Χ
Packers (-3.5) at Saints Χ
Week One Player Props Bets Recap (4 Wins, 1 Loss)
Patrick Mahomes over 14.5 rushing yards vs. the Browns: 18 √
Kareem Hunt over 16.5 receiving yards vs. the Chiefs: 28 √
Marquez Callaway over 47.5 receiving yards vs. the Packers: 14 Χ
Lamar Jackson over 70.5 rushing yards vs. the Raiders: 81 √
Damien Harris over 69.5 rushing yards vs. the Dolphins: 100 √
Combined record for the 2021 season: 5-6
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Woof. That was rough. Vegas took a lot of money from folks and experts across the country this past weekend, as underdogs won or beat the spread at a near-historic rate. Some of these were close, with Minnesota and Tampa Bay costing themselves the cover with fumbles at the end of regulation/overtime. Atlanta’s offense sputtered quickly, and Green Bay/Buffalo simply failed to show up against weaker teams (although the Steelers defense is not to be trifled with). But in this world, you have to have a short memory and move on, so let’s get to it with the NFL week two gambling picks. Check out the full schedule for week two here.
Player Prop Bets
Antonio Gibson (WFT) over 69.5 rushing yards vs. New York (N)
Damien Harris (NE) over 73.5 rushing yards at New York (A)
Justin Herbert (LAC) over 303.5 passing yards vs. Dallas
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) over 43.5 receiving yards vs. New Orleans
Nyheim Hines (IND) over 3.5 receptions vs. Los Angeles (N)
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) over 59.5 rushing yards at Los Angeles (A)
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Giants at Football Team (-4)
This is a tougher game to pick after it was announced that starter Ryan Fitzpatrick is going on IR with his hip injury. Instead, fourth-year man Taylor Heinicke will make just his third career start, after he went toe-to-toe with Tom Brady in Washington’s 31-23 playoff loss last January. Heinicke went 11-for-15 with 122 yards and a touchdown in relief of Fitzpatrick on Sunday, so I think he has the familiarity with this roster for there to not be a significant drop-off in production. Not to mention he’s got a bevy of weapons including Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, and Logan Thomas at his disposal.
As for the Giants, they were picked apart at home by Denver in another disappointing loss by Daniel Jones. The former Duke quarterback threw for 267 yards and a touchdown but had another costly fumble to increase his league lead over the past three years. The Giants’ offense looked lethargic at times, and their defense leaves a ton to be desired. If it weren’t for it being a division game, I’d take Washington by close to double digits, but I still believe they get our picks started off on the right foot Thursday evening. Football Team 20, Giants 14
Vikings at Cardinals (-4)
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals looked as impressive as any team in week one, trouncing the Titans 38-13. Murray showcased his wild throwing and running abilities, while defensive end Chandler Jones recorded a career-high five sacks in the game. Arizona looks to be a more polished group this season and could be part of an NFC West group that sees all four teams make the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Vikings struggled to contain Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and the lowly Bengals as they lost in overtime to start the season. Kirk Cousins and the offense looked good at times, but the Cardinals will present an even tougher task on both sides of the ball than Cincinnati. I think Arizona jumps out to a big lead in their home opener and never looks back. Cardinals 38, Vikings 21
Vikings/Cardinals over 51 points
Doubling up on this game, I’m taking the over of 51 points to hit rather easily. The Cardinals have one of the biggest quick-strike offenses in the league, with weapons at each skill position, while the Vikings have Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson to put up points in a hurry. With Minnesota’s porous defense surely to be a weak spot all season, I think Murray and Arizona can approach 40 points once again, this time in front of their home crowd. That leaves the Vikings to just score a few meaningless touchdowns to have this over push. Cardinals 38, Vikings 21
Rams (-4) at Colts
The Rams played about as great of a first game with new quarterback Matthew Stafford as they could have hoped against the Bears in week one. Stafford moved the ball downfield with ease and showcased his usual big arm with a few long touchdown passes. The Rams have so much talent on both sides of the ball that they ended up being my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They now get to travel to Indianapolis to face a Colts team that gave up some deep plays of their own in a loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Carson Wentz had some good moments in his first Colts start, but also looked a step behind at times forcing throws into the defense. This Rams offense is arguably even better than Seahawks, so I think Los Angeles goes into Indy and comes out 2-0, which is needed given the talent quality of the NFC West. Rams 27, Colts 17
Patriots (-1.5), Cardinals (+0.5), Broncos (-2) 4-point teaser
I was really encouraged by my first two teasers of the year last week, even though they didn’t all hit. A Chris Godwin fumble late, and a poor Bills performance against a vaunted Steelers defense were the only marks on an otherwise strong set of picks. For this week, we’re going with three teams that have very favorable matchups against poor defenses. While I don’t love the idea of Denver being on the road (and East coast) back-to-back weeks, the Jacksonville roster is just below average and the front seven of the Broncos should be able to pressure Trevor Lawrence most of the day. I’m not sure how the Jaguars score more than two touchdowns in this matchup.
As for the Patriots, they lost a close battle at home against the Dolphins in week one on a late Damien Harris fumble, but I’m encouraged by the quarterback play of Mac Jones. The rookie looked very comfortable in his first career start, and the New England line should do a decent job of protecting him, and giving the running backs holes to run through against a bad Jets defense. A two-point or more win at the Jets is incredibly favorable for a Bill Belichick coached team.
In our final matchup for this teaser, we’re adding the Cardinals in some capacity for the third time (dangerous I know) at home against the Vikings. As previously stated, the poor Minnesota defense won’t be able to contain Murray and the high-powered offense, which is basically just an evolved version of the Cincinnati one that torched the Vikings. Plus, with it being a teaser, we just need Arizona to get the win by any means necessary. Patriots 23, Jets 10 | Cardinals 38, Vikings 21 | Broncos 28, Jaguars 14
Ravens at Chiefs (-3.5)
The Chiefs overcame a 12-point halftime deficit to beat a feisty Browns team in the fourth quarter, behind another incredible Patrick Mahomes performance. There’s simply no quarterback in the stratosphere of Mahomes right now, and it seems with each week, his future Hall-of-Fame resume grows. He’s never lost a game in September and last week was about as close as it will get this year. Baltimore did the best they could putting the pieces together against the Raiders, but the offensive line is already a concern and there aren’t enough weapons at receiver for Lamar Jackson once again. Jackson was really good Monday night, but even he isn’t enough to tackle the two-time defending AFC champions. The Ravens’ home crowd will keep them in it early, but just like in week one, expect the Chiefs to pull away in the second half. Chiefs 33, Ravens 24
Bills (-3) at Dolphins
The Bills laid an egg at home against the Steelers plain and simple last week. Josh Allen, the sexy MVP pick before the season began, looked flustered and constantly checking over his shoulder for T.J. Watt all game. With that said, he’s still an élite quarterback with Stefon Diggs as his top receiver. That’s a combo I’m willing to bet on having a great week against the Dolphins’ defense. Not to mention head coach Sean McDermott will surely have his team coming up with much more energy. They have Super Bowl aspirations, and two poor weeks to start the year is not the way to go about achieving that dream.
As for Miami, they went into New England and beat the Patriots in week one. That’s not a phrase most teams get to say in the last 20 years. However, Tua Tagovailoa was inconsistent for most of the afternoon, and the running game offered little as well. It wasn’t the prettiest win, and the Bills will present a much tougher test for the Dolphins’ defense. I think this is competitive for three quarters, but Josh Allen takes over late and the game essentially ends on a Tagovailoa interception. Bills 30, Dolphins 20
Check out the full schedule for week two in the NFL here.
Player Futures Gambling Props Update
Amari Cooper under 1,150 receiving yards: Currently at 139 yards
Josh Allen over 4,500 passing yards: Currently at 270 yards
Josh Allen over 41.5 pass/rush TD’s: Currently at 1 total touchdown
Josh Allen to win MVP: Currently out of the MVP race after a subpar week one
Davante Adams over 1300 receiving yards: Currently at 56 yards
Christian McCaffrey over 15.5 total TD’s: Currently at zero TD’s
Antonio Gibson over 1,025 rushing yards: Currently at 90 yards
Team Future Win Totals Update
Bills over 11 wins: Currently 0-1
Bills 12-17 wins: Currently 0-1
Bucs over 11.5 wins: Currently 1-0
Texans/Lions parlay under 4.5 wins each: Currently 1-0 and 0-1
Lions under 5 wins: Currently 0-1
Giants under 7 wins: Currently 0-1
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